HZ post-vaccination dynamics obtained by adopting the <i>parallel</i> fit approach.

<p>Top row. Yearly incidence of HZ (average in dark green, 95% CI in light green),of natural HZ – i.e., by HZ cases occurring among unvaccinated individuals that have experienced natural varicella – (average in red,95% CI in orange) and of HZ caused by the vaccine strain (average in blue, 95% CI in light blue) per 1,000 individuals as obtained by adopting the <i>parallel</i> fit approach and by simulating the two-dose scenario, which assumes the administration of a first dose to 1 year-old individuals (90% coverage) and a second dose to 5 years-old individuals (80% coverage), in Finland (a) in Italy (b) and in the UK (c). Results are based on 1,000 model realizations.</p

The impact of VZV vaccination on varicella incidence.

<p>Top row. Yearly incidence of varicella (average in dark green, 95% CI in light green) and of natural varicella (average in red, 95% CI in orange) per 1,000 individuals as predicted by simulating a single vaccine dose administered to 1 year-old infants with 100% coverage in Finland (a) in Italy (b) and in the UK (c). Mid row. As the top row but obtained by considering 70% coverage in Finland (d) in Italy (e) and in the UK (f). Bottom row. As the top row but for the two-dose scenario, which assumes the administration of a first dose to 1 year-old individuals (90% coverage) and a second dose to 5 years-old individuals (80% coverage) in Finland (g) in Italy (h) and in the UK (i). Results are based on 1,000 model realizations.</p

VZV seroprevalence, HZ incidence and boosting incidence in Finland, Italy and the UK.

<p>Top Row. VZV seroprevalence by age as observed in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060732#pone.0060732-Nardone1" target="_blank">[1]</a> (in green) and as predicted by the model (average in blue, 95% CI in cyan) for Finland (a), Italy (b), UK (c). Mid Row. Yearly HZ incidence by age(cases per 1,000 individuals) as observed in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060732#pone.0060732-Gialloreti1" target="_blank">[3]</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060732#pone.0060732-vanHoek1" target="_blank">[23]</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060732#pone.0060732-Karhunen1" target="_blank">[28]</a> (in green) and as predicted by the model (average in blue, 95% CI in cyan) for Finland (d), Italy (e), UK (f); Bottom row. Predicted HZ susceptibility age profile for Finland (g), Italy (h), UK (i). Results are based on 1,000 model realizations.</p

The impact of different vaccination schedules and coverages on HZ incidence.

<p>Top row. Yearly incidence of HZ (average in dark green, 95% CI in light green), of natural HZ (i.e., HZ cases occurring among unvaccinated individuals that have experienced natural varicella (average in red, 95% CI in orange) and of HZ caused by the vaccine strain (average in blue, 95% CI in light blue) per 1,000 individuals as predicted by simulating a single vaccine dose administered to 1 year-old infants with 100% coverage in Finland (a) in Italy (b) and in the UK (c). Mid row. As the top row but obtained by considering 70% coverage in Finland (d) in Italy (e) and in the UK (f). Bottom row. As the top row but for the two-dose scenario, which assumes the administration of a first dose to 1 year-old individuals (90% coverage) and a second dose to 5 years-old individuals (80% coverage) in Finland (g) in Italy (h) and in the UK (i). Results are based on 1,000 model realizations.</p

Parameters employed.

<p>Model parameters, description and values considered for simulations.</p