Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evaluations of Partisan Fairness in District-Based Democracies

We clarify the theoretical foundations of partisan fairness standards for district-based democratic electoral systems, including essential assumptions and definitions not previously recognized, formalized, or in some cases even discussed. We also offer extensive empirical evidence for assumptions with observable implications. We cover partisan symmetry, the most commonly accepted fairness standard, and other perspectives. Throughout, we follow a fundamental principle of statistical inference too often ignored in this literature—defining the quantity of interest separately so its measures can be proven wrong, evaluated, and improved. This enables us to prove which of the many newly proposed fairness measures are statistically appropriate and which are biased, limited, or not measures of the theoretical quantity they seek to estimate at all. Because real-world redistricting and gerrymandering involve complicated politics with numerous participants and conflicting goals, measures biased for partisan fairness sometimes still provide useful descriptions of other aspects of electoral systems

THE EFFECT OF SECURITY AND DOMINANCE ON TASK PERSEVERANCE

The present study investigated Maslow\u27s assertion that individuals who were insecure and dominant would express their insecurity in a different manner than those individuals who were insecure and submissive. The amount of time spent on a puzzle solving task was used as an index of the expression of insecurity. It was hypothesized that there would be a significant interaction of security and dominance on the amount of time spent on the puzzle solving task, with the insecure-dominant group demonstrating more persistence than the insecure-submissive group at the task. A pool of potential subjects completed Maslow\u27s (1952) Security-Insecurity Inventory and the E factor of the 16 PF. Individuals with extreme scores were assigned to either the secure-dominant, secure-submissive, insecure-dominant, or insecure-submissive group. Subjects were tested individually. A total of 52 subjects, 20 males and 32 females, participated in the study. Each cell contained a proportional number of males and females. The hypothesized interaction of security and dominance failed to materialize. There were no significant main effects. These findings were explained in terms of task appropriateness, insufficient task frustration and the lack of validity of Maslow‘s hypothesis. The Motivational Adjective Checklist (MACL) (Sciortino, 1963) which yields two factor scores striving and assertive , was used as a paper and pencil measure of motivation. It was found that the secure group obtained higher assertive and striving scores than did the insecure group, suggesting construct validity of the MACL. The results also indicated that members of the dominant group obtained higher assertive scores, but there were no differences on striving scores when compared to members of the submissive group. These results suggest that a higher assertive factor score reflects a more positive self-concept

A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across theparties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn.Governmen

A Comparison of Changes in the Structure of Wages

This paper compares changes in the structure of wages in France, Great Britain, Japan. and the United States over the last twenty years. Wage differentials by education and occupation (skill differentials) narrowed substantially in all four countries in the 1970s. Overall wage inequality and skill differentials expanded dramatically in Great Britain and the United States and moderately in Japan during the 1980s. In contrast, wage inequality did not increase much in France through the mid-1980s. Industrial and occupational shifts favored more-educated workers in all four countries throughout the last twenty years. Reductions in the rate of the growth of the relative supply of college-educated workers in the face of persistent increases in the relative demand for more-skilled labor can explain a substantial portion of the increase in educational wage differentials in the United States, Britain, and Japan in the 1980s. Sharp increases in the national minimum wage (the SM1C) and the ability of French unions to extend contracts even in the face of declining membership helped prevent wage differentials from expanding in France through the mid-1980s.

A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn

Why Did The Incumbency Advantage In U.S. House Elections Grow?

In the last twenty years, scholars have scrutinized the electoral advantages conferred by incumbency-both at the federal and at the state level-more than perhaps any other factor affecting U .S. legislative elections.1 Much of the literature focuses on explaining why the incumbency advantage in U .S. House elections grew so substantially, starting in the mid-1960s. The dominant contenders in the literature are two, one emphasizing resources of various kinds (Mayhew 1974) and opportunities to perform constituency services (Fiorina 1977; 1989), one emphasizing partisan dealignment (Erikson 1972; Burnham 1974; Ferejohn 1977). While not incompatible, these explanations do point to significantly different factors as key, and neither has emerged as a clear winner. In this paper, we suggest a new approach to measuring the incumbency advantage, one that disaggregates the total value of incumbency into three components. By examining the trends over time in these three components we find evidence suggesting that much of the growth in the incumbency advantage at the federal level cannot be accounted for by resource growth; rather, some version of the dealignment story will have to be employed

Currents and pollutant dispersion in Lake Michigan, modeled with emphasis on the Calumet Region

This report summarizes several years of Lake Michigan modeling efforts, with emphasis on recent, previously unpublished results and their implications for the preservation and improvement of nearshore water quality. These efforts, including the development of practical techniques for simulating large-scale circulation and dispersion, have illuminated some remaining technical problems and suggested ways for effectively modeling highly polluted regions like the Chicago-Calumet Harbor shoreline. The use of hydrodynamic models in Great Lakes water-quality applications is briefly discussed, with special emphasis on pollutant-transport models and their use in studies of the fate of effluents discharged near shore in areas such as Calumet Harbor. Previously reported Illinois-WRC-funded lake modeling efforts at UICC are reviewed. Computer graphics capabilities developed for effectively displaying model results and observations are described. An adaptation of the Simons three-dimensional current model for Lake Michigan pollutant-dispersion studies is presented; the original model was verified extensively for Lake Ontario during the IFYGL effort. Typical results from the Lake Michigan version are presented to demonstrate its excellent capabilities for treating a wide range of large-scale phenomena. A rationale is developed for the use of local episode simulations as a means of overcoming some difficulties in obtaining sufficient data for calibration and verification of whole-lake models. Then, following short descriptions of the Calumet Harbor region of Lake Michigan as a pollutant source and of the Chicago Department of Water and Sewers intake water quality data for the Chicago shoreline, an application of a simple model to some observed "bad-water" episodes is presented. Comparison of observations and model results suggests that the onset of some periods of extreme pollution is governed by wind-driven transport. Such comparison also indicates that, under southerly wind conditions, high pollutant levels are often observed at the 68th St. Crib within 20-40 hours following a heavy rain at Calumet Harbor. The limitations of using a purely hydrodynamic model to treat bioreactive contaminants are shown, and improvements in resolution required in future, more accurate episode models are estimated. The use of models in analyzing complicated bad-water episodes is briefly investigated. A number of conclusions are drawn regarding the directions in which future nearshore research efforts might profitably proceed.U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyOpe