Images of Europeans: In-Group Trust and Support for European Integration. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 3, March 2014

Prior research on citizen support for European integration does not consider how individuals’ evaluations of European nationalities are associated with support. This paper fills this gap by developing a political cohesion model based on social identity theory. I claim that the probability of supporting integration increases with greater levels of trust in fellow Europeans, which assumes to reflect their positive images. Also, trust in eastern European Union nationalities has the highest impact on the probability for support, followed by trust in the southern nationalities, and then northern nationalities due to the eastern and southern nationalities relatively lower economic development. Controlling for various factors, the ordered logistic regression analysis of the European Election Study (2004) data support these claims

Trade Triangulation: The Stalemate of the FTAA and EU-MERCOSUR FTA Negotiations

Why are some free trade agreements (FTAs) in the western hemisphere successfully negotiated and implemented while others seem to stagnate during negotiations? FTAs develop when there is an asymmetrical power relationship and potential partners are satisfied with potential trade patterns. The European Union (EU) and United States have been successful in negotiating agreements with the Caribbean and Central American countries. However, current bilateral and multilateral trade talks between the EU, the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), and US are at a standstill. Trade patterns are unsatisfactory for the MERCOSUR members because they are not able to maximize their comparative advantage. Additionally, neither the EU nor US are willing to use their power capabilities to reduce this dissatisfaction. Finally, the growing Chinese economic profile in Latin America further complicates the ability for the three actors to achieve a set of satisfactory trade relations. Evidence to support these arguments comes from archival research of the failed EU-MERCOSUR FTA and Free Trade Agreement of the Americas negotiations

From War to Integration: Generalizing the Dynamic of Power Transitions

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China’s potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the pre-conditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.

Public Perceptions of the European Power Hierarchy and Support for a Common Foreign and Security Policy

Prior research on citizen support for European integration has primarily focused on individuals’ evaluations of the process of integration or its institutions, with emphasis on the importance of direct benefits and costs integration can confer. Explanations focus on overall support for integration and little work has been done on explaining public opinion on specific policy areas, such as the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This paper will fill this gap in the research by synthesizing systems theory with social identity theory to produce a core claim that the probability of supporting the CFSP increases with greater levels of political trust in the European Union member-states, most notably France and Germany. This variable is critical since integration’s development is influenced strongly by, and dependent on, the resources of the relatively more powerful European member-states. The results hold even when controlling for other factors. Binary logistic regression analysis using pooled repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 1992 through 1997 among individuals of 11 member-states largely support these claims

The European Power Hierarchy, Member State Trust, and Public Support for the Common Security and Defense Policy. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 15 No. 2, August 2015

Existing studies focus on overall support for European integration while less work has been done on explaining public opinion on specific policy areas, such as the development of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). We hypothesize that the probability of supporting a CSDP increases with greater levels of trust in the European Union member states, most notably the more powerful members. This variable is critical since integration’s development is influenced strongly by, and dependent on, the resources of the relatively more powerful European member states. Binary logistic regression analyses using pooled repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted from 1992 to 1997 among individuals of 11 member states largely support these claims

Political Performance, Leadership, and Regional Integration in Europe: An Examination of the French and German Roles

Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states is central to the creation and deepening of regional integration since it is this capacity that smoothes out the transition from a closed to an open economy. Should a state have low levels of this capacity but desire openness, it will partner with regional leaders given the leaders’ higher relative political capacity. However, the leaders’ subsidy of a partner’s capacity comes at a price. The leaders would trade political capacity for forming a regional bloc along its preferences. A partner will join with a regional leader so long as it is satisfied with the leaders’ preferences. By doing so, it reduces the cost of the subsidy. Our analysis of European integration indicates that French and German relative political capacities are an important factor in the continent’s unifying efforts by conditioning institutional homogeneity and capital stocks mobility, both of which are critical for political and economic union. However, the German effect contrasts with the French effect in that we discover greater German effectiveness in mitigating potential barriers to integration

Power Preponderance, Institutional Homogeneity, and the Likelihood of Regional Integration. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 7 No. 12 July 2007

[Introduction]. What explains the variation of regional integration worldwide? The literature on regional integration is as old as the first attempts to establish the European Union (EU), but the attempt to develop generalized theories with systematic testing is relatively new. As the number of regional projects increases, and with the added complexity of overlapping memberships, we are faced with task of explaining and predicting these new movements of cross border cooperation. The project outlined in this paper attempts to continue the current trend of theory development and empirical analysis. After reviewing the range of theories, a central argument will be developed that will synthesize power transition and institutional theories of regional integration. Specifically, the likelihood of institutionalized regional integration increases under a power preponderance structural condition and high levels of trade which promote homogenization of domestic institutions. Increasing homogenization, in turn, promotes trade and integration. A common definition of regional integration states that it is a shifting of certain national activities toward a new center (Haas 1958). Integration therefore is a form of collective action among countries in order to obtain specific goals. These goals can be as grand as political unification (in the case of the EU) or a free trade area, as found in the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA). Lindberg refines the definition by proposing that it is an “evolution over time of a collective decision making system among nations. If the collective arena becomes the focus of certain kinds of decision making activity, national actors will in that measure be constrained from independent action” (1970: 46). In economic terms it is “a series of voluntary decisions by previously sovereign states to remove barriers to the mutual exchange of goods, services, capital, or persons” (Smith 1993: 4). Also in the vein of economics, integration can also simply mean the degree of market merger among states. This refers to the amount of goods, services, capital, and labor flows among states. While this captures an essence of what is occurring, it misses the institutional aspect of integration which is central to its definition. The degree of market merger occurs because the states have negotiated an established practice of market flows and their regulation. For the purposes of this paper, the definition of integration will follow closely the definitions purposed by Hass and Lindberg. Regional integration(1) is the establishment of regular collective decision making among states for the intention of establishing and regulating market flows. The degree of integration refers to the degree of collective decision making. At one end is an intergovernmental arrangement in which states make common decisions but are autonomous in regulating those decisions. If a regional authority does exist, it services at the pleasure of the individual states. On the opposite end is the supranational arrangement, in which regional institutions do exist and make decisions alongside intergovernmental arrangements or supersede the member-states’ authority. The rest of the paper examines the literature on regional integration with the aim of reviewing, critiquing, and synthesizing prior theories. The synthesis is the establishment of a general theory of regionalism. The subsequent sections will examine the method to test the key hypotheses using systematic measures of the variables and future direction of this proposed research