Labor Market Developments in China: A Neoclassical View

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.labor markets, rural-urban migration, wage growth, schooling returns, Lewis turning point, China

Testing for Asymmetric Employer Learning and Statistical Discrimination

We test the implications of a statistical discrimination model with asymmetric learning. Firms receive signals of productivity over time and may use race to infer worker's productivity. Incumbent employers have more information about workers productivity than outside employers. Using data from the NLSY79, we find evidence of asymmetric learning. In addition, employers statistically discriminate against non-college educated black workers at time of hiring. We also find that employers directly observe most of the productivity of college graduates at hiring, and learn very little over time about these workers

Job and wage mobility in a search model with non-compliance (exemptions) with the minimum wage

We use a simple job search model to explain the doubling of mean hourly earnings of white males, and the five-fold increase in their variance, during the first 18 years of labor market experience. For this purpose we embody minimum wage regulations and imperfect compliance in a job search model encompassing job mobility and on-the-job wage growth as potential sources of wage dynamics. The model is estimated by simulated GMM using data from the NLSY79. Our estimated model provides a good fit for the observed levels and trends of the main job and wage mobility data, and in particular it replicates very well the increase in the first and second moments of the wage distribution over the life cycle, as well as the fall in the fraction of workers paid below the minimum wage. Our estimates imply that job mobility explains between one third and one half of the observed wage growth. Counterfactual experiments of increases in the minimum wage and/or compliance deliver small effects on both the actual wage distribution and the nonemployment rate

Women’s College Decisions: How Much Does Marriage Matter?

This article investigates the sequential college attendance decision of young women and quantifies the effect of marriage expectations on their decision to attend and graduate from college. A dynamic choice model of college attendance, labor supply, and marriage is formulated and structurally estimated using panel data from the NLSY79. The model is used to simulate the effects of no marriage benefits and finds that the predicted college enrollment rate will drop from 58.0% to 50.5%. Using the estimated model, the college attendance behavior for a younger cohort from the NLSY97 is predicted and used to validate the behavioral model.

Marriage, Intergenerational Schooling Effect, and Gender Gap in College Attainment

Abstract One striking phenomenon in the U.S. labor market is the reversal of the gender gap in college attainment. Females have outnumbered males in college attainment since 1987. We develop a discrete choice model of college decision to study the effects of changes in relative earnings, changes in parental education, and changes in the marriage market on time series observations of college attainment by gender. We find that the increases of parental education and relative earnings between college and high school persons have important effects on the increase in college attainment for both genders, while the decrease of marriage rates is crucial in explaining the reversal of gender gap in college attainment