Cluster-based early warning indicators for political change in the contemporary levant

We we cluster analysis to develop a model of political change in the Levant as reflected in the World Event Interaction Survey coded event data generated from Reuters between 1979 and 1998. A new statistical algorithm that uses the correlation between dyadic behaviors at two times identities clusters of political activity. The transition to a new cluster occurs when a point is closer in distance to subsequent points than to preceding ones. These clusters begin to "stretch" before breaking apart, which served as an early warning indicator. The clusters correspond well with phases of political behavior identified a priori. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the clustering and early waltzing measures are not random; they perform very differently in simulated data: sets with similar statistical characteristics. Our study demonstrates that the statistical analysis of newswire reports can yield systematic early warning indicators, and it provides empirical supper? for the theoretical concept of distinct behavioral phases in political activity

Endogenous networks and international cooperation

The rise of social network analyses in the social sciences has allowed empirical work to better account for interdependencies among actors and among their actions. However, this work has been, to a large extent, descriptive: it has treated these actions as exogenous and immutable. In many cases these networks describe actions like alliance formation or trade phenomena that are the outcome variables for programs of social scientific research. In this paper, I attempt to account for both interdependencies and the endogenous nature of networks by incorporating formal theory; helping answer the question of how these networks arise by looking at the incentives of actors to form links with each other. I discuss the appropriate solution concept for a network formation game, and present an algorithm for finding the equilibrium of these networks computationally as well as ways to compare the theoretical networks to observed ones in order to evaluate the fit of the theory. I apply these methods to the study of international cooperation a subject where both the interdependencies and purposive nature of actors must be accounted for. The theoretical network is able to reproduce a number of important observed characteristics. Still, there are more factors that must be accounted for if we want to understand how the network of international cooperation is formed

Contemporary Middle East

xvi, 421 p. : ill., maps ; 24 c

Contemporary Middle East

xvi, 421 p. : ill., maps ; 24 c

Monitoring Political Events in the Middle East using Automated Coding of News Reports

Streaming audio requires RealPlayer.The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.Philip A. Schrodt (Ph.D., Indiana University) is Professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas. He previously taught at Northwestern University, where he helped develop Northwestern’s programs on Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences and the multidisciplinary program in international studies, at the Naval Postgraduate School, the American University in Cairo, the University of California at Davis, Bir Zeit University in the West Bank, and spent a year at the University of Lancaster (England) on a NATO Postdoctoral fellowship. Schrodt’s major areas of research are formal models of political behavior, with an emphasis on international politics, and political methodology. His current research focuses on predicting political change using statistical and pattern recognition methods. He teaches a variety of courses in international relations, with an emphasis on international conflict, and U.S. defense policy. Schrodt has published more than 75 articles in political science, and his Kansas Event Data System computer program won the “Outstanding Computer Software Award” from the American Political Science Association in 1995. Deborah “Misty” Gerner (Ph.D., Northwestern University) is Professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas. She conducts research in the field of International Relations and Foreign Policy, with a special emphasis on the politics of the Middle East. She has authored numerous books, including Understanding the Contemporary Middle East and One Land, Two Peoples: The Conflict over Palestine. Her work has appeared in numerous prestigious journals, including the Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, and the American Journal of Political Science. Her work on conflict has earned her many accolades and awards, including the Tom and Ann Moore Peace and Justice Award from the Lawrence Coalition for Peace and Justice. She has also won numerous teaching awards. Prior to coming to the University of Kansas, Gerner taught at the University of Iowa and Hamilton College.Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent webpage, streaming audi