Visualizing Trials with Large DNA Databases

poster abstractAbstract: This essay seeks to help the reader understand the use of probability theory in assessing DNA evidence drawn from large databases. I first guide the reader through visualizing a slightly simpler paradox of probability theory, the rare disease test. I then offer a visual understanding of the Puckett setting: DNA evidence from a large database identifies an individual but a deceased prime suspect exists whose DNA is not available. Effectively, the court needs to ascertain the probability that the third of three possible worlds has materialized. In the first possible world, the prime suspect, Baker, is the perpetrator and the court observes a false positive. The second possible world has an unknown perpetrator and again the court observes a false positive. The third world has Puckett as the perpetrator and the court observes a true positive. It turns out that the resulting posterior probabilities are strongly but not overwhelmingly in favor of the third possibility, true guilt

The Conservative Paradox and the Formation of 5–4 Coalitions

This analysis springs from the need to resolve a paradox. The paradox is that 5–4 decisions from the post-World War II United States Supreme Court lean conservative—they are about 58% conservative. The explanation is that the median justice has tended to be ideologically closer to the next conservative justice than the next liberal justice. A coalition with the conservative wing has tended to be easier to form than with the liberal wing. The contribution is the comparison of three models of how 5–4 vote splits may occur

Frauds, Markets, and Fraud-on-the-Market: The Tortured Transition of Justifiable Reliance from Deceit to Securities Fraud

This article examines the reliance element of the securities fraud action. An analysis comparing the economic function of common law deceit to that of securities fraud is used to appraise the current law and to propose refinements. This article argues that neither participants in securities markets nor the society are indifferent to the risk of misrepresentations about securities and that this risk is larger than the risk created by misrepresentations about nonfinancial goods (real goods). Therefore, the fear of misrepresentations about securities is more undesirable than the fear of misrepresentations about real goods. Consequently, the securities fraud action should create stronger deterrence than the deceit action. The fraud- on-the-market presumption of reliance intensifies the deterrence of the securities-fraud action by making class actions more likely to succeed and by allowing larger classes, hence, larger damage awards than under the actual reliance required for deceit liability. Although the economic analysis supports the expansive securities fraud action that the fraud-on-the-market presumption of reliance creates, the presumption also has the important drawback that it may be rebutted if the trader does not "trust the integrity of the market." This rebuttal exposes informed traders to fraud and, therefore, undermines market efficiency. It is easy to overcome this drawback (while retaining the beneficial effects of the rebuttal) by replacing it with the traditional avoidable consequences defense to the causation that reliance shows

Judicial Reaction to Change: The California Supreme Court around the 1986 Elections

After an unsuccessful attempt in 1982, the California electorate removed three of the Justices of the Supreme Court of California in the 1986 elections because they were soft on crime. This article studies the voting patterns of the three justices who were on the California Supreme Court before and after the elections, revealing three distinct judicial and political strategies.foreve

The Distribution of Justices\u27 Votes and Countering National Disunity

The estimation of the distribution that matches the voting of the justices of the Supreme Court shows that voting is correlated and reveals three phenomena: an outlier distribution produced by one composition of the Court, the surprising frequency of unanimous decisions, and the intensity with which the Court avoids 4–4 decisions. The intensity with which the Court avoids 4–4 splits and the strength of the drive to produce unanimous decisions seem sensitive to national disunity. At times of greater disunity, 1965 to 1975 and 2001 to 2020, the Court avoids 4–4 splits more intensely and has a greater fraction of its decisions be unanimous

Visualizing DNA Proof

DNA proof inherently involves the use of probability theory, which is often counterintuitive. Visual depictions of probability theory, however, can clarify the analysis and make it tractable. A DNA hit from a large database is a notoriously difficult probabi­li­ty theory issue, yet the visuals should enable courts and juries to handle it. The Puckett facts are an example of a general approach: A search in a large DNA database produces a hit for a cold crime from 1972 San Francisco. Probability theory allows us to process the probabilities that someone else in the database, someone not in the database, or the initial suspect, Baker, may be the perpetrator and obtain the probability of Puckett’s guilt. Given the clarity of this analysis, decisions that do not follow it deserve reversal as clearly erroneous

Bankruptcy Veil-Piercing

This Article reveals that bankruptcy piercing focuses exclusively on contract. Part I updates the comparison of contract-to-tort ratios in veil piercing and beyond. Part II discusses alternative explanations for the surprising frequency of contract piercing, including the substitution of tort piercing with more lenient theories of liability. Part III explains the construction of the bankruptcy sample. Part IV discusses its observations. After the conclusion of the Article, the Appendix lists the bankruptcy opinions analyzed herein