Think National, Forecast Local: A Case Study of 71 German Urban Housing Markets

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to predict housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. We are interested in whether local business confidence indicators facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears to dominate all the others for all cities and market segments. However, there are several predictors that are especially useful, namely price-to-rent ratios, the business confidence at the national level, and consumer surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are consistently selected among the top forecasting models/approaches. However, given a rather small sample size in our recursive forecasting exercise, the optimal combination weights is only possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by a reduction in RMSFE, compared to the naive models. In separate cases, however, the magnitude of improvement is about 40%

The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort

In most industrialized countries, the work and family patterns of the baby boomers characterized by more heterogeneous working careers and less stable family lives set them apart from preceding cohorts. Thus, it is of crucial importance to understand how these different work and family lives are linked to the boomers' prospective material well-being as they retire. This paper presents a new and unique matching-based approach for the projection of the life courses of German baby boomers, called the LAW-Life Projection Model. Basis for the projection are data from 27 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel linked with administrative pension records from the German Statutory Pension In-surance that cover lifecycle pension-relevant earnings. Unlike model-based micro simula-tions that age the data year by year our matching-based projection uses sequences from older birth cohorts to complete the life-courses of statistically similar baby boomers through to retirement. An advantage of this approach is to coherently project the work-life and family trajectories as well as lifecycle earnings. The authors present a benchmark anal-ysis to assess the validity and accuracy of the projection. For this purpose, they cut a signif-icant portion of already lived lives and test different combinations of matching algorithms and donor pool specifications to identify the combination that produces the best fit be-tween previously cut but observed and projected life-course information. Exploiting the advantages of the projected data, the authors compare the returns to education - measured in terms of pension entitlements - across cohorts. The results indicate that within cohorts, differences between individuals with low and high educational attainment increase over time for men and women in East and West Germany. East German boomer women with low educational attainment face the most substantial losses in pension entitlements that put them at a high risk of being poor as they retire

Jahresbericht : Bericht über das Schuljahr ...

Realgymnasium zu Gelsenkirche

Jahresbericht : über das Schuljahr ...

Realprogymnasium zu Gelsenkirche

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Gymnasium zu GelsenkirchenHauptsacht. d. Beil. zu 1905/06: Wissenschaftliche Beilage zum Programm des Gymnasiums zu GelsenkirchenHauptsacht. d. Beil. zu 1907/08: Wissenschaftliche Beilage zum Jahresbericht des Gymnasiums zu Gelsenkirche

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Städtische Realschule in Gelsenkirche

[Photograph of memorial plaque for fallen Jewish soldiers of Gelsenkirchen, 1914-1918].

Note on back states that the plaque was located in the Gelsenkirchen synagogue.Leo GompertzCreated recor

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Realgymnasium i.E. zu GelsenkirchenHauptsacht. d. Beil. zu 1908/09: Beilage zum Jahresberich

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Städtische Oberrealschule zu GelsenkirchenHauptsacht. d. Beil. zu 1911/12: Beilage zum JahresberichtB478!(19-11-09

Rheologische Charakterisierung von Klaerschlaemmen Schlussbericht

SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: F99B1179 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekBundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Bonn (Germany)DEGerman