A radiomics-based decision support tool improves lung cancer diagnosis in combination with the Herder score in large lung nodules

Background: Large lung nodules (≥15 mm) have the highest risk of malignancy, and may exhibit important differences in phenotypic or clinical characteristics to their smaller counterparts. Existing risk models do not stratify large nodules well. We aimed to develop and validate an integrated segmentation and classification pipeline, incorporating deep-learning and traditional radiomics, to classify large lung nodules according to cancer risk. Methods: 502 patients from five U.K. centres were recruited to the large-nodule arm of the retrospective LIBRA study between July 2020 and April 2022. 838 CT scans were used for model development, split into training and test sets (70% and 30% respectively). An nnUNet model was trained to automate lung nodule segmentation. A radiomics signature was developed to classify nodules according to malignancy risk. Performance of the radiomics model, termed the large-nodule radiomics predictive vector (LN-RPV), was compared to three radiologists and the Brock and Herder scores. Findings: 499 patients had technically evaluable scans (mean age 69 ± 11, 257 men, 242 women). In the test set of 252 scans, the nnUNet achieved a DICE score of 0.86, and the LN-RPV achieved an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) for malignancy classification. Performance was higher than the median radiologist (AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.70–0.81], DeLong p = 0.03). LN-RPV was robust to auto-segmentation (ICC 0.94). For baseline solid nodules in the test set (117 patients), LN-RPV had an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) compared to 0.67 (95% CI 0.55–0.76, DeLong p = 0.002) for the Brock score and 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.90, DeLong p = 0.4) for the Herder score. In the international external test set (n = 151), LN-RPV maintained an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.63–0.85). 18 out of 22 (82%) malignant nodules in the Herder 10–70% category in the test set were identified as high risk by the decision-support tool, and may have been referred for earlier intervention. Interpretation: The model accurately segments and classifies large lung nodules, and may improve upon existing clinical models. Funding This project represents independent research funded by: 1) Royal Marsden Partners Cancer Alliance, 2) the Royal Marsden Cancer Charity, 3) the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research, London, 4) the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College London, 5) Cancer Research UK (C309/A31316)

Increasing prevalence of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in all ethnic groups in Mauritius

Aims To describe the prevalence of different stages of glucose intolerance in a population from Mauritius followed over 11 years. Methods Population-based surveys were undertaken in the multiethnic nation of Mauritius in 1987, 1992 and 1998, with 5083, 6616, and 6291 participants, respectively. Questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were included. Subjects aged between 25 and 75 years with classifiable data were identified; 4991, 6463 and 5392 from 1987, 1992 and 1998, respectively. Glucose tolerance was classified according to WHO 1999 criteria. Results The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes increased significantly during the period studied, from 12.8% in 1987, to 15.2% in 1992, and 17.9% in 1998. The increasing prevalence was seen in both men and women, and in all age groups. The prevalence of known diabetes (KDM) increased progressively, and more markedly than the increase in newly diagnosed diabetes (NDM). A diagnosis of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) was more prevalent amongst women whereas impaired fasting glucose (IFG) was more common amongst men. The prevalences of IGT and IFG did not change markedly during the period. The prevalence of diabetes and IGT was similar for participants of Indian, Creole and Chinese background in each survey, and the increasing prevalence of diabetes was seen in all ethnic groups. Conclusion In this study, we report an increasing prevalence of diabetes over an 11-year period in Mauritius. This increase was seen in both sexes, and in all age and ethnic groups, and was mainly due to an increase in the numbers of those with known diabetes

High incidence of type 2 diabetes and increasing conversion rates from impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance to diabetes in Mauritius

Objective.  To describe the incidence of different stages of glucose intolerance in a population from Mauritius followed over 11 years. Research design, methods and subjects.  Population-based surveys were undertaken in the multi-ethnic nation of Mauritius in 1987, 1992 and 1998 with 5083, 6616 and 6291 participants, respectively. Questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were included. Three cohorts aged between 25 and 79 years with classifiable glucose tolerance data were identified; 3680 between 1987 and 1992, 4178 between 1992 and 1998, and 2631 between 1987 and 1998. Glucose tolerance was classified according to WHO 1999 criteria. Results.  The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes was higher between 1992 and 1998 than between 1987 and 1992. In men, the incidence was similar between cohorts (24.5 and 25.4 per 1000 person-years) whereas the incidence increased in women (23.3 and 16.4 per 1000 person-years). The incidence of diabetes peaked in the 45–54 year age group and then plateaud or fell. The incidences of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) decreased in both men and women. Of normoglycaemic subjects at baseline, more women than men developed IGT and more men than women developed IFG. Of those labelled as IFG in 1987, 38% developed diabetes after 11 years. The corresponding figure for IGT was 46%. Conclusions.  In this study, we report changes in incidence rates of glucose intolerance over a 11-year period. In particular, differences between men and women were observed. The increased incidence of IGT in women compared with men, and increased incidence of IFG in men compared with women was consistent with, and explains the sex biases seen in the prevalences of these states