Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks-heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below

The XMM-Newton Iron Line Profile of NGC 3783

We report on observations of the iron K line in the nearby Seyfert 1 galaxy, NGC 3783, obtained in a long, 2 orbit (240 ks) XMM-Newton observation. The line profile obtained exhibits two strong narrow peaks at 6.4 keV and at 7.0 keV, with measured line equivalent widths of 120 and 35 eV respectively. The 6.4 keV emission is the K-alpha line from near neutral Fe, whilst the 7.0 keV feature probably originates from a blend of the neutral Fe K-beta line and the H-like line of Fe at 6.97 keV. The relatively narrow velocity width of the K-alpha line (<5000 km/s), its lack of response to the continuum emission on short timescales and the detection of a neutral Compton reflection component are all consistent with a distant origin in Compton-thick matter such as the putative molecular torus. A strong absorption line from highly ionized iron (at 6.67 keV) is detected in the time-averaged iron line profile, whilst the depth of the feature appears to vary with time, being strongest when the continuum flux is higher. The iron absorption line probably arises from the highest ionization component of the known warm absorber in NGC 3783, with an ionization of logxi=3 and column density of 5x10^{22}cm{-2} and may originate from within 0.1pc of the nucleus. A weak red-wing to the iron K line profile is also detected below 6.4 keV. However when the effect of the highly ionized warm absorber on the underlying continuum is taken into account, the requirement for a relativistic iron line component from the inner disk is reduced.Comment: 34 pages, including 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Efficient method for estimating the number of communities in a network

While there exist a wide range of effective methods for community detection in networks, most of them require one to know in advance how many communities one is looking for. Here we present a method for estimating the number of communities in a network using a combination of Bayesian inference with a novel prior and an efficient Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We test the method extensively on both real and computer-generated networks, showing that it performs accurately and consistently, even in cases where groups are widely varying in size or structure.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Microflow valve control system design

A design synthesis for a microflow control system is presented based on the interrogation of an analytical model, testing, and observation. The key issues relating to controlling a microflow using a variable geometry flow channel are explored through the implementation and testing of open and closed-loop control systems. The reliance of closed-loop systems on accurate flow measurement and the need for an open-loop strategy are covered. A valve and control system capable of accurately controlling flowrates between 0.09 and 400 ml/h and with a range of 900:1 is demonstrated

A study of the UV and VUV degradation of FEP

UV and VUV degradation of fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) copolymer was studied using electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The ESR study revealed the formation of a terminal polymer radical. The stability of this radical was investigated under different environments. An XPS study of FEP film exposed to VUV and atomic oxygen showed that oxidation takes place on the polymer surface. The study revealed also that the percentage of CF2 in the polymer surface decreased with exposure time and the percentage of CF, CF3, and carbon attached to oxygen increased. SEM micrographs of FEP film exposed to VUV and atomic oxygen identified a rough surface with undulations similar to sand dunes

TDRSS momentum unload planning

A knowledge-based system is described which monitors TDRSS telemetry for problems in the momentum unload procedure. The system displays TDRSS telemetry and commands in real time via X-windows. The system constructs a momentum unload plan which agrees with the preferences of the attitude control specialists and the momentum growth characteristics of the individual spacecraft. During the execution of the plan, the system monitors the progress of the procedure and watches for unexpected problems

AFM pulling and the folding of donor-acceptor oligorotaxanes: phenomenology and interpretation

The thermodynamic driving force in the self-assembly of the secondary structure of a class of donor-acceptor oligorotaxanes is elucidated by means of molecular dynamics simulations of equilibrium isometric single-molecule force spectroscopy AFM experiments. The oligorotaxanes consist of cyclobis(paraquat-\emph{p}-phenylene) rings threaded onto an oligomer of 1,5-dioxynaphthalenes linked by polyethers. The simulations are performed in a high dielectric medium using MM3 as the force field. The resulting force vs. extension isotherms show a mechanically unstable region in which the molecule unfolds and, for selected extensions, blinks in the force measurements between a high-force and a low-force regime. From the force vs. extension data the molecular potential of mean force is reconstructed using the weighted histogram analysis method and decomposed into energetic and entropic contributions. The simulations indicate that the folding of the oligorotaxanes is energetically favored but entropically penalized, with the energetic contributions overcoming the entropy penalty and effectively driving the self-assembly. In addition, an analogy between the single-molecule folding/unfolding events driven by the AFM tip and the thermodynamic theory of first-order phase transitions is discussed and general conditions, on the molecule and the cantilever, for the emergence of mechanical instabilities and blinks in the force measurements in equilibrium isometric pulling experiments are presented. In particular, it is shown that the mechanical stability properties observed during the extension are intimately related to the fluctuations in the force measurements.Comment: 42 pages, 17 figures, accepted to the Journal of Chemical Physic

Fe XXV and Fe XXVI Diagnostics of the Black Hole and Accretion Disk in Active Galaxies: Chandra Time-Resolved Spectroscopy of NGC 7314

We report the detection of Fe XXV and Fe XXVI $K\alpha$ emission lines from a Chandra HETGS observation of the Seyfert~1 galaxy NGC 7314, made simultaneously with RXTE. The lines are redshifted (cz ~ 1500 km/s) relative to the systemic velocity and unresolved. We argue that the lines originate in a near face-on (<7 degrees) disk having a radial line emissivity flatter than r^-2. Line emission from ionization states of Fe in the range ~Fe I up to Fe XXVI is observed. The ionization balance of Fe responds to continuum variations on timescales less than 12.5 ks, supporting an origin of the lines close to the X-ray source. We present additional, detailed diagnostics from this rich data set. These results identify NGC 7314 as a key source to study in the future if we are to pursue reverberation mapping of space-time near black-hole event horizons. This is because it is first necessary to understand the ionization structure of accretion disks and the relation between the X-ray continuum and Fe K line emission. However, we also describe how our results are suggestive of a means of measuring black-hole spin without a knowledge of the relation between the continuum and line emission. Finally, these data emphasize that one {\it can} study strong gravity with narrow (as opposed to very broad) disk lines. In fact narrow lines offer higher precision, given sufficient energy resolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 30 pages, six figures, five of them color. Abstract is abridge