Estimating the uncertainty of areal precipitation using data assimilation

We present a method to estimate spatially and temporally variable uncertainty of areal precipitation data. The aim of the method is to merge measurements from different sources, remote sensing and in situ, into a combined precipitation product and to provide an associated dynamic uncertainty estimate. This estimate should provide an accurate representation of uncertainty both in time and space, an adjustment to additional observations merged into the product through data assimilation, and flow dependency. Such a detailed uncertainty description is important for example to generate precipitation ensembles for probabilistic hydrological modelling or to specify accurate error covariances when using precipitation observations for data assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The presented method uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and an ensemble nowcasting model. The model provides information about the precipitation displacement over time and is continuously updated by assimilation of observations. In this way, the precipitation product and its uncertainty estimate provided by the nowcasting ensemble evolve consistently in time and become flow-dependent. The method is evaluated in a proof of concept study focusing on weather radar data of four precipitation events. The study demonstrates that the dynamic areal uncertainty estimate outperforms a constant benchmark uncertainty value in all cases for one of the evaluated scores, and in half the number of cases for the other score. Thus, the flow dependency introduced by the coupling of data assimilation and nowcasting enables a more accurate spatial and temporal distribution of uncertainty. The mixed results achieved in the second score point out the importance of a good probabilistic nowcasting scheme for the performance of the method

Hall drift in the crust of neutron stars - necessary for radio pulsar activity?

The radio pulsar models based on the existence of an inner accelerating gap located above the polar cap rely on the existence of a small scale, strong surface magnetic field $B_s$. This field exceeds the dipolar field $B_d$, responsible for the braking of the pulsar rotation, by at least one order of magnitude. Neither magnetospheric currents nor small scale field components generated during neutron star's birth can provide such field structures in old pulsars. While the former are too weak to create $B_s \gtrsim 5\times 10^{13}$G$\;\gg B_d$, the ohmic decay time of the latter is much shorter than $10^6$ years. We suggest that a large amount of magnetic energy is stored in a toroidal field component that is confined in deeper layers of the crust, where the ohmic decay time exceeds $10^7$ years. This toroidal field may be created by various processes acting early in a neutron star's life. The Hall drift is a non-linear mechanism that, due to the coupling between different components and scales, may be able to create the demanded strong, small scale, magnetic spots. Taking into account both realistic crustal microphysics and a minimal cooling scenario, we show that, in axial symmetry, these field structures are created on a Hall time scale of $10^3$-$10^4$ years. These magnetic spots can be long-lived, thereby fulfilling the pre-conditions for the appearance of the radio pulsar activity. Such magnetic structures created by the Hall drift are not static, and dynamical variations on the Hall time scale are expected in the polar cap region.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, contribution to the ERPM conferences, Zielona Gora, April 201

Comment on ``The linear instability of magnetic Taylor-Couette flow with Hall effect''

In the paper we comment on (R\"udiger & Shalybkov, Phys. Rev. E. 69, 016303 (2004) (RS)), the instability of the Taylor--Couette flow interacting with a homogeneous background field subject to Hall effect is studied. We correct a falsely generalizing interpretation of results presented there which could be taken to disprove the existence of the Hall--drift induced magnetic instability described in Rheinhardt and Geppert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 101103. It is shown that in contrast to what is suggested by RS, no additional shear flow is necessary to enable such an instability with a non--potential magnetic background field, whereas for a curl--free one it is. In the latter case, the instabilities found in RS in situations where neither a hydrodynamic nor a magneto--rotational instability exists are demonstrated to be most likely magnetic instead of magnetohydrodynamic. Further, some minor inaccuracies are clarified.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure; accepted by Physical Review

Politicization and political contests in and around contemporary multinational corporations: An introduction

© 2018, © The Author(s) 2018. This article looks at core arguments in international business, organization studies and surrounding academic fields that focus on the study of politicization and political contests in and around multinational corporations (MNCs). Two evident streams of debate are identified. Equally evident is that these streams hardly connect. One stream is mainly interested in studying politicization from the outside, whereas the other is mainly interested in politicization from within. As a way of connecting both streams, we introduce the circuits of power framework. Next, we introduce the contributions of our Special Issue, followed by concluding comments which distinguish five emergent themes. First, we show how the application of the circuits of power framework sheds new light on the study of political contests of MNCs. Second, we highlight that the role of nation states has not lost its significance as, for example, political corporate social responsibility (CSR) approaches would have us believe. Third, dominant ideologies play an important role in establishing and controlling circuits of power in and around MNCs. Fourth, it is vital to take labour issues into account in this field of study. Fifth, there is increasing evidence that asymmetric and hierarchical forms of organizing do not disappear in new MNC network forms

XMM-Newton Observations of Radio Pulsars B0834+06 and B0826-34 and Implications for Pulsar Inner Accelerator

We report the X-ray observations of two radio pulsars with drifting subpulses: B0834 + 06 and B0826 - 34 using \xmm\. PSR B0834 + 06 was detected with a total of 70 counts from the three EPIC instruments over 50 ks exposure time. Its spectrum was best described as that of a blackbody (BB) with temperature $T_s=(2.0^{+2.0}_{-0.9}) \times 10^6$ K and bolometric luminosity of $L_b=(8.6^{+14.2}_{-4.4}) \times 10^{28}$ erg s$^{-1}$. As it is typical in pulsars with BB thermal components in their X-ray spectra, the hot spot surface area is much smaller than that of the canonical polar cap, implying a non-dipolar surface magnetic field much stronger than the dipolar component derived from the pulsar spin-down (in this case about 50 times smaller and stronger, respectively). The second pulsar PSR B0826 - 34 was not detected over 50 ks exposure time, giving an upper limit for the bolometric luminosity $L_b \leq 1.4 \times 10^{29}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We use these data as well as the radio emission data concerned with drifting subpulses to test the Partially Screened Gap (PSG) model of the inner accelerator in pulsars.Comment: Accepted for publication by The Astrophysical Journa