To Bt or not to Bt? Risk and uncertainty considerations in technology assessment

The acreage under the transgenic Bt cotton seeds in India has risen significantly since its legalization in the year 2002. Discussions on the advantages from the technology have focused on increments in productivity and income, without much analysis on risk. We point out that claims on productivity gains seem to be misplaced, as appropriate counterfactuals do not exist for the same hybrids. In this article we analyse production costs and crop incomes in drought years to test a simplistic theory of risk based on first principles. We employ a mixed-methods framework to draw inferences by combining data from two cross-sectional surveys in Gujarat (Saurashtra and Southern-Plains) and Maharashtra (Western Vidarbha) for the period 2009-10 and compare it with unit-level data for the corresponding regions from a nationally representative sample for the period 2002-03. Empirical evidence, though limited, brings out the problem of how a high cost technology could be associated with higher risks and may be dominated by traditional alternatives under certain conditions. Ethnographic accounts from the field provide qualitative support to our understanding of potential risks and uncertainties associated with the new technology.Bt cotton, agricultural risk, technology evaluation, mixed-methods, India

Size-class and returns to cultivation in India: A Cold case reopened

This paper investigates the relationship between returns to cultivation per hectare and size-class of land cultivated in India, using unit level data from the 59th round National Sample Survey, 2003. The analysis is done separately for `kharif' and `rabi' - for total value of cultivation from all crops at the all India level. The empirical evidence rejects the null hypothesis of no relationship and points to the existence of an inverse association. We argue that the efficiency of the small-holders has to be taken with a pinch of salt because their low absolute returns brings into focus the question of their livelihood sustainability which is further aggravated on account of higher unit costs. Being the first exercise in a series of proposed explorations into disaggregated analyses across states, and for specific crops, it opens up the classic debate on farm size and productivity in the 21st century.agrarian crisis, agriculture, efficiency, livelihood sustainability, NSS, productivity, size-class

Kinetic behavior of liquefaction of Japanese beech in subcritical phenol.

Non-catalytic liquefaction of Japanese beech (Fagus crenata) wood in subcritical phenol was investigated using a batch-type reaction vessel. After samples were treated at 160 °C/0.9 MPa-350 °C/4.2 MPa for 3-30 min, they were fractionated into a phenol-soluble portion and phenol-insoluble residues. These residues were then analyzed for their chemical composition. Based on the obtained data, the kinetics for liquefaction was modeled using first-order reaction rate law. Subsequently, the liquefaction rate constants of the major cell wall components including cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin were determined. The different kinetic mechanisms were found to exist for lignin and cellulose at two different temperature ranges, lower 160-290 °C and higher 310-350 °C, whereas for hemicellulose, it was only liquefied in the lower temperature range. Thus, the liquefaction behaviors of these major cell wall components highlighted hemicellulose to be the most susceptible to liquefaction, followed by lignin and cellulose

Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) approach on Nutritional Diagnosis in Fruit crops- A Review

Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) is widely used statistical approach for interpretation of the plant tissue analysis data and to diagnose the plant nutreint needs much earlier than the reduction of crop yield with greater accuracy. It helps in simultaneous identifying imbalances, deficiencies and excesses of crop nutrients and ranks them in the order of their importance for their remedial steps. The DRIS norms based on foliar composition can developed in any crop and at any stage of its development. It provides a mathematical means of ordering large number of nutrient ratios into nutrient indices that can be easily interpreted. The nutrient ranges been established as deficient, low, optimum, high and excessive based on the mean of nutrient concentration and standard deviation from high yielding population to serve as a guide for a quick and routine diagnostic and advisory purpose. The major advantage of DRIS lies in its ability to minimize the effect of variation in tissue age on diagnosis, which allows a choice of wider range of tissues than permissible under the conventional critical value approach. Thus, DRIS is holistic in nature for identification of nutrient imbalance in crops and formulation of nutrient management strategies for achieving higher yields