Simulated Effects of Cropland Expansion on Summer Climate in Eastern China in the Last Three Centuries

To understand the effects of the land use/cover changes due to agricultural development on summer climate in Eastern China, four 12-year simulations using the WRF-SSiB model were performed. We found that agricultural development resulted in warming and rainy effects. In the middle to lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, the warming effects were approximately 0.6°C and resulted from increased surface net radiation and sensible heat fluxes. In Northeast China, the warming effects were very small due to increases in latent heat fluxes which resulted from the extensive conversion from grassland to cropland. The rainy effect resulted from increases in convective rainfall, which was associated with a warming surface in certain areas of the Yellow River and Yangtze River and a large increase in the surface moisture flux in Northeast China. Conversely, in the middle to lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, the grid-scale rainfall decreased because the climatological northward wind, which is moist and warm, was partially offset by a southward wind anomaly. These findings suggest that the agricultural development left footprints not only on the present climate but also on the historical climate changes before the industrial revolution

Crop Yield and Temperature Changes in North China during 601–900 AD

Depending on the descriptions of crop yield and social response to crop failure/harvest from Chinese historical documents, we classified the crop yield of North China during 601–900 AD into six categories and quantified each category to be the crop yield grades. We found that the regional mean crop yield had a significant (P<0.01) negative trend at the rate of −0.24% per decade. The interannual, multiple-decadal, and century-scale variability accounted for ~47%, ~30%, and ~20% of the total variations of crop yield, respectively. The interannual variability was significantly (P<0.05) persistent across the entire period. The multiple-decadal variability was more dominant after 750 AD than that before 750 AD, while the century-scale variability was more dominant before 750 AD than that after 750 AD. The variations of crop yield could be partly explained by temperature changes. On one hand, the declining trend of crop yield cooccurred with the climate cooling trend from 601 to 900 AD; on the other hand, the crop yield was positively correlated with temperature changes at 30-year resolution with the correlation coefficient of 0.59 (P<0.1). These findings supported that high (low) crop yield occurred in the warming (cooling) climate

Chaperone Limitations in Prion Curing

Amyloid promotes a dramatic transition in protein conformation that perpetuates, giving rise to a broad variety of distinct phenotypes, ranging from pathological disorders to dynamic heritable traits. Amyloid has long been thought to be resistant to clearance by the proteostasis network, but increasing evidence is challenging this view. For example, heat shock disassembles yeast prion amyloids, revealing in vivo solubilization of these aggregates. However, the exact proteostatic niche that promotes amyloid clearance is largely unknown. We identified several environmental stresses leading to prion curing via the same mechanism as heat shock and further showed that a shared characteristic was the activation of the transcription factor heat shock factor 1 (Hsf1). Strikingly, artificial Hsf1 activation interfered with heat shock-mediated prion curing, presumably due to overexpression of a nucleotide exchange factor Sse1. Limiting Sse1, which decelerates the Hsp70 cycle, promoted chaperone loading on prion aggregates and enabled artificial Hsf1 activation to resolve prion aggregates; in contrast, it impaired resolution of stress-induced aggregates and cell growth at elevated temperature. Thus, our study demonstrates that the proteostasis network, fine-tuned for optimal dissolution of non-amyloid aggregates, can be reconfigured for solubilization of amyloid by modulating the Hsp70 cycle.Release after 12/16/202

Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of <i>Carpomya vesuviana</i> (Diptera: Tephritidae), Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

The ber fruit fly Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most destructive pests of Ziziphus spp. Carpomya vesuviana infestation causes great economic losses. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model, and used the updated CliMond 30&#8242; gridded resolution datasets within CLIMEX for the periods 1987&#8211;2016 and 2071&#8211;2100, representing historical and future climates, respectively, to predict the potential global distribution of the pest. Under the historical climate scenario, C. vesuviana had a wide climatically suitable distribution worldwide, from approximately 46&#176; S to 50&#176; N. Future climate change expanded the upper boundary of the potential distribution northward, and predicted that the pest would distribute approximately from 50&#176; S to 60&#176; N. Temperature was the primary determinant of the potential distribution of the pest among all driving variables. Irrigation was associated with a slight improvement in the climate favorability for the pest in some areas, including south-western North America, northern and southern Africa, and most of Oceania. The projections clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. vesuviana, and are instructive for quarantine and management agencies for reducing economic damage caused by the fly and preventing expansion of C. vesuviana due to climate change

Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement

To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions. The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2∼15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29∼1.55°C (median of 1.41°C) above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4∼9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67∼3.74°C (median of 3.17°C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century. Thus, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5‐2.0°C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap

Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987&ndash;2016) and predicted (2021&ndash;2040, 2041&ndash;2080, and 2081&ndash;2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080&ndash;2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi