31 research outputs found
Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit
This paper challenges and complements existing studies on the economic impact of Brexit providing a discussion of the UK's decision to leave the EU and how it will affect international trade networks and value-added. Using the World Input-Output Database, we develop a multi-sector inter-country model that allows us to identify the channels through which the economic effects of Brexit would propagate. The inclusion of global value chains and indirect Brexit effects in the model leads to estimates that diverge with the results of the main literature. Indeed our findings, suggest that Brexit could be risky and costly not only for the UK but also for many EU countries. Furthermore, building on the Dietzenbacher and Lahr (2013) method of hypothetical expansion, we develop a second model and present the first empirical analysis on the consequences of domestic import substitution and trade diversion policies in Input-Output schemes. We found that allowing sectors and countries to partly substitute foreign products, leads to significantly lower losses for both macro-regions. In the second model, the UK and EU27 would lose, at worst, the 0.05 and 0.5 percent of value-added, respectively
Key sectors in Input-Output Production Networks: an application to Brexit
This paper presents the first detailed and holistic description of the European production network (EPN) and provides different rankings of the most 'systemically important' industries involved in Brexit. Employing techniques of complex networks analysis and Input-Output traditional tools, the study identifies those industries that are key in the complex structure of the UK-EU trade relationships. The method developed would help policy-makers to better understand which tariff would have a more distortive impact, which export sector should be pushed, which imports should be safeguarded. Such information may have foremost importance in the negotiations between the UK and EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit would be not just a problem for the UK, as it is often portrayed, but any form of Brexit could propagate affecting the global production system. Further, by inspecting industries centrality within the EPN, we find that the UK could be less exposed to trade barriers than EU countries
Austerity, supervisione e ristrutturazioni bancarie: il ruolo controverso della BCE
In letteratura sussistono vari riscontri a sostegno della esistenza di una relazione tra politiche fiscali restrittive, calo della produzione e dei redditi e connesso deterioramento dei coefficienti patrimoniali delle banche europee. Le analisi suggeriscono che una restrizione dei bilanci pubblici può compromettere la stabilità dei bilanci bancari, inducendo piani di ricapitalizzazione e al limite liquidazioni e acquisizioni estere: vale a dire, fenomeni di “centralizzazione” dei capitali bancari in Europa. Se si accetta questa chiave di lettura, si può trarre anche una riflessione critica sul nuovo duplice ruolo della BCE, di gendarme dell’austerity e di supervisore bancario
Gli effetti della brexit e gli scenari alternativi | Conseguenze Brexit
Brexit effects might propagate through EU production network and lead to losses for many EU member states. On the other side of the channel, Britain has the chance to reverse losses by implementing import substitution policies
The Economy as a Whole: Three Essays on Economic Networks
Questa tesi comprende tre saggi sulle reti economiche globali. Nel primo capitolo, esaminiamo l'evoluzione storica della rete globale di proprietà e controllo. Utilizzando tecniche di network analysis applicate al database Eikon di Thomson Reuters, introduciamo una definizione di centralizzazione del capitale come controllo di rete e studiamo la sua evoluzione nel tempo, dal 2001 al 2016. I risultati suggeriscono che il controllo globale della rete è altamente centralizzato: la frazione dei top-holders, detentori cumulativamente dell’80% del valore economico globale delle società esaminate, non supera mai il 2%. Inoltre, esaminando le dinamiche temporali del fenomeno, osserviamo un aumento rilevante nella centralizzazione del capitale, soprattutto dopo la crisi. Il secondo capitolo integra la letteratura sull'impatto economico della Brexit e propone una ampia discussione sulla decisione del Regno Unito di lasciare l'UE e su come questo evento influenzerà le reti commerciali internazionali. Utilizzando il World Input-Output Database, sviluppiamo un modello multisettoriale inter-paese che ci consente di identificare tutti i canali commerciali attraverso i quali gli effetti economici della Brexit potrebbero propagarsi. L'inclusione nel nostro modello delle catene globali del valore e degli effetti indiretti della Brexit, conduce a stime che in parte divergono con i risultati della letteratura prevalente. I nostri risultati, infatti, suggeriscono che la Brexit potrebbe essere rischiosa e costosa non solo per il Regno Unito ma anche per molti paesi dell'UE. Abbinando le tecniche di network analysis alla strumentazione tipica degli inputoutput, il terzo capitolo presenta il primo studio topologico della rete di produzione europea e identifica i settori più importanti dal punto di vista sistemico coinvolti nella Brexit. La principale implicazione della nostra analisi, in linea con i risultati del secondo capitolo, è che la Brexit rischia di essere un problema non solo per il Regno Unito, come spesso viene esternato, poiché il suo impatto potrebbe propagarsi all'interno della rete produttiva europea e globale.This dissertation consists of three essays on global economic networks. In the first chapter, we investigate the historical evolution of the global ownership network. Using techniques of complex networks analysis applied to the Thomson Reuters Eikon database we introduce a definition of capital centralization as network control studying its global evolution from 2001 to 2016. We find that the global network control is highly centralized: the fraction of the top holders cumulatively holding the 80% of the global economic value of the companies examined does never exceed 2%. Furthermore, by inspecting the temporal dynamics of the phenomenon we observe a relevant increase in the centralization of capital, especially in the aftermath of the crisis.
The second chapter challenges and complements existing papers on the economic impact of Brexit providing a discussion of the UK's decision to leave the EU and how it will affect international trade networks and value-added. Using the World Input-Output Database, we develop a multi-sector inter-country model that allows us to identify all the channels through which the economic effects of Brexit would propagate. The inclusion of global value chains and indirect Brexit effects in our model leads to estimates that diverge with the results of the main literature. Indeed our findings, suggest that Brexit could be risky and costly not only for the UK but also for many EU countries.
The third chapter presents the first study of the European production network topology, and provides different rankings of the most 'systemically important' sectors involved in Brexit, according to different measures deriving from both input-output and network analysis literature. The main implication of our findings, in line with the second chapter results, is that Brexit would be not just a problem for the UK, as it is often portrayed, but any form of Brexit could propagate within the EPN and affect businesses and governments in the EU and globally
Le “riforme strutturali” del mercato del lavoro: promesse politiche ed evidenze empiriche
Una proposta di dialogo tra economisti e giuristi ispirata a una rassegna delle evidenze empiriche sugli effetti delle politiche di deregolamentazione del mercato del lavoro
Neoclassical influences in agent-based literature: A systematic review
Several studies highlight that the method and the object of analysis of Agent-Based models are in various respects in stark contrast to the prevailing neoclassical paradigm and therefore should be included in the traditions of alternative economic thought. In this paper, however, we show that distinctive features of the neoclassical theory can be found in most of the AB literature. Through a systematic review of most cited academic papers published in the period 1996–2019 and dedicated to Agent-Based models, we show that a “neoclassical influence” can be detected in 61% of papers, while only 39% do not have links with the mainstream neoclassical approach. We also note that after the “great recession” started in 2008 the neoclassical influences on AB literature decline to a significant extent