Identifying client characteristics to predict homecare use more accurately:a Delphi-study involving nurses and homecare purchasing specialists

BackgroundCase-mix based prospective payment of homecare is being implemented in several countries to work towards more efficient and client-centred homecare. However, existing models can only explain a limited part of variance in homecare use, due to their reliance on health- and function-related client data. It is unclear which predictors could improve predictive power of existing case-mix models. The aim of this study was therefore to identify relevant predictors of homecare use by utilizing the expertise of district nurses and health insurers.MethodsWe conducted a two-round Delphi-study according to the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. In the first round, participants assessed the relevance of eleven client characteristics that are commonly included in existing case-mix models for predicting homecare use, using a 9-Point Likert scale. Furthermore, participants were also allowed to suggest missing characteristics that they considered relevant. These items were grouped and a selection of the most relevant items was made. In the second round, after an expert panel meeting, participants re-assessed relevance of pre-existing characteristics that were assessed uncertain and of eleven suggested client characteristics. In both rounds, median and inter-quartile ranges were calculated to determine relevance.ResultsTwenty-two participants (16 district nurses and 6 insurers) suggested 53 unique client characteristics (grouped from 142 characteristics initially). In the second round, relevance of the client characteristics was assessed by 12 nurses and 5 health insurers. Of a total of 22 characteristics, 10 client characteristics were assessed as being relevant and 12 as uncertain. None was found irrelevant for predicting homecare use. Most of the client characteristics from the category ‘Daily functioning’ were assessed as uncertain. Client characteristics in other categories – i.e. ‘Physical health status’, ‘Mental health status and behaviour’, ‘Health literacy’, ‘Social environment and network’, and ‘Other’ – were more frequently considered relevant.ConclusionAccording to district nurses and health insurers, homecare use could be predicted better by including other more holistic predictors in case-mix classification, such as on mental functioning and social network. The challenge remains, however, to operationalize the new characteristics and keep stakeholders on board when developing and implementing case-mix classification for homecare prospective payment

Using machine learning to assess the predictive potential of standardized nursing data for home healthcare case-mix classification

Background The Netherlands is currently investigating the feasibility of moving from fee-for-service to prospective payments for home healthcare, which would require a suitable case-mix system. In 2017, health insurers mandated a preliminary case-mix system as a first step towards generating information on client differences in relation to care use. Home healthcare providers have also increasingly adopted standardized nursing terminology (SNT) as part of their electronic health records (EHRs), providing novel data for predictive modelling. Objective To explore the predictive potential of SNT data for improvement of the existing preliminary Dutch case-mix classification for home healthcare utilization. Methods We extracted client-level data from the EHRs of a large home healthcare provider, including data from the existing Dutch case-mix system, SNT data (specifically, NANDA-I) and the hours of home healthcare provided. We evaluated the predictive accuracy of the case-mix system and the SNT data separately, and combined, using the machine learning algorithm Random Forest. Results The case-mix system had a predictive performance of 22.4% cross-validatedR-squared and 6.2% cross-validated Cumming's Prediction Measure (CPM). Adding SNT data led to a substantial relative improvement in predicting home healthcare hours, yielding 32.1%R-squared and 15.4% CPM. Discussion The existing preliminary Dutch case-mix system distinguishes client needs to some degree, but not sufficiently. The results indicate that routinely collected SNT data contain sufficient additional predictive value to warrant further research for use in case-mix system design