Study of Disease Progression and Relevant Risk Factors in Diabetic Foot Patients Using a Multistate Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model

The diabetic foot is a lifelong disease. The longer patients with diabetes and foot ulcers are observed, the higher the likelihood that they will develop comorbidities that adversely influence ulcer recurrence, amputation and survival (for example peripheral arterial disease, renal failure or ischaemic heart disease). The purpose of our study was to quantify person and limb-related disease progression and the time-dependent influence of any associated factors (present at baseline or appearing during observation) based on which effective prevention and/or treatment strategies could be developed. Using a nine-state continuous-time Markov chain model with time-dependent risk factors, all living patients were divided into eight groups based on their ulceration (previous or current) and previous amputation (none, minor or major) status. State nine is an absorbing state (death). If all transitions are fully observable, this model can be decomposed into eight submodels, which can be analyzed using the methods of survival analysis for competing risks. The dependencies of the risk factors (covariates) were included in the submodels using Cox-like regression. The transition intensities and relative risks for covariates were calculated from long-term data of patients with diabetic foot ulcers collected in a single specialized center in North-Rhine Westphalia (Germany). The detected estimates were in line with previously published, but scarce, data. Together with the interesting new results obtained, this indicates that the proposed model may be useful for studying disease progression in larger samples of patients with diabetic foot ulcers

Number of transitions.

<p>States 1, 3, 5, 7—diabetic foot ulcer. States 2, 4, 6—diabetic foot in remission. State 8 –bilateral major amputation. State 9 –death.</p

Relative risks (RR) of factors and their 95% confidence intervals.

<p>Relative risks (RR) of factors and their 95% confidence intervals.</p

Estimates of the baseline transition intensities, conditional probabilities of transition, and mean times to transition.

<p>Estimates of the baseline transition intensities, conditional probabilities of transition, and mean times to transition.</p

Plot of transition probabilities.

<p>Plot of transition probabilities.</p

The Prevalence and Characteristics of Phantom Limb Pain and Non-Painful Phantom Phenomena in a Nationwide Survey of 3,374 Unilateral Limb Amputees

The experience of phantom limb pain (PLP) is a common consequence of limb amputation, resulting in severe impairments of the affected person. Previous studies have shown that several factors such as age at or site of amputation are associated with the emergence and maintenance of PLP. In this cross-sectional study we assessed the presence of several phantom phenomena including PLP and other amputation-related information in a sample of 3,374 unilateral upper and lower limb amputees. Clinical and demographic variables (age at amputation, level of amputation) explained 10.6% of the variance in PLP and perceptual variables (intensity of phantom limb sensation [PLS], referred sensations, intensity of telescoping, residual limb pain [RLP] intensity) explained 16.9% of the variance. These variables were specific for PLP and not for RLP. These results suggest that distinct variables are associated with PLP (age at amputation, level of amputation, PLS intensity, referred sensations, intensity of telescoping, RLP intensity) and RLP (PLP intensity) and point at partly different mechanisms for the emergence and maintenance of PLP and RLP. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical/demographic variables as well as perceptual variables are 2 major components related to PLP and explain ∼11% and ∼17% of the variance. These results could potentially help clinicians to understand which factors may contribute to chronic phantom limb pain. Keywords: Amputation; phantom limb pain; phantom limb sensations; residual limb pain; telescope