Avaliação económica de centrais eólicas e fotovoltaicas em Portugal continental: análise de sensibilidade

Tese de mestrado em Engenharia da Energia e do Ambiente, apresentada à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2013As Fontes de Energia Renovável (FER) podem ajudar a minorar as emissões das indústrias de energia, reduzindo assim o custo da electricidade e a dependência de combustíveis fósseis importados. Foram traçadas metas nacionais para FER ao incorporar programas de incentivo, nomeadamente a remuneração através de tarifas bonificadas, de forma a impulsionar o investimento nestas tecnologias. Mesmo com programas de incentivo, o investimento num projecto de FER pode não ter a rentabilidade exigida pelos investidores. É de extrema importância a obtenção precisa de resultados de avaliação económica de centrais renováveis para garantir futuros investimentos, proporcionando um acréscimo de produção de energia limpa e visando um futuro mais sustentável. Neste trabalho, pretende-se levar a cabo os estudos de avaliação económica de grandes centrais eólicas e fotovoltaicas, com características técnicas e económico-financeiras típicas, utilizando as regras de remuneração impostas pela legislação portuguesa, numa perspectiva de demonstrar a adequação destas regras nos panoramas económico-financeiros presentes nos anos entre 2000 e 2020. Através da ferramenta de cálculo desenvolvida, são aqui estudadas futuras decisões políticas de redução da tarifa bonificada e o seu efeito na viabilidade económica de projectos existentes. Efectua-se o estudo de avaliação económica de futuros projectos, numa óptica de construção de cenários de evolução das FER em Portugal a médio/longo prazo. É igualmente obtido um mapeamento de custos normalizado de energia (LCOE) de centrais típicas fotovoltaicas, eólicas onshore e offshore (fixas e flutuantes) para Portugal Continental, com o objectivo de comparação e hierarquização dos seus custos nos melhores locais para as suas instalações. Os resultados obtidos permitem clarificar o peso que cada legislação em vigor tem nos resultados económicos de centrais eólicas e fotovoltaicas no território português. Dão também a noção do comportamento económico destas centrais ao longo dos anos, permitindo a construção de cenários de evolução da viabilidade económica a médio/longo prazo.The Renewable Energy Sources (RES) may help to reduce emissions from energy industries, contributing to decrease the costs of electricity and dependence on imported fossil fuels. RES’s national goals were outlined to incorporate incentive programs, including the remuneration through feed-in tariffs in order to boost investment in these technologies. Even with incentive programs, the investments in RES projects may not have the return required by the stakeholders. It is extremely important to obtain accurate results of economic evaluation to secure future investments, providing an increased production of clean energy and seeking a more sustainable future. In this work, studies of economic evaluation of large wind and photovoltaic farms are carried out, with typical technical, economic and financial characteristics, using the rules imposed by the Portuguese laws, intending to demonstrate the suitability of these rules in the economic and financial panoramas presents in years between 2000 and 2020. Through the developed calculation tool, it is studied future political decisions to reduce the feed-in tariffs and its effects on the economic viability of existing projects. It is carried out the economic evaluation studies for future projects, in line to build scenarios of RES in Portugal in the medium/long term. It is also obtained a mapping of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for typical photovoltaic, wind onshore and wind offshore (fixed and floating) farms in Portugal, with the purpose of comparison and ranking of their costs in their best locations. The results obtained allow clarifying the weight that each current law has on the economical performances of wind and photovoltaic farms in the Portuguese territory. They also give a notion of the economical behaviour of these power plants over the years, allowing the construction of evolution scenarios of the economic viability in a medium/long term

Methodology to study the life cycle cost of floating offshore wind farms

The main objective of this paper is to determine a theoretical methodology process to study the life cycle cost of floating offshore wind farms. The principal purpose is adapting the LCC (Life-Cycle Cost Calculation) from several authors to the offshore wind energy world, providing a new method which will be called LCSFOWF. In this sense, several general steps will be defined: life cycle definition, process breakdown structure, viability study and sensitivity study. Moreover, technical and economic issues and their relations will be considered. On the other hand, six life cycle phases needed to install a floating offshore wind farm will be defined: conception and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, exploitation and dismantling. They will be useful to define the majority of the steps in the process. This methodology could be considered to calculate the real cost of constructing floating offshore wind farms

Methodology to design an economic and strategic offshore wind energy Roadmap in Portugal

The main objective of this paper is to establish a roadmap for offshore wind energy in Portugal. It will determine the best sea areas to install fixed and floating offshore wind farms in this region, using spatial analysis of four economic indexes: Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), Discounted Pay-Back Period (DPBP) and Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE). Several economic parameters will be considered (Portuguese offshore tariff, investment and O&M costs, credit values, etc.).Three different discount rates were used into the sensitivity analysis. Several types of physical restrictions will be taking into account: submarine electrical cables, bathymetry, seabed geology, environmental conditions, protected areas in terms of heritage, navigation areas, seismic fault lines, etc. Moreover, location settings as proximity to shipyards or ports will be considered to complement the strategy. All of them will define the resulting area to install offshore wind farms along Portuguese coast. Spatial operations, considering economic, physical and strategic issues, have been carried out using Model Builder of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) software. Results indicate the Portuguese areas economically suitable for installing offshore wind farms

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of wave energy using GIS based analysis: the case study of Portugal

The main objective of this paper is to establish an economic modelling of wave energy through a Geographical Information System (GIS). Furthermore, this method has been tested for the particular case of the Portuguese coast. It determines the best sea areas to install wave energy converters in this region, using spatial analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Several economic parameters, as capital or O&M costs, have been considered. In addition, a sensitivity analysis has been performed by varying the discount rate in three different scenarios. Several types of physical restrictions have been taken into account: bathymetry, submarine electrical cables, seabed geology, environmental conditions, protected areas in terms of heritage, navigation areas, seismic fault lines, etc. Spatial operations have been carried out to complete the procedure, using Model Builder of GIS software. Results indicate the most suitable areas in economic terms in Portugal to install wave energy devices

O projeto OffhorePlan : planeamento da instalação de energias renováveis offshore em Portugal

RESUMO: O projeto OffshorePlan - Planeamento da instalação de energias renováveis offshore em Portugal – financiado pelo programa POSEUR (Programa Operacional Sustentabilidade e Eficiência no Uso de Recursos) do Portugal 2020 – surgiu na sequência da identificação de um conjunto de constrangimentos associados à implementação e disseminação das tecnologias de aproveitamento de energia para a produção de eletricidade em ambiente marinho. As energias renováveis de exploração marinha apresentam um grande potencial de exploração em Portugal, por um lado devido à situação geográfica do país, com a sua área extensa de costa e uma das maiores zonas económicas exclusivas (ZEE) – e por outro, pelos indicadores de existência de elevado recurso energético, cujo estudo tem vindo a ser efetuado nos últimos anos. Não obstante esses estudos persistem várias barreiras a ultrapassar para a disseminação das tecnologias de energias renováveis com maior aplicabilidade em Portugal – eólica offshore e ondas – as quais se prendem, essencialmente, com: i) mapeamento do recurso energético com precisão e sua validação experimental; ii) escassez de serviços e meios para ações de instalação e manutenção destes sistemas; iii) capacidade de receção da rede elétrica; e iv) impacto socioeconómico, entre outras.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio