FDI and Innovation as Drivers of Export Behaviour: Firm-level Evidence from East Asia

This paper examines the links between ownership, innovation and exporting in electronics firms in three late industrializing East Asian countries (China, Thailand and the Philippines) drawing on recent developments in applied international trade and innovation and learning. Technology-based approaches to trade offer a plausible explanation for firm-level exporting behavior. The econometric results (using probit) confirm the importance of foreign ownership and innovation in increasing the probability of exporting in electronics. Higher levels of skills, managers' education and capital also matter in China as well as accumulated experience in Thailand. Furthermore, a technology index composed of technical functions performed by firms emerges as a more robust indicator of innovation than the R&D to sales ratio. Accordingly, technological effort in electronics in these countries mostly focuses on assimilating and using imported technologies rather than formal R&D by specialized engineers.foreign direct investment, innovation, technological capabilities, R&D, firm-level exports, electronics, East Asia, China, Thailand and the Philippines

Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian FTA

As East Asia becomes increasingly integrated through market-driven trade and FDI activities, free trade agreements (FTAs) are proliferating. Consolidation of multiple and overlapping FTAs into a single East Asian FTA can help mitigate the harmful noodle bowl effects of different or competing tariffs, standards, and rules. A region-wide FTA will also encourage participation of low-income countries and reduce trade-related business costs, particularly for small and medium enterprises. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model examines the economic impact of various types of FTAs in East Asia (among ASEAN+1's, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6) finding that consolidation at the ASEAN+6 level would yield the largest gains to East Asia among plausible regional trade arrangements.Free Trade Agreement; ASEAN; multilateralism

Making the Millennium Challenge Corporation compact work for Sri Lanka

For more about the East-West Center, see http://www.eastwestcenter.org/Ganeshan Wignaraja, executive Director of the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies, explains that "At least half of Sri Lanka's borrowing in 2018 was from private capital markets, and nearly a third came from China.

Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects

Central Asia has emerged as one of the worlds fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects considers the regions economic prospects to 2015. It charts recent economic performance, highlighting the economic revival. It also synthesizes recent forecasts and constructs scenarios for future economic variables against a constant global background. Projections include, among others, gross domestic product (GDP), manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita and poverty. A special theme chapter develops a manufacturing competitiveness index to compare the CARs with other transition economies and explores the impact of economic reform and supply-side factors (e.g. foreign investment and human capital) on industrial performancecentral Asia, future economic variables, gross domestic product, manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita, poverty, manufacturing competitiveness index

Central Asia after Fifteen Years of Transition: Growth, Regional Cooperation, and Policy Choices

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs, which have yet to be adequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics, and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new 'Type III' set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival. It goes on to examine medium-term prospects and policy needs for the CARs.growth; economic reform; regional cooperation; industrial competitiveness; Central Asia; transitional economies

Four stylised facts about Covid-19 impacts in Sri Lanka

The Covid-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc for economies worldwide, and smaller countries have been hit particularly badly. Sri Lanka’s economy was already under stress but was slowly moving in the right direction when the combined effects of the pandemic on public health and the economy has dealt a severe blow. Ganeshan Wignaraja suggests possible ways to recover with some surety amidst the temperamental threat of the Covid-19 virus

Central Asia’s Transition After Fifteen Years : Growth and Policy Choices

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs which have been inadequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new Type III set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival in the CARs. It goes on to examine medium-term prospects and policy needs for the CARs.Growth, economic reform, regional cooperation, industrial competitiveness, central Asia, transitional economies

Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration

The Asian countries are once again focused on options for large, comprehensive regional integration schemes. In this paper we explore the implications of such broad-based regional trade initiatives in Asia, highlighting the bridging of the East and South Asian economies. We place emphasis on the alternative prospects for insider and outsider countries. We work with a global general equilibrium model of the world economy, benchmarked to a projected 2017 sets of trade and production patterns. We also work with gravity-model based estimates of trade costs linked to infrastructure, and of barriers to trade in services. Taking these estimates, along with tariffs, into our CGE model, we examine regionally narrow and broad agreements, all centered on extending the reach of ASEAN to include free trade agreements with combinations of the northeast Asian economies (PRC, Japan, Korea) and also the South Asian economies. We focus on a stylized FTA that includes goods, services, and some aspects of trade cost reduction through trade facilitation and related infrastructure improvements. What matters most for East Asia is that China, Japan, and Korea be brought into any scheme for deeper regional integration. This matter alone drives most of the income and trade effects in the East Asia region across all of our scenarios. The inclusion of the South Asian economies in a broader regional agreement sees gains for the East Asian and South Asian economies. Most of the East Asian gains follow directly from Indian participation. The other South Asian players thus stand to benefit if India looks East and they are a part of the program, and to lose if they are not. Interestingly, we find that with the widest of agreements, the insiders benefit substantively in terms of trade and income while the aggregate impact on outside countries is negligible. Broadly speaking, a pan-Asian regional agreement would appear to cover enough countries, with a great enough diversity in production and incomes, to actually allow for regional gains without substantive third-country losses. However, realizing such potential requires overcoming a proven regional tendency to circumscribe trade concessions with rules of origin, NTBs, and exclusion lists. The more likely outcome, a spider web of bilateral agreements, carries with it the prospect of significant outsider costs (i.e. losses) both within and outside the region.regionalism, Asia FTAs, ASEAN, preferential trade, gravity model of services trade, trade costs and infrastructure

FTAs and Philippine Business: Evidence from Transport, Food, and Electronics Firms

Within East Asia, the outward-oriented Philippine economy is a latecomer to using free trade agreements (FTAs) as a trade policy instrument and has relied heavily on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for regional liberalization. While negotiating FTAs has consumed scarce time and other resources, limited attention has been hitherto given to evaluating the impact of FTAs-particularly the 15-year-old ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) agreement-on business activity in the Philippines. Using a survey of 155 manufactured goods exporters from three sectors (transport equipment, processed foods, and electronics), this study deals with three questions: (i) Do firms use AFTA and why?; (ii) What impedes firms from using AFTA and other FTAs?; and (iii) What can be done to improve FTA use at firm level in the future? The study finds that utilization of AFTA is higher than expected from existing studies and is set to double in the future. Econometric analysis suggests that firm age, domestic ownership, awareness of FTAs, and membership in the transport sector increase the probability of using AFTA. Surprisingly, among nonusers, a lack of information is the biggest barrier to FTA use. Other impediments to use include the availability of export processing zone incentive schemes, low most-favored-nation rates (particularly in electronics), delays in origin administration, rent-seeking behavior, and nontariff measures in partner country markets. Interestingly, the majority of firms do not think that multiple rules of origin in overlapping Asian FTAs add significantly to business costs. However, there is room for improvement in the system of AFTA rules of origin (e.g., lower value content and introduction of self-certification mechanisms). The examination of institutional support reveals an excess demand for a range of support services (e.g., information, technology-based, and small or medium enterprise extension services) that will enable firms to use FTAs more effectively in the future. The paper concludes by making the case for better mainstreaming of FTAs into Philippine national trade policy and for improving support services to firms.philippines fta impact; philippines fta business; philippines economy ftas

Central Asia’s Transition After Fifteen Years: Growth and Policy Choices

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs which have been inadequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new Type III set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival in the CARs. It goes on to examine medium-term prospects and policy needs for the CARs.growth, economic reform, regional cooperation, industrial competitiveness, Central Asia, transitional economies