Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

Dynamical behavior of generic quintessence potentials: constraints on key dark energy observables

We perform a comprehensive study of a class of dark energy models - scalar field models where the effective potential can be described by a polynomial series - exploring their dynamical behavior using the method of flow equations that has previously been applied to inflationary models. Using supernova, baryon oscillation, CMB and Hubble constant data, and an implicit theoretical prior imposed by the scalar field dynamics, we find that the LCDM model provides an excellent fit to the data. Constraints on the generic scalar field potential parameters are presented, along with the reconstructed w(z) histories consistent with the data and the theoretical prior. We propose and pursue computationally feasible algorithms to obtain estimates of the principal components of the equation of state, as well as parameters w_0 and w_a. Further, we use the Monte Carlo Markov Chain machinery to simulate future data based on the Joint Dark Energy Mission, Planck and baryon acoustic oscillation surveys and find that the inverse area figure of merit improves nearly by an order of magnitude. Therefore, most scalar field models that are currently consistent with data can be potentially ruled out by future experiments. We also comment on the classification of dark energy models into "thawing'" and "freezing" in light of the more diverse evolution histories allowed by this general class of potentials.Comment: 22 pages and 12 figures, minor clarifications and a new Figure (#9) added in v3, matches the published PRD version. Chains and high-res figures are available at http://kicp.uchicago.edu/~dhuterer/DE_FLOWROLL/de_flowroll.htm

Gyrations: The Missing Link Between Classical Mechanics with its Underlying Euclidean Geometry and Relativistic Mechanics with its Underlying Hyperbolic Geometry

Being neither commutative nor associative, Einstein velocity addition of relativistically admissible velocities gives rise to gyrations. Gyrations, in turn, measure the extent to which Einstein addition deviates from commutativity and from associativity. Gyrations are geometric automorphisms abstracted from the relativistic mechanical effect known as Thomas precession

THERMAL RADIATION FROM MAGNETIZED NEUTRON STARS: A look at the Surface of a Neutron Star.

Surface thermal emission has been detected by ROSAT from four nearby young neutron stars. Assuming black body emission, the significant pulsations of the observed light curves can be interpreted as due to large surface temperature differences produced by the effect of the crustal magnetic field on the flow of heat from the hot interior toward the cooler surface. However, the energy dependence of the modulation observed in Geminga is incompatible with blackbody emission: this effect will give us a strong constraint on models of the neutron star surface.Comment: 10 pages. tar-compressed and uuencoded postcript file. talk given at the `Jubilee Gamow Seminar', St. Petersburg, Sept. 1994

Radiative neutron capture on a proton at BBN energies

The total cross section for radiative neutron capture on a proton, $np \to d \gamma$, is evaluated at big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) energies. The electromagnetic transition amplitudes are calculated up to next-to leading order within the framework of pionless effective field theory with dibaryon fields. We also calculate the $d\gamma\to np$ cross section and the photon analyzing power for the $d\vec{\gamma}\to np$ process from the amplitudes. The values of low energy constants that appear in the amplitudes are estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis using the relevant low energy experimental data. Our result agrees well with those of other theoretical calculations except for the $np\to d\gamma$ cross section at some energies estimated by an R-matrix analysis. We also study the uncertainties in our estimation of the $np\to d\gamma$ cross section at relevant BBN energies and find that the estimated cross section is reliable to within $\sim$1% error.Comment: 21 pages and 12 eps figures; 6 eps figures and 2 references added, and accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Androgen Receptor Activation in Castration-Recurrent Prostate Cancer: The Role of Src-Family and Ack1

licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Reproduction is permitted for personal, noncommercial use, provided that the article is in whole, unmodified, and properly cited. Received: 2013.12.02; Accepted: 2014.01.06; Published: 2014.06.05 There is growing appreciation that castration-recurrent prostate cancer (CR-CaP) is driven by the continued expression of androgen receptor (AR). AR activation in CR-CaP through various mechanisms, including AR overexpression, expression of AR splice variants or mutants, increased expression of co-regulator proteins, and by post-translational modification, allows for the induction of AR-regulated genes in response to very low levels of tissue-expressed, so-called intracrine androgens, resulting in pathways that mediate CaP proliferation, anti-apoptosis and oncogenic aggressiveness. The current review focuses on the role played by Src-family (SFK) and Ack1 non-receptor tyrosine kinases in activating AR through direct phosphorylation, respectively, on tyrosines 534 or 267, and how these modifications facilitate progression to CR-CaP. The fact that SFK and Ack1 are central mediators for multiple growth factor receptor signaling pathways that become activated in CR-CaP, especially in the context of metastatic growth in the bone, has contributed to recent therapeutic trials using SFK/Ack1 inhibitors in monotherapy or in combination with antagonists of the AR activation axis. Key words: Src-family tyrosine kinases, Ack1, androgen receptor, prostate cancer, castration-recurrence

Paxillin-Y118 phosphorylation contributes to the control of Src-induced anchorage-independent growth by FAK and adhesion

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Focal adhesion kinase (FAK) and Src are protein tyrosine kinases that physically and functionally interact to facilitate cancer progression by regulating oncogenic processes such as cell motility, survival, proliferation, invasiveness, and angiogenesis.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>To understand how FAK affects oncogenesis through the phosphorylation of cellular substrates of Src, we analyzed the phosphorylation profile of a panel of Src substrates in parental and v-Src-expressing FAK+/+ and FAK-/- mouse embryo fibroblasts, under conditions of anchorage-dependent (adherent) and -independent (suspension) growth.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total Src-induced cellular tyrosine phosphorylation as well as the number of phosphotyrosyl substrates was higher in suspension versus adherent cultures. Although the total level of Src-induced cellular phosphorylation was similar in FAK+/+ and FAK-/- backgrounds, the phosphorylation of some substrates was influenced by FAK depending on adherence state. Specifically, in the absence of FAK, Src induced higher phosphorylation of p190RhoGAP, paxillin (poY118) and Crk irrespective of adhesion state, PKC-δ (poY311), connexin-43 (poY265) and Sam68 only under adherent conditions, and p56Dok-2 (poY351) and p120catenin (poY228) only under suspension conditions. In contrast, FAK enhanced the Src-induced phosphorylation of vinculin (poY100 and poY1065) and p130CAS (poY410) irrespective of adherence state, p56Dok-2 (poY351) and p120catenin (poY228) only under adherent conditions, and connexin-43 (poY265), cortactin (poY421) and paxillin (poY31) only under suspension conditions. The Src-induced phosphorylation of Eps8, PLC-γ1 and Shc (poY239/poY240) were not affected by either FAK or adherence status. The enhanced anchorage-independent growth of FAK-/-[v-Src] cells was selectively decreased by expression of paxillin^Y118F, but not by WT-paxillin, p120catenin^Y228For Shc^Y239/240F, identifying for the first time a role for paxillin^poY118in Src-induced anchorage-independent growth. Knockdown of FAK by siRNA in the human colon cancer lines HT-25 and RKO, resulted in increased paxillin^poY118levels under suspension conditions as well as increased anchorage-independent growth, supporting the notion that FAK attenuates anchorage-independent growth by suppressing adhesion-dependent phosphorylation of paxillin^Y118.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data suggest that phosphorylation of Src substrates is a dynamic process, influenced temporally and spatially by factors such as FAK and adhesion.</p

Distinguishing Between Animates And Inanimates: Not By Motion Alone

Martin E. P. Seligman, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, is one of the world\u27s leading authorities on learned helplessness and its relation to optimism and hope. This collection brings together eminent psychologists and professionals whose work has been greatly influenced by Seligman\u27s innovative work

Dynamic response of full-scale sandwich composite structures subject to air-blast loading

Glass-fibre reinforced polymer (GFRP) sandwich structures (1.6 m × 1.3 m) were subject to 30 kg charges of C4 explosive at stand-off distances 8–14 m. Experiments provide detailed data for sandwich panel response, which are often used in civil and military structures, where air-blast loading represents a serious threat. High-speed photography, with digital image correlation (DIC), was employed to monitor the deformation of these structures during the blasts. Failure mechanisms were revealed in the DIC data, confirmed in post-test sectioning. The experimental data provides for the development of analytical and computational models. Moreover, it underlines the importance of support boundary conditions with regards to blast mitigation. These findings were analysed further in finite element simulations, where boundary stiffness was, as expected, shown to strongly influence the panel deformation. In-depth parametric studies are ongoing to establish the hierarchy of the various factors that influence the blast response of sandwich composite structures