STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOR: WHAT CAN UTILITY FUNCTIONS TELL US?

The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine the extent of heterogeneity in the global shape of the utility function of decision makers and test whether its shape predicts strategic risk management behavior. We assess the utility functions and relate them to strategic decisions for portfolio managers (N = 104) and hog farmers (N = 239). The research design allows us to examine the robustness of our results and the extent to which the results can be generalized. Furthermore, we assess the shape of the utility functions for these decision makers applying two different methods. This allows us to further test the robustness of our empirical results. If there exists a relationship between the shape of the utility function and strategic decisions, both methods should yield the same result. The empirical results indicate that the global shape of the utility function differs across decision makers (fully concave or convex versus S-shaped), and that the global shape predicts strategic decisions (e.g., asset allocation strategy in the case of portfolio managers; type of production process employed in the case of hog farmers). These findings support the notion that the often criticized concept of utility is a useful concept when studying actual behavior, and highlight the importance of considering decision-maker behavior over a wide outcome range when examining strategic behavior.Risk and Uncertainty,

Unobserved Heterogeneity: Evidence and Implications for SMEs' Hedging Behavior

Financial research indicates that several firm characteristics are related to the use of derivatives. Less attention has been paid to the role of the characteristics of managers, which are particularly important when studying derivative usage of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). In this paper we focus on the influence of manager's level of education, the manager's decision-making unit, and the fundamental determinants of risk management - managerial risk attitude and managerial risk perception - on SMEs' commodity derivative usage. In empirical studies to date, the heterogeneity of derivative users has been neglected. We propose a generalized mixture regression model that estimates the relationship between commodity derivative usage and a set of explanatory variables across segments of an industry. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveals that segments of the industry have different determinants of derivative use. Moreover, the heterogeneity at the segment level appears to mask significant effects at the aggregate level, most notably the effects of risk attitude and risk perception.Marketing,

Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in a prospect theory context appears to call for investigation of both the probability weighting and utility functions. Our findings also suggest that strategies for loss-averse traders who consolidate gains and avoid using gains in risk-seeking market activities are effective.loss aversion, house-money effect, futures, options, Agricultural Finance,

Probability Distortion and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

We analyze how the introduction of probability distortion and loss aversion in the standard hedging problem changes the optimal hedge ratio. Based on simulated cash and futures prices for soybeans, our results indicate that the optimal hedge changes considerably when probability distortion is considered. However, the impact of loss aversion on hedging decisions appears to be small, and it diminishes as loss aversion increases. Our findings suggest that probability distortion is a major driving force in hedging decisions, while loss aversion plays just a marginal role.Marketing,

Risk Attitude & the Structure of Decision Making: Evidence from the Hog Industry

We investigate the importance of an appropriate representation of behavior, risk attitude, and related characteristics for owner-managers making marketing decisions. We assess whether managerial/firm characteristics directly affect the decisions or if their influence occurs indirectly through impacts on risk aversion. The findings, which support an indirect effect, indicate that failure to represent the relationship between risk aversion, other characteristics, and behavior appropriately can mask the effect of risk aversion. A more complete understanding of the structure of decision making may assist economists and policymakers in designing and targeting mechanisms to transfer risk.behavior, contract, hogs, marketing, risk attitude, Agribusiness, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, Q13,

FUTURES MARKET DEPTH: REVEALED VS. PERCEIVED PRICE ORDER IMBALANCES

In this paper we study futures market depth by examining the price path due to order imbalances thereby allowing us to directly gain insight in the execution costs due to a lack of market depth We propose a two dimensional market depth measure in which the price path due to order imbalances is described by an S-shape function. The proposed market depth measure is applied to transaction specific futures data from Euronext. Subsequently, we examine CBOT traders' perceptions about the price path due to order imbalances and examine the characteristics that are associated with a particular perception. The proposed market depth measure gives guidelines for improving market depth, and can be used to compare competitive futures contracts. It appears that the actual price path due to order imbalances does not match the perceived price path. Traders have various perceptions about the price path due to order imbalances. Dominant perceptions were, S-shape, linear, exponential or zigzag price paths. The differences in traders' perceptions can be traced back to different traders' characteristics among others type of primary futures contract traded, importance of information sources and trading strategy (herd vs. non-herd behavior). The observed disconnect between perceptions and revealed price path due to order imbalances have great implications for market participants who try to minimize execution costs and for the futures exchange management that tries to increase the market depth.Marketing,

Do Transaction Costs and Risk Preferences Influence Marketing Arrangements in the Illinois Hog Industry?

Risk reduction and transaction costs are often used to explain contracting in the U.S. hog industry with little empirical support. Using a unified conceptual framework that draws from risk behavior and transaction cost theories, in combination with unique survey and accounting data, we demonstrate that risk preferences and asset specificity impact Illinois producers’ use of contracts and spot markets. In particular, producers’ investments in specific hog genetics and human capital are related to selection of long-term marketing contracts over spot markets. Producers who perceive greater levels of price risk and/or are more averse are more (less) likely to use contracts (spot markets).asset specificity, contracts, hogs, risk attitude, risk behavior, risk perception, transaction costs economics, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior: Comparing & Evaluating Grouping Methods

Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical findings show that the economic relationships are more consistent with theory within the groups identified by the mixture model, and suggest that researchers interested in identifying segments of the population in which participants behave in a similar manner may consider using of mixture model in the presence of heterogeneity in financial behavior.economic behavior, heterogeneity, hedging, methods, Risk and Uncertainty, A10, B40, C1, D0, G0, L2, Q13,

Do Transaction Costs and Risk Preferences Influence Marketing Arrangements in the Illinois Hog Industry?

Studies of hog industry structure often invoke risk reduction and transaction costs explanations for empirical observations but fail to directly examine the core concepts of risk behavior and transaction costs theories. Using a more unified conceptual framework and unique survey and accounting data, this study demonstrates that that risk preferences and asset specificity impact Illinois producers’ use of contracts and spot markets as suggested by theory. Factor analytic methods limit measurement error for indirectly observable risk and transaction costs variables employed in logit regressions. In particular, related investments in specific hog genetics and specific human capital regarding the production process increase the probability of selecting long-tem contracts over spot markets. Producers who perceive greater levels of price risk and/or are more averse to it appear more (less) likely to use long-term contracts (spot markets), and hence, to make such investments.risk behavior, transaction costs economics, risk attitude and risk perception, asset specificity, contracts, hogs, Agricultural Finance,

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity futures and one aggregate index from 1994-2003, we find that collateralized and levered futures strategies perform similarly in an ex-post context. Significant differences between the approaches emerge however when constraints on investment behavior exist. Further, levered futures do not result in a prohibitive number of margin calls. The investment performances of the collateralized and the levered strategies vary little across different rebalancing intervals, and frequent portfolio rebalancing does not necessarily result in superior performance.Marketing,