A critical analysis on the use of scenario planning as a policy making tool for resilience

Futures thinking ‘allow us to anticipate dangerous trends, identify desirable futures and respond appropriately’ (Riedy, 2009:40). This argument seems to be even more prominent now, after the global financial crisis of 2008, Covid-19, together with the rapid technological change which generates increased uncertainty, causing a concern for the future. Based on a literature review, the paper discusses the potential contribution of scenario planning as a practical tool to understand uncertainty and test for resilience, in helping policymakers design better policies. This research highlights the importance of scenario design, development and implementation as a tool for resilience testing. Recent examples on scenario application are discussed, capturing the coronavirus pandemic, climate change and sustainability, in addition to financial crises and shocks, catastrophes and cyber/technological risks. The paper adopts an interdisciplinary approach commenting on the value and use of scenario planning from different angles in relation to resilience, presenting an overview of scenario applications by type of resilience. The focus is placed on UK policy making approaches for the period post the 2008 global financial crisis until the coronavirus pandemic. It adopts the position that the contribution of scenario planning as a practical tool in policymaking in relation to resilience testing is a double-edged sword. This is because while there is a great value of using scenario planning to inform policymaking in the face of growing uncertainty and complexity, adopting scenario planning does not result in automatic gains. Therefore, one should be aware of the associated challenges such as different biases and issues of inclusivity and exclusivity within the process

Visible choice sets and scope sensitivity: An experimental and field test of study design effects upon nested contingent values

In this paper we argue that the burgeoning empirical debate over scope sensitivity within contingent valuation studies is fundamentally incomplete in that the effect of study design upon observed scope has largely been ignored. In particular we highlight the frequently overlooked fact that in many common study designs the choice set initially offered (or 'visible') to respondents is changed in a stepwise disclosure manner as they progress through a valuation exercise. Conversely, other designs give advance disclosure regarding the full extent of the final visible choice set prior to any choices or values being elicited. Although this issue has been raised within this journal by several commentators (e.g. Kahneman and Knetsch, 1992; Smith, 1992) it has not been formally tested. We present laboratory and field tests of the impact upon contingent values of varying the visible choice set through stepwise and advanced disclosure modes using exclusive choices throughout (i.e., providing a situation in which procedural variance is not expected). These dimensions of design are interacted with changes in the order in which nested goods are presented (bottom-up versus top-down). We find that when a stepwise disclosure procedure is adopted the observed scope sensitivity is substantially and significantly affected by the order in which goods are presented but such procedural invariance is not observed within advanced disclosure designs. Conjectures regarding the origin and implication of such findings are presented

Economic valuation of benefits from the proposed REACH restriction of intentionally added microplastics.

This study elicited the willingness to pay (WTP) for measures to control the release of intentionally added microplastics. Although microplastics accumulate in the marine environment and are practically unrecoverable, there is considerable scientific uncertainty about their environmental and health effects. This study used both a Choice Experiment (CE) and Contingent Valuation (CV) to evaluate where it was more beneficial to target restrictions at source or emissions. The CE investigated source-control in evaluating how respondents accept a trade-off between the price and performance of cosmetic products when reformulated to reduce the use of microplastics. Two CV tasks then estimated the benefits of research to resolve the uncertainty, and the benefits of upgrading Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTP) to retain more microplastics. The difference in the annual CV WTP; £53.24 for research and £73.71 respectively, suggests that respondents are willing to pay a substantial premium for the precautionary abatement of microplastics

Diagnosis and surgical approach of popliteal artery entrapment syndrome: a retrospective study

Stavros Gourgiotis1, John Aggelakas1, Nikolaos Salemis1, Charalabos Elias2, Charalabos Georgiou11Second Surgical Department, 401 General Army Hospital of Athens, Greece; 2Second Surgical Department, 417 NIMTS Veterans General Hospital of Athens, GreeceBackground: Popliteal artery entrapment syndrome (PAES) is a rare but potentially limb threatening peripheral vascular disease occurring predominantly in young adults. This study is a retrospective review of 49 limbs in 38 patients with PAES treated surgically over an 8-year period.Patients and methods: From 1995 to 2002, 38 patients with a mean age of 21 years (range, 18–29 years) underwent surgery for PAES at a single institution. The patients’ demographic data and clinical features are recorded. The preoperative diagnosis of PAES was made based on various combinations of investigations including positional stress test, duplex ultrasonography, computed tomography, computed tomographic angiography, and angiography. Results: Nine, 33, and 7 patients had Delaney’s type I, II, and III PAES respectively. The surgical procedures consisted of simple release of the popliteal artery in 33 limbs (67.3%), autogenous saphenous vein (ASV) patch angioplasty with or without thromboendarterectomy (TEA) in 5 limbs (10.2%) and ASV graft interposition or bypass in 11 limbs (22.5%). At a median follow up of 34 months (range, 8–42 months), there were no postoperative complications and all the patients were cured of their symptoms.Conclusions: PAES is an unusual but important cause of peripheral vascular insufficiency especially in young patients. Early diagnosis through a combined approach is necessary for exact diagnosis. Popliteal artery release alone or with vein bypass is the treatment of choice when intervention is indicated for good operative outcome and to prevent limb loss.Keywords: popliteal artery, entrapment syndrome, diagnosis, surgery, treatmen

Economic valuation of benefits from the proposed REACH restriction of intentionally added microplastics.

This study elicited the willingness to pay (WTP) for measures to control the release of intentionally added microplastics. Although microplastics accumulate in the marine environment and are practically unrecoverable, there is considerable scientific uncertainty about their environmental and health effects. This study used both a Choice Experiment (CE) and Contingent Valuation (CV) to evaluate where it was more beneficial to target restrictions at source or emissions. The CE investigated source-control in evaluating how respondents accept a trade-off between the price and performance of cosmetic products when reformulated to reduce the use of microplastics. Two CV tasks then estimated the benefits of research to resolve the uncertainty, and the benefits of upgrading Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTP) to retain more microplastics. The difference in the annual CV WTP; £53.24 for research and £73.71 respectively, suggests that respondents are willing to pay a substantial premium for the precautionary abatement of microplastics

Ooh la la: Testing the one-and-one-half bound dichotomous choice elicitation method for robustness to anomales

Although attractive in terms of its incentive compatibility, the standard single bound (SB) dichotomous choice technique for eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) responses in contingent valuation surveys has a major drawback in terms of its low statistical efficiency. While alternatives such as the double bound (DB) approach (which supplements an initial SB style question concerning a specified bid amount with a subsequent follow-up question concerning a different bid amount) offer improved statistical efficiency, they do so at the cost of compromised incentive compatibility and have also been shown to be vulnerable to a number of response anomalies. An innovative alternative, the one-and-one-half-bound (OOHB) dichotomous choice approach, has recently been proposed by Cooper, Hanemann and Signorello (2002). The OOHB differs from the DB in a number of important respects; the most important being that while each respondent is again exposed to two bid amounts, these are presented prior to any response as upper and lower limits on the cost of schemes. This preserves the incentive compatibility of responses concerning those two limits while generating most of the efficiency gains afforded by the DB method. However, Cooper, Hanemann and Signorello fail to test the method for robustness against response anomalies. Such a test is provided by the present paper. A number of theoretical consistency hypotheses are formulated by contrasting standard expectations with those derived from non-standard reference dependent utility theory. These are tested through the first application of the OOH method within its intended public goods context in a study concerning WTP for remediating impacts upon water quality associated with climate change. Data is collected through a face-to-face survey of over 1250 UK households. Results reject the theoretical consistency of elicited WTP responses showing that the OOHB is highly vulnerable to a number of anomalies. In particular acceptance rates for a given bid amount varied according to which other amount it was paired with and the order in which responses were elicited. We speculate upon the implications of these findings

Investigating the characteristics of expressed preferences for reducing the impacts of air pollution: A contingent valuation experiment

This paper presents the findings of research intended to investigate the nature of expressed preferences for reducing air pollution impacts. Specifically a contingent valuation (CV) experiment is designed to elicit individuals' values for reducing these impacts and examine how these may change when multiple schemes for reducing differing impacts are valued. Results indicate substantial substitution effects between a scheme delivering improvements to human health and one to reduce impacts upon plant life such that the value of a combined programme, delivering both types of benefit, is substantially less than the sum of values for the two separate schemes implemented in isolation of each other. A practical consequence of these findings is that estimates of the value of combined programmes may not readily be obtained by summing the values of their constituent parts

Scope sensitivity tests for preference robustness: An empirical examination of economic expectations regarding the economic valuation of politices for reducing acidity in remote mountain lakes

The paper introduces the reader to the contingent valuation method for monetary valuation of individuals preferences regarding changes to environmental goods. Approaches to the validity testing of results from such studies are discussed. These focus upon whether findings conform to prior expectations, in particular regarding whether valuations are sensitive to the size (or scope) of change being considered and whether they are invariant to changes in study design which are irrelevant from the perspective of economic theory. We apply such tests to a large sample study of two possible changes to the acidity levels of remote mountain lakes. Results suggest that robust values can be observed for a policy which would prevent further acidification of such lakes, but that values associated with measures to reduce acidity below present levels fail validity tests. Interestingly, values associated with preventing further acidification of lakes appear to be significantly lower for individuals who live further away from such lakes and there may even be a national component to this distance decay suggesting that those who live in the same country as the lakes in question hold higher values for their improvement

Coastal bathing water health risks : assessing the public and scientific acceptability of health risk standards

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