Azimuthal Asymmetry of Direct Photons in High Energy Nuclear Collisions

We show that a sizeable azimuthal asymmetry, characterized by a coefficient v_2, is to be expected for direct photons produced in non-central high energy nuclear collisions. This signal is generated by photons radiated by jets interacting with the surrounding hot plasma. The anisotropy is out of phase by an angle $\pi/2$ with respect to that associated with the elliptic anisotropy of hadrons, leading to negative values of v_2. Such an asymmetry, if observed, could be a signature for the presence of a quark gluon plasma and would establish the importance of jet-plasma interactions as a source of electromagnetic radiation.Comment: New title. Final versio

Dilepton Production in Nucleon-Nucleon Reactions With and Without Hadronic Inelasticities

We calculate elementary proton-proton and neutron-proton bremsstrahlung and their contribution to the $e^+e^-$ invariant mass distribution. At 4.9 GeV, the proton-proton contribution is larger than neutron-proton, but it is small compared to recent data. We then make a first calculation of bremsstrahlung in nucleon-nucleon reactions with multi-hadron final states. Again at 4.9 GeV, the many-body bremsstrahlung is larger than simple nucleon-nucleon bremsstrahlung by more than an order of magnitude in the low-mass region. When the bremsstrahlung contributions are summed with Dalitz decay of the $\eta$, radiative decay of the $\Delta$ and from two-pion annihilation, the result matches recent high statistics proton-proton data from the Dilepton Spectrometer collaboration.Comment: 1+17 pages plus 11 PostScript figures uuencoded and appended, McGill/93-9, TPI-MINN-93/18-

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change

Q fever through consumption of unpasteurised milk and milk products – a risk profile and exposure assessment

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii which is endemic in cattle, sheep and goats in much of the world, including the United Kingdom (UK). There is some epidemiological evidence that a small proportion of cases in the developed world may arise from consumption of unpasteurised milk with less evidence for milk products such as cheese. Long maturation at low pH may give some inactivation in hard cheese, and viable C. burnetii are rarely detected in unpasteurised cheese compared to unpasteurised milk. Simulations presented here predict that the probability of exposure per person to one or more C. burnetii through the daily cumulative consumption of raw milk in the UK is 04203. For those positive exposures, the average level of exposure predicted is high at 1266 guinea pig intraperitoneal infectious dose 50% units (GP_IP_ID50) per person per day. However, in the absence of human dose–response data, the case is made that the GP_IP_ID50 unit represents a very low risk through the oral route. The available evidence suggests that the risks from C. burnetii through consumption of unpasteurised milk and milk products (including cheese) are not negligible but they are lower in comparison to transmission via inhalation of aerosols from parturient products and livestock contact

Coherence Time in High Energy Proton-Nucleus Collisions

Precisely measured Drell-Yan cross sections for 800 GeV protons incident on a variety of nuclear targets exhibit a deviation from linear scaling in the atomic number A. We show that this deviation can be accounted for by energy degradation of the proton as it passes through the nucleus if account is taken of the time delay of particle production due to quantum coherence. We infer an average proper coherence time of 0.4 +- 0.1 fm/c, corresponding to a coherence path length of 8 +- 2 fm in the rest frame of the nucleus.Comment: 11 pages in LaTeX. Includes 6 eps figures. Uses epsf.st

Coherence Time Effects on J/psi Production and Suppression in Relativistic Heavy Ion Collisions

Using a coherence time extracted from high precision proton-nucleus Drell-Yan measurements and a nuclear absorption cross section extracted from pA charmonium production experiments, we study J/psi production and absorption in nucleus-nucleus collisions. We find that coherence time effects are large enough to affect the measured J/psi-to-Drell-Yan ratio. The S+U data at 200A GeV/c measured by NA38 are reproduced quantitatively without the introduction of any new parameters. However, when compared with recent NA50 measurements for Pb+Pb at 158A GeV/c, the data is not reproduced in trend or in magnitude.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure

Risk assessment for recrudescence of avian influenza in caged layer houses following depopulation : the effect of cleansing, disinfection and dismantling of equipment

Following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in a poultry house, control measures are put in place to prevent further spread. An essential part of the control measures based on the European Commission Avian Influenza Directive 2005/94/EC is the cleansing and disinfection (C&D) of infected premises. Cleansing and disinfection includes both preliminary and secondary C&D, and the dismantling of complex equipment during secondary C&D is also required, which is costly to the owner and also delays the secondary cleansing process, hence increasing the risk for onward spread. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment is presented to assess the risk of re-infection (recrudescence) occurring in an enriched colony-caged layer poultry house on restocking with chickens after different C&D scenarios. The risk is expressed as the number of restocked poultry houses expected before recrudescence occurs. Three C&D scenarios were considered, namely (i) preliminary C&D alone, (ii) preliminary C&D plus secondary C&D without dismantling and (iii) preliminary C&D plus secondary C&D with dismantling. The source-pathway-receptor framework was used to construct the model, and parameterisation was based on the three C&D scenarios. Two key operational variables in the model are (i) the time between depopulation of infected birds and restocking with new birds (TbDR) and (ii) the proportion of infected material that bypasses C&D, enabling virus to survive the process. Probability distributions were used to describe these two parameters for which there was recognised variability between premises in TbDR or uncertainty due to lack of information in the fraction of bypass. The risk assessment estimates that the median (95% credible intervals) number of repopulated poultry houses before recrudescence are 1.2 × 104 (50 to 2.8 × 106), 1.9 × 105 (780 to 5.7 × 107) and 1.1 × 106 (4.2 × 103 to 2.9 × 108) under C&D scenarios (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Thus for HPAIV in caged layers, undertaking secondary C&D without dismantling reduces the risk by 16-fold compared to preliminary C&D alone. Dismantling has an additional, although smaller, impact, reducing the risk by a further 6-fold and thus around 90-fold compared to preliminary C&D alone. On the basis of the 95% credible intervals, the model demonstrates the importance of secondary C&D (with or without dismantling) over preliminary C&D alone. However, the extra protection afforded by dismantling may not be cost beneficial in the context of reduced risk of onward spread