Global investment targets for malaria control and elimination between 2016 and 2030

Background Access to malaria control interventions falls short of universal health coverage. The Global Technical Strategy for malaria targets at least 90% reduction in case incidence and mortality rates, and elimination in 35 countries by 2030. The potential to reach these targets will be determined in part by investments in malaria. This study estimates the financing required for malaria control and elimination over the 2016–2030 period. Methods A mathematical transmission model was used to explore the impact of increasing intervention coverage on burden and costs. The cost analysis took a public provider perspective covering all 97 malaria endemic countries and territories in 2015. All control interventions currently recommended by the WHO were considered. Cost data were sourced from procurement databases, the peer-reviewed literature, national malaria strategic plans, the WHO-CHOICE project and key informant interviews. Results Annual investments of $6.4 billion (95$4.5–$9.0 billion)) by 2020,$7.7 billion (95% UI $5.4–$10.9 billion) by 2025 and $8.7 billion (95$6.0–$12.3 billion) by 2030 will be required to reach the targets set in the Global Technical Strategy. These are equivalent to annual investment per person at risk of malaria of US$3.90 by 2020, US$4.30 by 2025 and US$4.40 by 2030, compared with US$2.30 if interventions were sustained at current coverage levels. The 20 countries with the highest burden in 2015 will require 88% of the total investment. Conclusions Given the challenges in increasing domestic and international funding, the efficient use of currently available resources should be a priorit

Data from: Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesise that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimise transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year round transmission, transmission potential is optimised at intermediate relapse frequencies of 2-3 months: slower relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be 6-9 months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes

Genetics with Jean: the design, development and evaluation of an affective tutoring system

© 2016 Association for Educational Communications and Technology. This paper details the design, development and evaluation of an affective tutoring system (ATS)—an e-learning system that detects and responds to the emotional states of the learner. Research into the development of ATS is an active and relatively new field, with many studies demonstrating promising results. However, there is often no practical way to apply these findings in real-world settings. The ATS described in this paper utilizes a generic affective application model to infer and appropriately respond to the learner’s affective state. This approach brings several advantages, notably the potential direct support for re-use and retrospective addition of affect sensing functionality into existing e-learning software. Skin conductivity and heart rate variability measurements were used to infer affective activation and valence. The evaluation involved an experiment in which the effectiveness of the fully functional ATS was compared with that of a non-affective version, and was conducted with 40 adult participants. The evaluation of the effectiveness of this tutoring system showed that measurable improvements in perceived learning may be obtained with a modest level of software development