Structural Volatility in Mexico: A Policy Report

This paper surveys Mexico`s economic weaknesses and provides related policy recommendations. Current problems include weak international financial links and external conditions, a recurrent credit crunch and financial underdevelopment problem, with particularly fragile banks, a weak fiscal situation, due to extreme vulnerability to internal and external shocks, and a latent monetary policy credibility problem. The paper`s policy recommendations include improving external financial links, reducing direct exposure to external shocks, accelerating domestic financial deepening and strengthening existing arrangements, reducing public accounts exposure to internal and external shocks, and stabilizing very high and very low frequency movements in the nominal exchange rate

Serum calcitonin negative Medullary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Medullary thyroid carcinomas (MTC) constitute about 5 to 7 % of thyroid neoplasms. They originate from parafollicular C cells which produce Calcitonin, a hormone which has an impact on calcium metabolism and represents the biochemical activity of MTC. In rare cases pre-operative serum calcitonin can be negative. CASE PRESENTATION: We report on a 73-year-old female patient with a rare case of a serum calcitonin negative medullary thyroid carcinoma who suffered fulminant post-operative course and died of multiple metastasis. CONCLUSION: This case shows that in very rare cases MTCs do not secrete calcitonin making diagnosis and tumour follow-up difficult. To this date, only few reports describing this combination of circumstances were found in the English literature

Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model

Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default

The long history of sovereign debt and the associated enforcement problem have attracted researchers in many fields. In this paper, we survey empirical work by economists, historians, and political scientists. As we review the empirical literature, we emphasize parallel developments in the theory of sovereign debt. One major theme emerges. Although recent research has sought to balance theoretical and empirical considerations, there remains a gap between theories of sovereign debt and the data used to test them. We recommend a number of steps that researchers can take to improve the correspondence between theory and data

Concentration and Foreign Penetration in Latin American Banking Sectors: Impact on Competition and Risk

In recent years, Latin American banking sectors have experienced an accelerated process of concentration and foreign penetration that has prompted diverse views regarding its implications for the competitive behavior of banks and for the financial stability of the system as a whole. Exploiting a rich bank-level balance sheet database for eight Latin American countries, we examine the evolution of concentration and foreign penetration indicators and their impact on competition and risk. We find that, while concentration did not reduce competition in the industry, foreign penetration appears to have led to less competitive banking sectors. Moreover, we find banking sector fragility to be positively related to competition and, through this channel, negatively related to foreign participation, despite the fact that foreign banks in the region are associated with higher insolvency risk due to higher leverage ratios and more volatile returns

Can urban coffee consumption help predict US inflation?

Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with the coffee price as a predictor, and show that the resulting model outperforms the traditional variant in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US inflation. Second, we demonstrate the need to account for the inherent statistical features of predictors such as persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroskedasticity effects when dealing with US inflation. Consequently, we offer robust illustrations to show that the choice of estimator matters for improved US inflation forecasts. Third, the proposed augmented Phillips curve also outperforms time series models such as autoregressive integrated moving average and the fractionally integrated version for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Our results show that augmenting the traditional Phillips curve with the urban coffee price will produce better forecast results for US inflation only when the statistical effects are captured in the estimation process. Our results are robust to alternative measures of inflation, different data frequencies, higher order moments, multiple data samples and multiple forecast horizons

Foreign equity portfolio flow and corruption: a cross-country evidence

This study examines the impact of foreign equity portfolio investment on corruption. Employing a large dataset of 44 countries from 2001 to 2015 and three different measures of corruption, our results show that foreign investors from well-governed countries tend to foster public accountability, reduce asymmetry information and corruption. We find empirical evidence that foreign equity portfolio investment interacts with stock market development and central bank transparency to reduce corruption. Our results suggest that stock market development and central bank transparency are regarded as complementary by international portfolio investors. Further analysis indicates that corruption appears more prevalent in countries where domestic investors dominate the stock market. Our results are robust to endogeneity using dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM). The findings suggest that attracting foreign equity investors reduces corruption, implying significant benefits for portfolio diversification