26-30 August 2013. Two cases of heavy rain and intense thunderstorms in theWestern Mediterranean

Póster presentado en: Using ECMWF Forecasts (UEF 2015) celebrado del 8 al 10 de junio de 2015 en Reading (Inglaterra).This presentation illustrates the real time evolution of two consecutive weather systems that affected Iberia and the Balearic Islands during the last week on August 2013. The first one occurred mainly during the night and almost over the sea or coastal areas. The second one consisted on a cut-off that crossed mainland Spain from Galicia to the Southeast going to the Mediterranean south of the islands. Everything occurred at the end of August. The dynamic forcing was not very strong, what made more uncomprehensible the presence of rainfall quantities greater than 40 mm in one hour or 100 mm in 24 hours in the morning or the night. At the end, that was a key point for suspecting about some loss of spread at short ranges

High impact weather and cyclones simultaneity in Catalonia

TheWesternMediterranean in general and Catalonia in particular are usually affected by high impact weather (HIW) events, mainly heavy rain (HR) and strong wind (SW). The improvement in the understanding and the accurate forecast of such events are major concerns for the meteorologists of the region. In the present study, HR and SW events in Catalonia are cross-referenced with an objective cyclone database for a 9-year period (from June 1995 to May 2004). Results show that in most of the HR events a cyclone is located close to Catalonia, in such a way that the feeding of a moist flow to the affected region was favoured. These cyclones can be either shallow and weak or deep and intense. A simultaneous cyclone also appears to be connected with many SW events. However, other SW events seem to be related to meso-scale circulations and, as a result, not always well captured in the cyclone database. Finally, coincident HR and SW events are analysed. In almost all of such events a deep cyclone is located in the vicinity of Catalonia

Diabatic processes contribution to the november 2001 storm

Ponencia presentada en la 4th EGS Plinius Conference celebrada en Mallorca en octubre de 2002Between the 9th-15th of November 2001 a very deep cyclogenesis event occurred in the Western Mediterranean basin. The quantious and dramatic damages both in material and human loses and the recorded values of fall in pressure, heavy rain and wind were so important that it can be qualified as the most important and violent meteorological event for the last decades. The complexity of the meteorological situation was big enough to have all of the ingredients for a very well developed baroclinic cyclone in the first stage and a hurricane-like storm at the second part of the event. In this paper the role of the latent heat release from precipitation and both the sensible and latent heat fluxes in the generation and development of the cyclone is investigated

El modelo cognitivo aplicado a delincuentes institucionalizados: el pensamiento prosocial

[email protected] modelo cognitivo adquiere con los años mayor protagonismo en el campo de los delincuentes institucionalizados, dando importantes muestras de eficacia, aunque debido a la complejidad del escenario de intervencion —el medio penitenciario—, se empieza a considerar la conveniencía de impulsar programas multirnodales. En este trabajo se presenta la experiencia llevada a cabo en la que fue Prisión Modelo de Valencia y que consistió, básicamente, en la aplicación de un paquete de técnicas de carácter cognitivo, técnicas que constituyen el programa denominado El Pensamiento Prosocial. Los resultados, altamente esperanzadores, convierten el mencionado programa en una eficaz herramienta de trabajo para los profesionales de este campo

NoSWEx. Experimento de otoño de predicción inmediata de fenómenos de tiempo severo: convección y lluvias fuertes

Ponencia presentada en: XXXII Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Alcobendas (Madrid), del 28 al 30 de mayo de 2012.El experimento NoSWEx, de predicción inmediata de fenómenos de tiempo severo especialmente lluvias fuertes, tuvo lugar en AEMET el pasado otoño, entre el 17 de octubre y el 11 de noviembre de 2011

Three-dimensional structure of western Mediterranean cyclones

In the present paper, a method to objectively detect and track mean sea-level (MSL) cyclones for the western Mediterranean is described. Furthermore, the three-dimensional characterization of each MSL cyclone is performed by means of several parameters. This includes the vorticity, thermal and humidity fields at different pressure levels where the cyclone is detected, as well as the wind speed profile and the moist stability over the MSL cyclone. Both methodologies are illustrated and validated by a real case: an intense event of the well-known Genoa cyclone. Detection, tracking and three-dimensional characterization are applied to an 8-year (from June 1995 to May 2003) database of numerical analyses. The result is a MSL cyclone database for the western Mediterranean with a description of their three-dimensional structure. For a better analysis, cyclones are grouped in three different ways: by thickness, season and region of detection. Results show that western Mediterranean cyclones are located in specific geographical regions and that their location depends on the season. Several cyclones are weak and shallow, mainly because of thermal and/or orographic causes. On the contrary, other cyclones are large and intense and extend throughout the whole troposphere. Differences in cyclone structure depending on the location and season are also discusse

Heavy rain and strong wind events and cyclones in the Balearics

The relationship between heavy rain (HR) and/or strong wind (SW) events and cyclones is investigated for the Balearic Islands. First, a list of HR and SW events is cross-referenced with an objective cyclone database for a 9-year period (from June 1995 to May 2004). The presence of a cyclone centre close to the Balearics is looked for each event. For HR events in most of the cases a cyclone centre is located in the vicinity. Furthermore, cyclones are located in such a way that allow the supply of warm and wet air to the affected area. But for SW events, although in the majority of cases a cyclone centre is detected, cyclones are located farther than for HR events and their geographical location is more widespread. Afterwards, the three-dimensional structure of cyclones related to HR and/or SW events is studied in detail

Intense storms in the Mediterranean: a first description from the ERA-40 perspective

The study of the Mediterranean cyclones from a climatological point of view has been one of the objectives of the first phase of WMO WWRP MEDEX (MEDiterranean EXperiment) project. It has been revealing itself like a good procedure for extracting conclusions about their characteristics and behaviour. The implementation on ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis of the method for detecting and tracking the cyclones developed at the Centro Meteorológico Territorial (CMT) in Illes Balears of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INM, Spain) has allowed the selection of the most intense storms occurred for the last 45 years. This selection has been based on the value of the cyclones' circulation. The areas of maximum intensification for those cyclones have been obtained and the existence of preferential zones of intensification has been verified. Finally a first sight of those cases has allowed to initiate the check up of the ability of the ERA-40 re-analyses for reproducing these intense Mediterranean storms

A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index

Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed.This work has been partially supported by the MEDICANES/CGL200801271 project

Atmospheric patterns for heavy precipitation in Bulgaria

This paper presents a classification of the atmospheric circulations producing extreme precipitation events in Bulgaria. Heavy precipitation data set from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria, atmospheric fields of geopotential height at 1000 hPa, at 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa of the ECMWF operational analysis are used to determine the atmospheric patterns (AP). Other atmospheric fields such as geopotential height at 850 hPa, at 700 hPa and relative humidity at 700 hPa are also depicted to analyze the AP. Two statistical methods are used to obtain the AP. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the number of variables. Then, Cluster Analysis (CA) was performed and four main AP were obtained. For two AP, heavy precipitation is associated with a low-level cyclone. They can occur in all seasons. For the cold season (October to March), the trajectories of the cyclones are represented. Another pattern, which occurs mainly in the warm season (April to September), depicts an upperlevel cyclonic disturbance associated with heavy precipitation. The last AP represents a weak cyclonic circulation. Finally, a more detailed nine-cluster classification has been also obtained by adding some regional and seasonal features of the heavy precipitation events.This research was supported by the Ministry of Environment of the Government of the Kingdom of Spain