No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change

In a prior study, I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made between individual nations, economic sectors, labor, or capital investments. At the model core is an observationally supported hypothesis that the global economy's current rate of primary energy consumption is tied through a constant to a very general representation of its historically accumulated wealth. Here, this growth model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of globally well-mixed atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While very simple, the coupled model provides faithful multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2. Extending the model to the future, the model suggests that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. For one, global CO2 emission rates cannot be decoupled from wealth through efficiency gains. For another, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming can be expected to act as an inflationary drag on the real growth of global wealth. For atmospheric CO2 concentrations to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv, model forecasts suggest that there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and nearly immediate reductions in global civilization wealth. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse

Microminiature thermocouple monitors own installation

Microminiature thermocouple makes precision gas sidewall temperature readings inside large thrust chambers. It is installed by a technique whereby the sensor monitors its own installation to insure against thermal damage to the thermocouple and ensure minimum disturbance to chamber surfaces

Thermoacoustic refrigeration

A new refrigerator which uses resonant high amplitude sound in inert gases to pump heat is described and demonstrated. The phasing of the thermoacoustic cycle is provided by thermal conduction. This 'natural' phasing allows the entire refrigerator to operate with only one moving part (the loudspeaker diaphragm). The thermoacoustic refrigerator has no sliding seals, requires no lubrication, uses only low-tolerance machine parts, and contains no expensive components. Because the compressor moving mass is typically small and the oscillation frequency is high, the small amount of vibration is very easily isolated. This low vibration and lack of sliding seals makes thermoacoustic refrigeration an excellent candidate for food refrigeration and commercial/residential air conditioning applications. The design, fabrication, and performance of the first practical, autonomous thermoacoustic refrigerator, which will be flown on the Space Shuttle (STS-42), are described, and designs for terrestrial applications are presented

Invalid Forensic Science Testimony and Wrongful Convictions

This is the first study to explore the forensic science testimony by prosecution experts in the trials of innocent persons, all convicted of serious crimes, who were later exonerated by post-conviction DNA testing. Trial transcripts were sought for all 156 exonerees identified as having trial testimony by forensic analysts, of which 137 were located and reviewed. These trials most commonly included testimony concerning serological analysis and microscopic hair comparison, but some included bite mark, shoe print, soil, fiber, and fingerprint comparisons, and several included DNA testing. This study found that in the bulk of these trials of innocent defendants - 82 cases or 60% - forensic analysts called by the prosecution provided invalid testimony at trial - that is, testimony with conclusions misstating empirical data or wholly unsupported by empirical data. This was not the testimony of a mere handful of analysts: this set of trials included invalid testimony by 72 forensic analysts called by the prosecution and employed by 52 laboratories, practices, or hospitals from 25 states. Unfortunately, the adversarial process largely failed to police this invalid testimony. Defense counsel rarely cross-examined analysts concerning invalid testimony and rarely obtained experts of their own. In the few cases in which invalid forensic science was challenged, judges seldom provided relief. This evidence supports efforts to create scientific oversight mechanisms for reviewing forensic testimony and to develop clear scientific standards for written reports and testimony. The scientific community can through an official government entity promulgate standards to ensure the valid presentation of forensic science in criminal cases and thus the integrity and fairness of the criminal process

Changes in fish populations in the Lower Canyons of the Rio Grande

The Lower Canyons of the Rio Grande suffer from environmental degradation that has negatively impacted native fish populations and their distributions. Macrhybopsis aestivalis (speckled chub), Notropis jemezanus (Rio Grande shiner), Rhinichthys cataractae (longnose dace) and Cycleptus elongatus (blue sucker) populations appear to have suffered recent declines. Although diminished water quantity is likely an important factor in these declines, related changes in channel morphology precipitated by massive stands of Arundo donax (giant reed) and Tamarix sp. (salt cedar) may also be responsible. These invasive exotics have essentially channelized the river, disrupted normal sediment distribution and reduced shallow, low-velocity habitats. Much of the Lower Canyons of the Rio Grande are devoid of sandy sediment and most riffles are now composed of gravel and cobble.Integrative Biolog

Invalid Forensic Science Testimony and Wrongful Convictions

This is the first study to explore the forensic science testimony by prosecution experts in the trials of innocent persons, all convicted of serious crimes, who were later exonerated by post-conviction DNA testing. Trial transcripts were sought for all 156 exonerees identified as having trial testimony by forensic analysts, of which 137 were located and reviewed. These trials most commonly included testimony concerning serological analysis and microscopic hair comparison, but some included bite mark, shoe print, soil, fiber, and fingerprint comparisons, and several included DNA testing. This study found that in the bulk of these trials of innocent defendants - 82 cases or 60% - forensic analysts called by the prosecution provided invalid testimony at trial - that is, testimony with conclusions misstating empirical data or wholly unsupported by empirical data. This was not the testimony of a mere handful of analysts: this set of trials included invalid testimony by 72 forensic analysts called by the prosecution and employed by 52 laboratories, practices, or hospitals from 25 states. Unfortunately, the adversarial process largely failed to police this invalid testimony. Defense counsel rarely cross-examined analysts concerning invalid testimony and rarely obtained experts of their own. In the few cases in which invalid forensic science was challenged, judges seldom provided relief. This evidence supports efforts to create scientific oversight mechanisms for reviewing forensic testimony and to develop clear scientific standards for written reports and testimony. The scientific community can through an official government entity promulgate standards to ensure the valid presentation of forensic science in criminal cases and thus the integrity and fairness of the criminal process