Essays on the political economy of state government saving and the role of budget stabilization funds

This dissertation explores the saving behavior of state governments in the context of the ability of states to weather recessionary periods. The first chapter of the dissertation discusses the role of savings as a policy option for state decision-makers in light of the fiscal constraints facing state governments, reviews the previous literature that has examined the savings behavior of state governments, and outlines the research agenda for the dissertation. Chapter 2 provides statistics on the post-World War II savings of states to explore recent trends in their savings behavior and discusses the data employed in the dissertation. The third chapter examines an implication of the common pool problem associated with public sector savings by investigating how anticipated future changes in the controlling parties of states\u27 legislatures affect the current level of saving. The results provide evidence that state saving is adversely impacted by future changes in controlling political parties, suggesting that politically unstable states may be ill-prepared to deal with recessions relative to politically stable states. Chapter 4 of the dissertation examines the role that political stability and other factors have had on states\u27 choices to adopt budget stabilization funds. The results provide evidence that states which have experienced more long-term political instability, have been severely hit by recessions, and have expenditure and/or tax limitation laws in place, are more likely to adopt a budget stabilization fund as an additional vehicle for saving. The final research chapter of the dissertation investigates the effectiveness of budget stabilization funds by examining how states\u27 savings behavior has changed as a result of utilizing budget stabilization funds. The results from this chapter provide evidence that budget stabilization funds governed by explicit deposit and withdrawal rules can assist state decision-makers in saving and thus enhance a state\u27s ability to mitigate recessions in the future. Chapter 6 provides a summary of the dissertation and discusses areas of future research investigating state saving and budget stabilization funds

John Cotton\u27s Middle Way

Historians are divided concerning the ecclesiological thought of seventeenth-century minister John Cotton. Some argue that he supported a church structure based on suppression of lay rights in favor of the clergy, strengthening of synods above the authority of congregations, and increasingly narrow church membership requirements. By contrast, others arrive at virtually opposite conclusions. This thesis evaluates Cotton\u27s correspondence and pamphlets through the lense of moderation to trace the evolution of Cotton\u27s thought on these ecclesiological issues during his ministry in England and Massachusetts. Moderation is discussed in terms of compromise and the abatement of severity in the context of ecclesiastical toleration, the balance between lay and clerical power, and the extent of congregational and synodal authority. These issues influenced debates about Congregationalist and Presbyterian reform of the English Church and religious diversity in Massachusetts. I find that Cotton\u27s thought and practices while in England were more inclusive of religious differences than they were in his colonial ministry because he attempted to work within the doctrinal and ceremonial parameters of the English Church and his doctrine of adiaphora . Adiaphora, also called indifferent matters, were religious practices or doctrines that led neither to salvation nor damnation. During his English ministry, Cotton taught that most of the ceremonial practices that divided many Puritans and Conformists were adiaphora and could be tolerated in his congregation. There was also a subversive element to his teachings on adiaphora since, unlike some Puritans, Cotton was not willing to submit to church demands for conformity on most indifferent matters. In New England, Cotton became part of the religious and political establishment, and his doctrine of indifferent matters narrowed, because he did not have an incentive to subvert this new order or compromise with non-Puritan colonists. Cotton supported stricter church membership rules due to the influence of Separatism and competition between Precisionist and Antinomian strains of Puritanism. Cotton\u27s congregational thought was more moderate towards those who attained membership. Through the fusion of Separatist and Presbyterian influences, Cotton created a church that was inclusive of lay and clerical power and balanced the autonomy of congregations with synodal authority

The Sources and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth

China’s economic transformation is proceeding at different rates across different regions and sectors, and China’s most advanced regional sector, coastal industry, still lags well behind the world’s technology frontier. This paper explores the implications of these internal and international productivity disparities for China’s ability to sustain rapid economic growth. When China’s GDP catches up to U.S. GDP, Chinese living standards still will be only one quarter those of the United States. If, at that time, productivity in some major regions and sectors remains far below the average, coastal industry may have to achieve productivity that approaches or even exceeds U.S. productivity. Coastal industry’s productivity growth is then likely to slow substantially, impeding China’s overall economic growth. The paper examines the need for policies that facilitate economic integration across regions, to enable the lagging regions and sectors to catch up to coastal industry, and the prospects for continued institutional reform.China, macroeconomics, economic growth, China GDP

R&D and Technology Transfer: Firm-Level Evidence from Chinese Industry

The capacity of developing economies to narrow the gap in living standards with the OECD nations depends critically on their ability to imitate and innovate new technologies. Toward this end, developing economies have access to three avenues of technological advance: technology transfer, domestic R&D, and foreign direct investment. This paper examines the contributions of each of these avenues, as well as their interactions, to productivity and knowledge production within Chinese industry. Based on a large data set for China’s large and medium-size enterprises, the estimation results show that technology transfer – whether domestic or foreign – affects productivity only through its interactions with in-house R&D. Foreign direct investment does not appear to facilitate the adoption of market-mediated foreign technology transfer. Firms wishing to produce patentable knowledge do not benefit from technology transfer; patentable knowledge is created exclusively through in-house R&D operations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39968/3/wp582.pd

Co-occurrence across time and space of drug- and cannabinoid- exposure and adverse mental health outcomes in the National Survey of Drug Use and Health: combined geotemporospatial and causal inference analysis

Background: Whilst many studies have linked increased drug and cannabis exposure to adverse mental health (MH) outcomes their effects on whole populations and geotemporospatial relationships are not well understood. Methods Ecological cohort study of National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) geographically-linked substate-shapefiles 2010–2012 and 2014–2016 supplemented by five-year US American Community Survey. Drugs: cigarettes, alcohol abuse, last-month cannabis use and last-year cocaine use. MH: any mental illness, major depressive illness, serious mental illness and suicidal thinking. Data analysis: two-stage, geotemporospatial, robust generalized linear regression and causal inference methods in R. Results 410,138 NSDUH respondents. Average response rate 76.7%. When drug and sociodemographic variables were combined in geospatial models significant terms including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis exposure and various ethnicities remained in final models for all four major mental health outcomes. Interactive terms including cannabis were related to any mental illness (β-estimate = 1.97 (95%C.I. 1.56–2.37), P \u3c  2.2 × 10− 16), major depressive episode (β-estimate = 2.03 (1.54–2.52), P = 3.6 × 10− 16), serious mental illness (SMI, β-estimate = 2.04 (1.48–2.60), P = 1.0 × 10− 12), suicidal ideation (β-estimate = 1.99 (1.52–2.47), P \u3c  2.2 × 10− 16) and in each case cannabis alone was significantly associated (from β-estimate = − 3.43 (− 4.46 − −2.42), P = 3.4 × 10− 11) with adverse MH outcomes on complex interactive regression surfaces. Geospatial modelling showed a monotonic upward trajectory of SMI which doubled (3.62 to 7.06%) as cannabis use increased. Extrapolated to whole populations cannabis decriminalization (4.26%, (4.18, 4.34%)), Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.035(1.034–1.036), attributable fraction in the exposed (AFE) = 3.28%(3.18–3.37%), P \u3c 10− 300) and legalization (4.75% (4.65, 4.84%), PR = 1.155 (1.153–1.158), AFE = 12.91% (12.72–13.10%), P \u3c 10− 300) were associated with increased SMI vs. illegal status (4.26, (4.18–4.33%)). Conclusions Data show all four indices of mental ill-health track cannabis exposure across space and time and are robust to multivariable adjustment for ethnicity, socioeconomics and other drug use. MH deteriorated with cannabis legalization. Cannabis use-MH data are consistent with causal relationships in the forward direction and include dose-response and temporal-sequential relationships. Together with similar international reports and numerous mechanistic studies preventative action to reduce cannabis use is indicated

What are the characteristics of vitamin D metabolism in opioid dependence? An exploratory longitudinal study in Australian primary care

OBJECTIVE: Compare vitamin D levels in opioid dependence and control population and adjust for relevant confounding effects. Nuclear hormone receptors (including the vitamin D receptor) have been shown to be key transducers and regulators of intracellular metabolism and comprise an important site of pathophysiological immune and metabolic dysregulation potentially contributing towards pro-ageing changes observed in opioid-dependent patients (ODPs). DESIGN: Longitudinal prospective comparing ODPs with general medical controls (GMCs). SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Prospective review comparing 1168 ODP (72.5% men) and 415 GMC (51.6% men, p INTERVENTIONS: Nil. Observational study only. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Serum vitamin D levels and relevant biochemical parameters. RESULTS: Vitamin D levels were higher in the ODP (70.35±1.16 and 57.06±1.81 nmol/L, p CONCLUSION: Vitamin D was higher in ODP in both sexes in bivariate, cross-sectional, cas

Broad spectrum epidemiological contribution of cannabis and other substances to the teratological profile of northern New South Wales: Geospatial and causal inference analysis

© 2020, The Author(s). Background: Whilst cannabis commercialization is occurring rapidly guided by highly individualistic public narratives, evidence that all congenital anomalies (CA) increase alongside cannabis use in Canada, a link with 21 CA’s in Hawaii, and rising CA’s in Colorado indicate that transgenerational effects can be significant and impact public health. It was therefore important to study Northern New South Wales (NNSW) where cannabis use is high. Methods: Design: Cohort. 2008–2015. Setting: NNSW and Queensland (QLD), Australia. Participants. Whole populations. Exposures. Tobacco, alcohol, cannabis. Source: National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 2010, 2013. Main Outcomes. CA Rates. NNSW-QLD comparisons. Geospatial and causal regression. Results: Cardiovascular, respiratory and gastrointestinal anomalies rose with falling tobacco and alcohol but rising cannabis use rates across Queensland. Maternal age NNSW-QLD was not different (2008–2015: 4265/22084 v. 96,473/490514 \u3e 35 years/total, Chi.Sq. = 1.687, P = 0.194). A higher rate of NNSW cannabis-related than cannabis-unrelated defects occurred (prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.13, 95%C.I. 1.80–2.52, P = 3.24 × 10− 19). CA’s rose more potently with rising cannabis than with rising tobacco or alcohol use. Exomphalos and gastroschisis had the highest NNSW:QLD PR (6.29(2.94–13.48) and 5.85(3.54–9.67)) and attributable fraction in the exposed (84.11%(65.95–92.58%) and 82.91%(71.75–89.66%), P = 2.83 × 10− 8 and P = 5.62 × 10− 15). In multivariable geospatial models cannabis was significantly linked with cardiovascular (atrial septal defect, ventricular septal defect, tetralogy of Fallot, patent ductus arteriosus), genetic (chromosomal defects, Downs syndrome), gastrointestinal (small intestinal atresia), body wall (gastroschisis, diaphragmatic hernia) and other (hypospadias) (AVTPCDSGDH) CA’s. In linear modelling cannabis use was significantly linked with anal stenosis, congenital hydrocephalus and Turner syndrome (ACT) and was significantly linked in borderline significant models (model P \u3c 0.1) with microtia, microphthalmia, and transposition of the great vessels. At robust and mixed effects inverse probability weighted multivariable regression cannabis was related to 18 defects. 16/17 E-Values in spatial models were \u3e 1.25 ranging up to 5.2 × 1013 making uncontrolled confounding unlikely. Conclusions: These results suggest that population level CA’s react more strongly to small rises in cannabis use than tobacco or alcohol; cardiovascular, chromosomal, body wall and gastrointestinal CA’s rise significantly with small increases in cannabis use; that cannabis is a bivariate correlate of AVTPCDSGDH and ACT anomalies, is robust to adjustment for other substances; and is causal

Cannabis consumption patterns explain the east-west gradient in Canadian neural tube defect incidence: An ecological study

While a known link between prenatal cannabis exposure and anencephaly exists, the relationship of prenatal cannabis exposure with neural tube defects (NTDs) generally has not been defined. Published data from Canada Health and Statistics Canada were used to assess this relationship. Both cannabis use and NTDs were shown to follow an east-west and north-south gradient. Last year cannabis consumption was significantly associated (P \u3c .0001; cannabis use–time interaction P \u3c .0001). These results were confirmed when estimates of termination for anomaly were used. Canada Health population data allowed the calculation of an NTD odds ratio) of 1.27 (95% confidence interval = 1.19-1.37; P \u3c 10−11) for high-risk provinces versus the remainder with an attributable fraction in exposed populations of 16.52% (95% confidence interval = 12.22-20.62). Data show a robust positive statistical association between cannabis consumption as both a qualitative and quantitative variable and NTDs on a background of declining NTD incidence. In the context of multiple mechanistic pathways these strong statistical findings implicate causal mechanisms

Contemporary epidemiology of rising atrial septal defect trends across USA 1991–2016: A combined ecological geospatiotemporal and causal inferential study

© 2020, The Author(s). Background: Cardiovascular anomalies are the largest group of congenital anomalies and the major cause of death in young children, with various data linking rising atrial septal defect incidence (ASDI) with prenatal cannabis exposure. Objectives / Hypotheses. Is cannabis associated with ASDI in USA? Is this relationship causal? Methods: Geospatiotemporal cohort study, 1991–2016. Census populations of adults, babies, congenital anomalies, income and ethnicity. Drug exposure data on cigarettes, alcohol abuse, past month cannabis use, analgesia abuse and cocaine taken from National Survey of Drug Use and Health (78.9% response rate). Cannabinoid concentrations from Drug Enforcement Agency. Inverse probability weighted (ipw) regressions. Analysis conducted in R. Results: ASDI rose nationally three-fold from 27.4 to 82.8 / 10,000 births 1991–2014 during a period when tobacco and alcohol abuse were falling but cannabis was rising. States including Nevada, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee had steeply rising epidemics (Time: Status β-estimate = 10.72 (95%C.I. 8.39–13.05), P \u3c 2.0 × 10 − 16). ASDI was positively related to exposure to cannabis and most cannabinoids. Drug exposure data was near-complete from 2006 thus restricting spatial modelling from 2006 to 2014, N = 282. In geospatial regression models cannabis: alcohol abuse term was significant (β-estimate = 19.44 (9.11, 29.77), P = 2.2 × 10 − 4); no ethnic or income factors survived model reduction. Cannabis legalization was associated with a higher ASDI (Time: Status β-estimate = 0.03 (0.01, 0.05), P = 1.1 × 10 -3). Weighted panel regression interactive terms including cannabis significant (from β-estimate = 1418, (1080.6, 1755.4), P = 7.3 × 10 -15). Robust generalized linear models utilizing inverse probability weighting interactive terms including cannabis appear (from β-estimate = 78.88, (64.38, 93.38), P = 1.1 × 10 -8). Marginal structural models with machine-aided SuperLearning association of ASDI with high v. low cannabis exposure R.R. = 1.32 (1.28, 1.36). Model e-values mostly \u3e 1.5. Conclusions: ASDI is associated with cannabis use, frequency, intensity and legalization in a spatiotemporally significant manner, robust to socioeconomicodemographic adjustment and fulfilled causal criteria, consistent with multiple biological mechanisms and similar reports from Hawaii, Colorado, Canada and Australia. Not only are these results of concern in themselves, but they further imply that our list of the congenital teratology of cannabis is as yet incomplete, and highlight in particular cardiovascular toxicology of prenatal cannabinoid and drug exposure