Comparison of the values of the Akaike information criterion (corrected for small sample sizes), for the models M0 (no direct transmission, no residual mosquito population in winter), M1 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, no residual mosquito population in winter), M2 (no direct transmission, residual mosquito population in winter) and M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and for eight possible dates for the introduction of the RVFV in the study area.

<p>Comparison of the values of the Akaike information criterion (corrected for small sample sizes), for the models M0 (no direct transmission, no residual mosquito population in winter), M1 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, no residual mosquito population in winter), M2 (no direct transmission, residual mosquito population in winter) and M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and for eight possible dates for the introduction of the RVFV in the study area.</p

Weighted prediction of the number of animals infected by direct transmission, when viraemic cows calve, and by vector-borne transmission, according to the season (dry and cold season, May-September, wet and warm season: October-April).

<p>Weighted prediction of the number of animals infected by direct transmission, when viraemic cows calve, and by vector-borne transmission, according to the season (dry and cold season, May-September, wet and warm season: October-April).</p

Graphical representation of the model.

<p>Cattle population is divided into susceptible (<i>S</i>), incubating (<i>E</i>), viraemic (<i>I</i>) and immune (<i>R</i>) individuals in each village. Two populations per village were considered depending on whether or not animals are exposed to the barter practice. Mosquito population is divided into nulliparous (<i>N</i>), parous and non-infected (<i>S</i>), parous and infected, but non-infectious (<i>E</i>, during the extrinsic incubation period), and parous, infected and infectious (<i>I</i>, after the end of the extrinsic incubation period) in each rice field. Full dark arrows represent transition from on state to the other. Full thin arrows represent demographic processus of birth and death specific to both metapopulation. Dotted lines represent infection dynamics. The full description of the parameters can be found in S1 Text. : force of infection due to direct transmission into village v, : force of infection due to vector based transmission into village v, : average force of infection due to vector based transmission into villages accepting the barter into village v (See S1 Text for development of force infection expressions related to cattle exchange practices), : force of infection for mosquitoes of rice field r.</p

Observed seroprevalence in 2009 (left) and difference between observed and predicted seroprevalence in 2009, in the studied villages.

<p>Villages with predicted seroprevalence higher than observed seroprevalence (red cross) were aggregated in the middle of the area where most rice fields are close to several villages. Villages with predicted seroprevalence lower than observed seroprevalence (pink star) were less aggregated. For most villages the differences between predicted and observed seroprevalence were low (triangle).</p

Weighted predictions of the evolution of the global seroprevalence rate (top), of the daily number of infected cattle due to direct (blue) and vector-borne (red) transmission (middle), and of the number of mosquitoes per host that are in the extrinsic incubation period (E state, blue) and infectious states (I state, red) (bottom).

<p>Dashed lines: confidence area of the weighted predictions. Grey areas: the rainy seasons (peak: dark grey and beginning/end: light grey).</p

Confidence regions of the weighted parameter values (: direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, : relative abundance of vectors during the dry and cold season, <i>H_v</i>: vector/host ratio).

<p>Confidence regions of the weighted parameter values (: direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, : relative abundance of vectors during the dry and cold season, <i>H_v</i>: vector/host ratio).</p

Weighted values of model parameters for model M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and an introduction of RVFV on 2007-09-01 (weight: 0.73) or on 2007-10-01 (weight: 0.24).

<p>Weighted values of model parameters for model M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and an introduction of RVFV on 2007-09-01 (weight: 0.73) or on 2007-10-01 (weight: 0.24).</p

Location of the villages and rice fields in the study area.

<p>The color gradient of the rice field indicates the number of villages at less than 1km. Circular areas around villages have a 1 km radius.</p

Parameters of the deterministic metapopulation model.

<p>Parameters of the deterministic metapopulation model.</p

Species-level movement networks.

<p>Each diagram represents the movement links that are specific to the species (red: by truck, dark grey: by foot, both truck and foot: blue). The last plot shows the entire network of all species.</p