Para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin kredi büyümesi üzerine etkileri: banka büyüklüğü ve kredi türünün önemi

Bu çalışmada, Türk bankacılık sektörü bilanço verisi kullanılarak, 2002Ç4-2015Ç1 döneminde uygulanan para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati politikaların kredi büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri panel veri tahmin yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Söz konusu etkiler, önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, banka büyüklüğü ve kredi türü ayrımında ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmanın bu ayrım gözetilerek yapılmasının nedeni, uygulanan para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin, büyük ve küçük bankaların aktif ve pasif kompozisyonunda görülen farklılıklar nedeniyle, kredi türüne de bağlı olarak, kredi büyüme oranları üzerinde asimetrik bir etki yaratma olasılığıdır. Tahmin sonuçları, politika faizindeki 1 yüzde puan artışla ifade edilebilecek daha sıkı bir para politikası duruşunun, büyük bankaların toplam kredi büyümesini 0,46-0,49 yüzde puan, bireysel kredi büyümesini ise 0,88-0,94 yüzde puan azalttığını göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, bulgular, daha sıkı bir makro ihtiyati politika duruşunun, küçük bankaların toplam, bireysel ve ticari kredi büyüme oranlarını yavaşlattığına, büyük bankaların ise sadece bireysel kredi büyüme oranlarında düşüşe neden olduğuna işaret etmektedir.This study analyzes the effects of monetary policy tools and macro prudential measures on credit growth during 2002Q4-2015Q period by using Turkish banking sector balance sheet data and panel data estimation methods. Unlike earlier studies, these effects are examined with an asset size and credit type breakdown. This breakdown is necessary as the differences observed between big and small banks with respect to their asset and liability composition can cause monetary and macro prudential policies to have asymmetric effects on credit growth rates, depending on the credit type. The estimation results show that a tighter monetary policy manifested by 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces total credit growth rate of big banks by 0.46-0.49 percentage points while the consumer credit growth of big banks declines by 0.88-0.94 percentage points. On the other hand, a tighter macro prudential policy slows down credit growth of small banks for all credit types, whereas for big banks, the deceleration is observed only in consumer credits

An investigation of the impacts of asset ratio policy on the banking system during the Covid-19 crisis in Turkey

Purpose: This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main objective of the new rule was to boost credit growth in the economy and provide lending for credit-constrained households and firms that are in need. A secondary aim was to shift the denomination structure of the deposits toward domestic currency. Hence, the paper focus particularly on how the policy affected the growth rate of loans and the share of domestic deposits relative to foreign ones among the commercial banks. The policy was also heavily criticized due to the possibility that it will subjugate the banking system to excessive risk. The paper explore this possible impact by measuring how much the policy affected the default risk allowances in the banking system. Design/methodology/approach: The new policy required banks with deposits above a threshold level, i.e. large banks, to maintain a certain asset ratio. Banks with deposits below the threshold, i.e. small banks, were held exempt from it. The paper implement a difference-in difference methodology to assess the quantitative impacts of the asset ratio policy by taking large banks as the treatment group, and small banks as the control group. Findings: Difference-in-difference estimation results suggest that the asset ratio policy resulted in a 9.6% rise in loans and an 8.4% rise in government securities. Deposits also increased, with no significant change in their composition. The policy initially generated a 7% increase in the credit risk allowances of banks in the treatment group, which vanished in the following periods. Based on all these, the paper argue that the policy was successful in providing liquidity to the economy without jeopardizing the financial stability. Research limitations/implications: The findings of this study show that asset ratio policy is effective in increasing credit growth in countries with limited policy space such as Turkey. While saying this, the importance of the robust and prudent structure of the banking system in the economy should be underlined. Otherwise, the policy may have an unintended consequence of raising systemic risk. The policy suggestions also apply to advanced countries where the monetary policy has reached a natural limit due to the zero lower bound (ZLB). The ZLB problem encouraged these countries to use quantitative easing schemes in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, just like the global financial crisis. However, it may take a long time to undo the effects of this policy on the balance sheets of central banks. In such cases, asset ratio policy can also be considered as an alternative tool for advanced economies notwithstanding the fact that the banking system should be prudent, well-capitalized and the country should have enough fiscal space. The main objective of the asset ratio policy was to help SMEs that were in urgent need of liquidity at the beginning of the crisis. The bank balance sheet data used in this paper does not contain information about the borrowers of the loans extended during the implementation of the policy. Analysis of this dimension using matched bank-firm level data will better demonstrate the success of the policy in achieving this goal. The paper address this as the main limitation of the paper and leave that analysis for future research. Originality/value: This paper provides an important contribution to the literature by assessing a new unique policy whose objective is to stimulate loans and mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economy. The policy in question is predicted to have effects on the asset and liability structure and risk exposure of the banking system in Turkey. The quantitative analysis in this study estimates these impacts and discusses the effectiveness of the new policy in providing a relief for firms and households in need. Whether or not the policy caused a disruption in the sound structure of the banking system in Turkey is another question addressed in the paper.WOS:0007616925000012-s2.0-8512496498

Life cycle analysis of savings accounts with matching contributions

In this study, we examined the macroeconomic effects and welfare implications of the new voluntary saving accounts enacted in Turkey. The most salient features of these accounts include tax advantages, government matching contributions, and the fees levied on returns and contributions. Using an overlapping generations model, we demonstrated that the new saving accounts with no fees eventually raise the capital stock by 29.7% and the net saving rate by 0.50 percentage points. Our long-run analysis yielded two other noteworthy results. First, matching contributions generate stronger saving incentives than the tax advantages. Second, the fees implemented on these accounts curtail higher contributions and hence should be eliminated. The transition analysis revealed that the low- and medium-income young individuals benefit the most during the implementation phase of the plan. In contrast, the old-age high-income group incurred a loss. Hence, a government, with long-run commitment to the current system, can achieve a substantial increase in the capital stock and promote the well-being of the least advantaged group, that is, young and low-income individuals in the economy

Ticaret, kadınlara karşı mı, onların lehine mi çalışır? Türkiye imalat sektöründen ampirik kanıtlar

This paper studies the effect of trade openness on relative wage earnings of female workers in Turkey’s manufacturing sector. We compute the export intensity of a sector by dividing the export value to production value as our measure of trade openness. Using Structure of Earnings Survey data for 2010 and 2014, we estimate the impact of export intensity on the gender wage gap. Our results indicate that a onepercentage point increase in the export intensity of a sector leads to a 0.17 percent higher gender wage gap. We further investigate the trade-gender wage gap link by grouping the sectors into four quartiles according to their export intensities. Our estimations for each quartile reinforce our finding of a negative impact of trade on the male-female wage inequality. Lastly, we analyze how the wage gap between men and women change according to skill levels. In line with the previous findings in the literature, we estimate a higher wage discrimination against high-skill women.Bu çalışma, ticaretin Türkiye imalat sektöründeki kadın işçilerin göreli ücret kazançları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan ticarete açıklık değeri, sektörlerin ihracat değerini üretim değerine bölerek hesapladığımız sektör ihracat yoğunluğudur. 2010 ve 2014 için Kazanç Yapısı Araştırması verilerini kullanarak, ihracat yoğunluğunun cinsiyetler arası ücret farkı üzerindeki etkisini ölçmekteyiz. Sonuçlarımız, bir sektörün ihracat yoğunluğundaki bir yüzde puanlık artışın kadın ve erkekler arasındaki ücret farkını yüzde 0,17 oranında arttırdığına işaret etmektedir. Sektörleri ihracat yoğunluklarına göre dörtte birlik gruplara ayırarak yaptığımız analiz de benzer sonuçlar vermektedir. Erkekler ve kadınlar arasındaki ücret farkının eğitim seviyelerine göre nasıl değiştiğine baktığımızda ise, literatürdeki önceki bulgulara paralel olarak, yüksek eğitimli kadınların daha fazla ücret ayrımcılığına maruz kaldığı sonucuna ulaşmaktayız

The impact of capital flows on banks’ liquidity and profitability

Bu çalışma farklı türdeki sermaye hareketlerinin bankaların likiditelerini ve kârlılıklarını nasıl etkilediğini incelemektedir. Portföy girişleri banka likiditesini anlamlı bir şekilde arttırsa da pozitif bir etki doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları için geçerli değildir. Yerli ve yabancı bankalar sermaye akımlarının banka likiditesini etkilemesi açısından birbirlerinden farklılaşmaktadırlar. Yurtiçi bankaların talepleri kaynaklı etkiyi dışlayıp sadece yurtdışından gelen arz etkisini anlamak için küresel risk iştahı endeksi 4 **** (VIX) sermaye hareketlerini temsil eden bir araç değişken olarak kullanıldığında, banka likiditesi üzerindeki etki daha da belirginleşmektedir

The impact of macroprudential and monetary policies on credit growth rate: Bank size and credit type.

This study analyzes the effects of monetary policy tools and macro prudential measures on credit growth during 2002Q4-2015Q1 period by using Turkish banking sector balance sheet data and panel data estimation methods. Unlike earlier studies, these effects are examined with an asset size and credit type breakdown. This breakdown is necessary as the differences observed between big and small banks with respect to their asset and liability composition can cause monetary and macro prudential policies to have asymmetric effects on credit growth rates, depending on the credit type. The estimation results show that a tighter monetary policy manifested by 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces total credit growth rate of big banks by 0.83 percentage points while the consumer credit growth of big banks declines by 1.12-1.18 percentage points. On the other hand, a tighter macro prudential policy slows down credit growth of small banks for total and commercial credits, whereas for big banks, these policies only have an accelerating impact on commercial credits