Road Project Investment Evaluation Using Net Present Value ( NPV ) at Risk Method

Strategic capital investment decisions are crucial and require careful analysis and consideration. This is due to the characteristics of infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to risks and uncertainties. Net Present Value (NPV)-at-Risk model developed by Ye and Tiong (2000) is a tool for investment evaluation under uncertainties. This paper presents an extension of the model to determine NPV at risk proposed by Ye and Tiong (2000). NPV at risk has been determined using three discount methods, cash flow after payment of tax, interest and principal debt, and the results were compared to choose the best one. NPV at risk was also determined using normal distribution and Monte Carlo simulation method with varying debt equity ratio. The evaluation of the road project shows that the NPV-at-risk method can provide a better decision for risk evaluation and investment in privately financed road projects. This paper presents NPV at risk and return at this NPV with a real case stud

Risk Analysis for a BOT Project

There are several risks in a BOT project. Major critical risks are total project cost and revenue/tollable traffic. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for a BOT project with a real case study varying equity from 10% to 90%.Traffic and cost are varied ± 20% and financial analysis is carried out with spread sheet, and test results are prepared in graphical forms and presented. Total Project Cost (TPC), Net Present Value (NPV) and Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) are plotted with various percentages of equity. Linear and non-linear graphs are found. FIRR decreases with increasing TPC/Equity, and probability of project risk increases with increasing percentage of equity up to 30 % and decreases beyond this value

Support Loan Concept for the Viability of a BOT Road Project

This paper presents the viability of a Build Operate Transfer (BOT) road project based on support loan concept. Interest of debt is one of the most important parameters for the viability of a project. In India, interest rate is in the range of 13 -18 % annually for infrastructure project. The road project with low traffic and high project cost may be infeasible. In order to make the project viable, support loan concept has been proposed in this paper. This paper presents the changes in values of various financial viable parameters with the use of support loan with a real case study. This paper presents the results of normal debt and support loan with different interest rates and different payback periods and develops a methodology for support loan for the viability of a project. It has been found that longer payback period is also more beneficial. Financial return is more with low rate of interest of debt. The real case study has been compared with support loan and subsidy provision and found out the best option after projecting both values at the end of payback period. It has been found that support loan provision is more beneficial for the government instead of subsidy option for the viability of a project. Support loan concept is recommended for the viability of the project

Optimization of Glare Block Spacing

Glare screen barrier is an important element in highway safety engineering. Height and spacing of glare screen barrier block are important parameters in highway design, since vehicles of different driver eye heights with different head light heights are plying on highways. Selection of spacing of glare block is a complex problem. A model has been proposed to determine optimum spacing of glare block for horizontal alignment. Glare block can be placed perpendicular to the road or inclined by a certain angle to obtain optimum cost. It is found that spacing is optimal when the sum of inclination angle(x) and degree of curvature (θ) is 70º; i.e., x+ θ = 70°

Three-Dimensional Analysis for Determination of Anti-Glare Screen Barrier Height

Few models are available to determine the height of anti-glare screen barrier based on two-dimensional analysis. Very limited research works have been carried out considering three-dimensional analysis. A model has been developed herein to determine the height of anti-glare screen barrier considering three-dimensional analysis. Height of anti-glare screen barrier has been determined considering plane, parabolic and spherical surfaces based on three-dimensional analysis. Height of anti-glare screen barrier has been found to be constant for plane surface, and it depends on the eye height of the driver and the height of vehicle head light only and varies for other surfaces. The model has also been modified for two-dimensional analysis and is reported herein. Height of anti-glare screen barrier obtained from two-dimensional analysis is also reported herein. There is no significant change in the height of anti-glare screen barrier in case of surface with large radius. Height of anti-glare screen barrier has been recommended as 1.85 m for Indian situation

Design of Concession Period Considering Risk Management for a Road Project

The design of concession period for build–operate–transfer (BOT) projects is crucial to financial viability and completion risk management. A systematic analysis shows that concession period design involves the design of concession period structure as well as the determination of the concession period length. The concession period may have a single-period structure or a two-period structure; its length may be fixed or variable. Different designs reflect different risk control strategies for completion time overruns. The single-period concession structure requires the project company to assume completion risk, while the two-period concession structure could, to some extent, reduce the completion risk exposure to the project company, depending on the various parameters. Through Monte Carlo simulation, this paper evaluates the mean net present value (NPV), variance and NPV-at-risk of different concession period structures, so that both the government and the concessionaires can understand their risk exposure and rewards. The paper then analyzes the influence of project characteristics on concession period design to evaluate the feasibility of the design. Expected concession period has been calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method, and expected concession periods have been found to be 28.25 years and 26.46 years based on level of service and 95 % risk consideration

mcSi and CdTe solar photovoltaic challenges: Pathways to progress

Multi-crystalline Si (mcSi) and CdTe solar photovoltaic technologies have gained significant improvement. Shockley–Queisser (S-Q) limit consideration further progress of open-circuit voltage (Voc), fill factor (FF) and the efficiency of CdTe cell are anticipated. Sub-bandgap parasitic absorption, grain boundaries and back contacts recombination lessening are vital to minimize these opto-electrical losses. mcSi and CdTe heterojunction (HJ) cells’ intrinsic thermal co-efficient to optical (bandgap) loss, interface and bulk defects and related thermal diffusion are possible opto-electrical limitations. Wafer based mcSi passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) over Al back surface field (Al-BSF) contact have incredibly progressed in current decades. Similar as mcSi cell, advancement of commercial CdTe cell is desired. Reviewing CdTe and mcSi/cSi (photo-physical similarity) based one hundred and fifty research papers it is comprehended that not only band aligned but also thin, transparent passivation window and electron reflector as barrier are central to minimize the shortcomings. CdTe absorber thickness-dependent Voc and fill factor trade-off while diverse window and barrier layer performance review are realized optical transparencies to electrical loss outcome. Stated opto-electrical development purpose thin absorber supportive band and lattice matching double HJ or graded CdSexTe1-x/CdTe HJ is possible realistic pathways. mcSi thin wafer is exposed to minimize bulk degradation that is caring for a stable and cost-effective PV. Finally, CdTe solar cells present limitations to laboratory design towards the best progression trails are focused. It is anticipated to limit the levelized cost of energy (LCOE)

Biodiversity of Astraeus asiaticus, a Wild Indigenous Edible Mushroom, in the Forests of Bankura District, West Bengal and Its Antioxidant Property

Three forests, Beliatore, Gangajal-ghati (G-ghati), and Joyur, were surveyed for mushroom collection and biodiversity. Mushrooms in the rhizospheric zone of some trees, such as Shorea robusta, Petrocarpus marsupium, Terminalia bellrica, and Madhuca indica, were identified at the molecular level as Asterius asiaticus. Thereafter, the ecological diversity of this mushroom was determined in the forests. The diversity indices of Shorea robusta in the Beliatore, Joypur, and Gangajal-ghati forests were 2.303, 2.178, and 2.36, respectively. Notably, the diversity index of Madhuca indica in the Beliatore and Joypur forests was nearly the same as that in the Gangajal-ghati forest, with a value of 2.29. The total phenolics contents of the hot water, acetone, and hexane extracts of this mushroom were 6.8 ± 0.15, 3.95 ± 0.15, and 2.16 ± 0.26 mg GAE/g, respectively, and the total flavonoid contents were 2.03 ± 0.12, 1.65 ± 0.2, and 1.01 ± 0.08 mg QE/g, respectively. The ascorbic acid contents in the hot water, acetone, and hexane extracts were low. The antioxidant activity of the extracts was determined using the DPPH (1,1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) assay. The IC50 values of the hot water, acetone, and hexane extracts were 42.54 ± 1.25c µg/ml, 54.06 ± 1.50b µg/mL, and 82.97 ± 1.58a µg/ml respectively while that of the synthetic antioxidant, BHA (butylated hydroxyanisole), was 32.41 ± 1.26d µg/mL. Overall, the hot water extract of this mushroom had the highest antioxidant content and displayed the best radical scavenging power

Automatic License Plate Recognition (ALPR) for Bangladeshi Vehicles

This paper presents Automatic License Plate extraction character segmentation and recognition method for license plate of Bangladeshi vehicles with chain code and neural network In Bangladesh license plate models are not followed strictly Characters on plate are in Bangla and English languages and also are in one or two lines Due to dissimilarity in the model of license plates vehicle license plate extraction character segmentation and recognition are key issue Different types of algorithm already applied and the performance is examined for English license plate We describe the license plate extraction character segmentation and recognition work with Bangla characters License plate extraction is performed using Sobel filter connected component analysis and morphological operations Character segmentation is performed in different levels by using scanning the binary image horizontally and vertically and connected component analysis Character recognition is carried out using chain code generation and stored knowledge of the networ