A macroeconomic view of Eurodollar market expansion after 1973

This paper analyzes the Eurodollar market, investigating the reasons for its expansion after 1973, and the consequences for monetary policy. In the first part of the paper, the issue of credit and money creation by offshore banks is considered. The nature of the liquidity creation process is shown to be dependent on the specific definitions of money and balance of payments position that are adopted by the national authorities. The concepts of money (in domestic and foreign currencies)held by residents and of basic balance are specified, and it is demonstrated that the domestic economy of a given country is not directly affected by the external use of its currency between non-residents. The development of these external transactions, however, proves to be directly dependent on the domestic policies followed by the monetary authorities of that country. The second part of the paper is devoted to an empirical analysis of the development of the Eurodollar market during the period from 1974 to 1980. Estimates of a partial adjustment model show that credit expansion in the Eurodollar market during this period was largely "demand determined," owing to the monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve. The econometric results stress the key role of international trade in the development of the Eurodollar activities during these years. Implications of these results for the regulation of Euromarkets are briefly considered in the conclusion

Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen

The question whether the European Monetary System has brought about a reduction in the variability of its members' exchange rates is not a trivial issue since central rates are adjustable and bilateral exchange rates are allowed to move freely within fairly large margins. In this paper I have found clear evidence after 1979 of a reduction in nominal exchange rate variability but only mixed results when the same analysis is applied to real exchange rates. Several factors might account for these results. An attempt is made to assess the specific influence of changes in monetary and exchange rate policies. The evidence derived from an application of the principal component analysis to interest rates and the first results provided by an ad-hoc empirical model on the reaction functions of some EMS central banks point to the prominent role played after 1979 by more convergence in monetary policies and more forceful interventions on the foreign exchange markets

La place du contrôle des mouvements de capitaux dans la politique économique française et les perspectives liées à son allégement

This paper reviews the central features of France’s capital controls in the 70's and 80's and strives to assess their ability, in the context of various exchange rate mechanisms, to regulate capital flows and to stabilize the exchange rate while allowing France to preserve a measure of economic and monetary independence, in particular within the European Monetary Syste

Diversification in Africa in a macroeconomic perspective

This paper contrasts the poor performance of African economies over the past 30 years with the remarkable development of East Asian newly industrialized countries. It provides evidence that the lack of diversification, stemming from the adoption of inward-looking strategies, interventionist policies, and the absence of a competitive environment, is at the root of the lagging development of African countries. Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to foster capital and labor mobility, as well as trade liberalization are a prerequisite to enhance the economic growth potential of African countries

Diversification in Africa in a macroeconomic perspective

This paper contrasts the poor performance of African economies over the past 30 years with the remarkable development of East Asian newly industrialized countries. It provides evidence that the lack of diversification, stemming from the adoption of inward-looking strategies, interventionist policies, and the absence of a competitive environment, is at the root of the lagging development of African countries. Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to foster capital and labor mobility, as well as trade liberalization are a prerequisite to enhance the economic growth potential of African countries

Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen

The question whether the European Monetary System has brought about a reduction in the variability of its members' exchange rates is not a trivial issue since central rates are adjustable and bilateral exchange rates are allowed to move freely within fairly large margins. In this paper I have found clear evidence after 1979 of a reduction in nominal exchange rate variability but only mixed results when the same analysis is applied to real exchange rates. Several factors might account for these results. An attempt is made to assess the specific influence of changes in monetary and exchange rate policies. The evidence derived from an application of the principal component analysis to interest rates and the first results provided by an ad-hoc empirical model on the reaction functions of some EMS central banks point to the prominent role played after 1979 by more convergence in monetary policies and more forceful interventions on the foreign exchange markets

Bilateral and multilateral exchange rate and purchasing power parity indexes: the aggregation problem

Following the high variability of floating exchange rates after the collapse of the Bretton-Wood System, policymakers have increasingly relied on weighted exchange rate indexes (nominal effective exchange rate index) or indexes of competitiveness (real effective exchange rate or purchasing-power-parity index)in order to assess the need for and the magnitude of exchange rate adjustments.However, these indexes are plagued by many methodological problems that impinge on their reliability. This paper is concerned only with one of the main limitations of these indexes, namely, the ad-hoc character of the determination of the weighting system used in their construction. To solve this problem, a new kind of index is proposed, which is derived from a complete system of export demand functions endowed with aggregative properties. This new index is compared with the effective exchange rate index (MERM) of the International Monetary Fund

A synthetic indicator for the currencies of the G5 countries

This paper proposes a synthetic divergence indicator retracing the influence of domestic and external imbalances for each G5 country on its currency position. This index happens to be equal to the weighted sum of domestic demand pressures and current account disequilibrium, with the weights stemming from a suitable combination of price and income elasticities estimated from a set of international trade equations. Under some restrictive assumptions, it is shown that the variations of this indicator are tantamount to the deviations of the real effective exchange rate from its long term equilibrium path. In order to determine the divergence indicator for the period 1974/1987, an empirical attempt has been carried out that resorts to a matrix of international trade encompassing the nine main industrial countries and retains a real effective exchange rate concept endowed with aggregative properties that replicates closely the effective exchange rates of the IMF MERM model at least for the major currencies. A perusal of the empirical results for the years 1985/1987 suggests that the G5 European currencies are presently close to their equilibrium position, whereas the overvaluation of the US dollar and undervaluation of the yen are still substantial

Le savoir de l'Occident : sur les représentations du "Coup d'Abidjan", le 24 décembre 1999

Comment nommer l’événement ? Comment « mettre en concepts » les faits politiques, à la fois fugaces et mal délimités, hypothétiques et pourtant irréductibles dans leur singularité à l’analyse, multipliés dans leurs gloses et représentations, pris dès leur nomination – et pire dès leur inscription dans un dense réseau de discours déjà hiérarchisés et constitués ? A l’occasion du « Noël ivoirien » récent, on se propose d’expliciter « ce qu’analyser veut dire », dans un champ de savoir et de pou..

De la guerre nomade : sept approches du conflit autour de la Côte d’Ivoire

Déconstruire les descriptions « réalistes » d'une guerre étatique, pour le cas du conflit ouest-africain qui tourne entre quatre pays depuis 13 ans, c'est s'intéresser à ses espaces transfrontaliers, aux jeux de l'ethnicité et du foncier, à la sociologie mouvante des groupes guerriers. Forger le concept de « guerre nomade », à l'inverse, c'est faire le choix de suivre des mécanismes relativement autonomes de propagation des conflits, d'insister sur les transformations des « sociétés en guerre », redécouvrir d'autres instances autochtones du politique comme les communautés, retrouver la dynamique du « continuum de la violence » avant le conflit et les permanentes mutations politiques durant la guerre.C'est donc, dans ce terrible laboratoire politologique, retrouver du sens aux actions des groupes nomades, comme mode de vie, gestion des corps et de la violence ; et dans ces systèmes de guerres interminables, malgré tout, des conceptions autres du politique bonnes à penser, pour la guerre comme pour la paix, mais aussi pour repartir de cet ailleurs si proche pour questionner nos propres devenirs.In the case of the West African conflict, which four states have been enduring for thirteen years, deconstructing the « realist » descriptions of a State war means taking interest in its trans-border spaces, in the ethnical and land ownership interplay, and in the changing sociology of war groups. On the contrary, moulding the concept of a "nomadic war" means following the relatively autonomous mechanisms of conflict spreading, insisting on the transformation of the "societies at war", rediscovering other autochthon political authorities such as communities, and recalling the pre-conflict "violence continuum" dynamic and the permanent political changes that occur during war. In this terrible politological laboratory, the author restores a meaning to the actions of nomadic groups considered as lifestyles, or body and violence management, and, in these never ending war systems, he restores a meaning to other conceptions of the « political »