Who Benefits from Reducing the Cost of Formality? Quantile Regression Discontinuity Analysis

This paper studies the effects of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. It uses the 1997 Brazilian SIMPLES program. We develop a simple theoretical model to show that SIMPLES has an impact only on a segment of the micro-firm population, for which the effect of formality on firm performance can be identified, and that can be analyzed along the single dimensional quantiles of the conditional firm revenues. To estimate the effect of formality, we use an econometric approach that compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We use an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity identification strategy. The empirical results corroborate the positive effect of formality on microfirms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs.Formality, Micro-firms, Quantile regression, Regression discontinuity

Instrumental variables quantile regression for panel data with measurement errors

This paper develops an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression in panel data with fixed effects. Asymptotic properties of the instrumental variables estimator are studied for large N and T when Na/T ! 0, for some a > 0. Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov type tests for general linear restrictions are developed. The estimator is applied to the problem of measurement errors in variables, which induces endogeneity and as a result bias in the model. We derive an approximation to the bias in the quantile regression fixed effects estimator in the presence of measurement error and show its connection to similar effects in standard least squares models. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample properties of the estimator in terms of bias and root mean squared error. Finally, the methods are applied to a model of firm investment. The results show interesting heterogeneity in the Tobin’s q and cash flow sensitivities of investment. In both cases, the sensitivities are monotonically increasing along the quantiles

Threshold quantile autoregressive models

We study in this article threshold quantile autoregressive processes. In particular we propose estimation and inference of the parameters in nonlinear quantile processes when the threshold parameter defining nonlinearities is known for each quantile, and also when the parameter vector is estimated consistently. We derive the asymptotic properties of the nonlinear threshold quantile autoregressive estimator. In addition, we develop hypothesis tests for detecting threshold nonlinearities in the quantile process when the threshold parameter vector is not identified under the null hypothesis. In this case we propose to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the composite test using a p-value transformation. This test contributes to the literature on nonlinearity tests by extending Hansen’s (Econometrica 64, 1996, pp.413-430) methodology for the conditional mean process to the entire quantile process. We apply the proposed methodology to model the dynamics of US unemployment growth after the Second World War. The results show evidence of important heterogeneity associated with unemployment, and strong asymmetric persistence on unemployment growth