Awareness of climate change for adaptation of the farm sector

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Storylines regarding climate change and scenarios

WP3 develops the tools for assessing the productive and economic impact of climate change and the potential of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is achieved by focussing, along with CropM and LiveM, on significant crossing issues in specific geographical areas, natural and human resources, and farming systems. Following, the storylines regarding climate change and scenarios in the hot-spots.

The economic impact of changes in climate variability on milk production in the area of Grana Padano

Climate variability (CV) normally influences production and farm management, and climate change (CC) has precisely the effect of changing this variability. Thus, models that estimate the economic impact of CC, integrating with climatic models, agronomic, and livestock, must represent the implications of this variability on farm management. This study describes an economic model based on Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP) which assesses the impact of CC on milk production in the Grana Padano area. The model is based on 23 farm typologies from FADN that represent 856 farms in Piacenza and Cremona, two of the most important provinces for Grana Padano production. The results of the model were projected at the regional scale. The climate scenarios, current and future, are generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The forage production under these scenarios is estimated with the EPIC agronomic model. Estimates on milk production and livestock mortality are based on studies conducted in the Po valley. The nutritional needs of the cattle are estimated with the CNCPS model. Probability distribution functions (PDF) express the relations between the CV and the productive variables under both climate scenarios. These PDFs represent the expectations of farmers on the productive-climate variability in the DSP model, which is PMP calibrated based on land distribution observed in a reference year. Comparing the model results in the two scenarios indicates the effects of CC, given the opportunity to adapt the use of resources and techniques of cultivation. The structure of the model, and its economic results are presented and discussed, along with the strengths and weaknesses of this approach

Most relevant aspects of climate change in hot-spot analysis

WP3 develops the tools for assessing the productive and economic impact of climate change and the potential of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is achieved by focussing, along with CropM and LiveM, on significant crossing issues in specific geographical areas, natural and human resources, and farming systems. Following, the steps for identifying the hot-spots and the basic elements of climate change are shortly described. Next, the main economic and structural characteristics of each hot-spot are described followed by a presentation of the most relevant aspects of climate change, and of their main impacts on farm sector.

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems

In the agricultural sector, climate change (CC) affects multiple weather variables at different stages of crop cycles. CC may influence the mean level or affect the distribution of events (e.g., rainfall, temperature). This work evaluates the economic impact of CC-related changes in multiple climatic components, and the resulting uncertainty. For this purpose, a three-stage discrete stochastic programming model is used to represents farm sector of an irrigated area of Italy and to examine the influence of CC on rainfall and on maximum temperature. These variables affect the availability of water for agriculture and the water requirements of irrigated crops. The states of nature, and their change, are defined more broadly than in previous analyses; this allows examining the changes of more climatic variables and crops cultivation. The effect of CC is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future. The results show that the agricultural sector would seek to lower costs by modifying patterns of land use, farming practices and increasing the use groundwater. The overall economic impact of these changes is small and due primarily to the reduced availability of water in the future. The temperature increase is, in fact, largely offset by the effects of the increase in CO2 levels, which boosts the yield of main crops of the irrigated zone. Therefore, availability and water management becomes a crucial factor to offset the increase of evapotranspiration and of water stress resulting from the increase of temperature. However, the costs of CC are very high for some types of farming, which suffer a large reduction in income.discrete stochastic programming model, climate change, water availability, irrigation requirements, Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources.Discrete Stochastic Programming Model, climate change, water availability, irrigation requirements, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Perceptions of Present and Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability for Agricultural Systems in the Western Mediterranean Region

Many Mediterranean countries have experienced water shortages during the last 20 years and future climate change projections foresee further pressure on water resources. This will have significant implications for irrigation water management in agricultural systems in the future. Through qualitative and quantitative empirical research methods carried out on a case study on four Mediterranean farming systems located in Oristano, Italy, we sought to understand the relationship between farmers' perceptions of climate change (i.e., increased temperature and decreased precipitation) and of present and future water availability for agriculture as forecasted by climatic and crop models. We also explored asymmetries between farmers' perceptions and present and future climate change and water scenarios as well as factors influencing perceptions. Our hypotheses were that farmers' perceptions are the main drivers of actual water management practices and that sustainable practices can emerge from learning spaces designed from the understanding of the gaps between perceptions and scientific evidences. Results showed that most farmers perceived that climate change is occurring or will occur in their area. They also perceived that there has been an increased temperature trend, but also increased precipitation. Therefore, they are convinced that they have and will have enough irrigation water for agriculture in the near future, while climate change projections foresee an increasing pressure on water resources in the Mediterranean region. Such results suggest the need for (i) irrigation management policies that take into account farmers' perceptions in order to promote virtuous behaviors and improve irrigation water use efficiency; (ii) new, well-designed learning spaces to improve the understanding on climate change expectations in the near future in order to support effective adaptive responses at the farm and catchment scales

Evoluzione del clima e incertezza delle scelte sui sistemi colturali in un comprensorio irriguo del Nord Sardegna

L’analisi quantitativa dell’impatto dei cambiamenti climatici (CC) sui sistemi colturali implica l’impiego di modelli di simulazione adeguatamente calibrati. Il modello EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) (Williams, 1995) è stato ampiamente validato per simulare le risposte delle colture e dei relativi fabbisogni idrici ai CC (Adejuwon, 2005, Tourè et al., 1994). In questo lavoro, i risultati delle simulazioni effettuate con EPIC sono stati utilizzati come input per il modello di analisi economica per valutare l’impatto del CC sulle scelte dei sistemi coltutali in un comprensorio irriguo della Sardegna del nord