Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting

Gosselin examines and reports on the various factors that contribute to successful inflation targeting. Using a panel of 21 inflation-targeting countries over the period 1990Q1-2007Q2, Gosselin finds that the ability of central banks to hit their targets varies considerably. Some of these differences can be explained by exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial development. Others are explained by differences in the targeting framework itself and the manner in which it is implemented.

Efficacy and safety of the long-term oral administration of carprofen in the treatment of osteoarthritis in dogs

The aim of this study conducted in France was to confirm the efficacy and safety of the oral administration of carprofen (Rimadyl®) at 4 mg/kg once a day during four months in the treatment of clinically chronic osteoarthritis in dogs. One hundred and ten dogs with chronic clinical signs of osteoarthritis were enrolled. The overall severity of the osteoarthritis condition and the clinical signs of osteoarthritis were assessed using visual analogue scales (VAS) on days 0, 5, 30, 60, 90 and 120. During the same visits, owners were asked to perform their own efficacy assessment through the grading of seven parameters using categorical scales. Hematological analyses were performed on days 0 and 120. Clinical blood chemistry evaluations were performed on days 0, 5, 60 and 120. The percentage of dogs showing a positive treatment effect increased from 12% on day 5 to 74% on day 120. The mean VAS scores significantly decreased throughout the study (P ≤0.05). Gastrointestinal undesirable effects likely to be related to carprofen but with no harmful consequences were observed in 5% of treated dogs. No detrimental effects of the treatment on haematological, renal and hepatic parameters were observed. These results show that carprofen at 4 mg/kg once daily can be safely used over a 4 month period in the treatment of osteoarthritis in dogs and provides a steadily increasing improvement of the clinical signs

Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting

The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks. We extend the work of Albagli and Schmidt-Hebbel (2004) by looking at a broad range of factors that can influence inflation target deviations and by identifying the empirical determinants of successful monetary policy under IT. We find that part of the cross-country and time variation in inflation deviations from targets can be explained by exchange rate movements, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial sector development. With respect to the components of the IT framework, we find that a higher inflation target and a larger inflation control range are associated with more variable inflation (and output) outcomes. Although the literature tends to suggest that greater central bank transparency is desirable, our findings imply that transparency might be associated with less satisfactory inflation performance. Interestingly, central banks using economic models do a better job of stabilizing inflation around the target and output around trend.Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary policy framework

An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia

Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and agency securities by Asian central banks. In this process, Asian central banks have accumulated large stockpiles of U.S.-dollar foreign exchange reserves. How far is the current level of reserves from that predicted by the standard macroeconomic determinants? The authors answer this question by using Pedroni's (1999) panel cointegration tests as the basis for the estimation of a long-run reserve-demand function in a panel of eight Asian emerging-market economies. This is a key innovation relative to the existing research on international reserves modelling: although the data are typically I(1), the literature ignores this fact and makes statistical inference based on unadjusted standard errors. While the authors find evidence of a positive structural break in the demand for international reserves by Asian central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 1997-98, their results indicate that the actual level of reserves accumulated in 2003-04 was still in excess relative to that predicted by the model. Therefore, as long as historical relationships hold, a slowdown in the rate of accumulation of reserves is likely. This poses negative risks for the U.S. dollar. However, both the substantial capital losses that Asian central banks would incur if they were to drastically change their holding policy and the evidence that the currency composition of reserves evolves only gradually mitigate the risks of a rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar triggered by Asian central banks.Econometric and statistical methods; International topics; Financial stability

MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM.

Les arguments de causalité et de conséquence dans les débats politiques télévisés : l’exemple du débat des chefs lors des élections canadiennes de 1993

Cette étude propose une analyse des arguments de causalité et de conséquence employés dans le discours politique afin d’en clarifier quelques dimensions pragmatiques, syntaxiques et sémantiques, en prenant pour objet le débat télévisé des chefs, en français, tenu lors des élections fédérales canadiennes d’octobre 1993. Quatre types d’arguments de causalité sont explorés : l’argument du mérite, l’argument de justification, l'argument de chance et l'argument de responsabilité. Les six arguments de conséquence analysés sont ceux de l’effet pervers, de l’inanité, de la mise en péril, de l’engagement fatal, de la prédiction autocréatrice et de l’excès de volonté. Les auteurs proposent une formalisation de ces deux catégories d’arguments et une application qui en montre la fécondité théorique.This study proposes an analysis of causal and consequential arguments used in the political discourse, in order to clarify some of their pragmatics, syntaxics and semantics dimensions, by analysing the television French debate, held during the federal election of October, 1993. Four categories of causal argument are explored: merit, justification, chance and responsability. The six consequential arguments analyzed are the perversity, the futility, the jeopardy, the fatal commitment (or slippery slope), the self-fulfilling prophecy and the overwilling. The authors propose a formalization of these two types of arguments and an example proving its theorical fertility

Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine

In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. For instance, they model and measure the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the exchange rate and income. PAC models provide a theoretical justification for the presence of lags within a dynamic equation where optimizing agents' expectations are completely rational and forward looking. This approach thereby adds theoretical depth to a model that has a good forecasting performance. To the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first study to model the U.S. trade sector using a PAC approach. Overall, the models' main elasticities are reasonable. Moreover, the authors find that the out-ofsample forecasting performance of their PAC models is at least as good as that of other models. Their results show that this theoretical structure is not added at the expense of the empirical features of the models.Econometric and statistical methods; International topics; Domestic demand and components

Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains

Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs. In these models, agents’ decisions are a function of forecasts of a desired level for the decision variable and, owing to frictions, this level is reached only gradually. In this paper, the authors use PAC models to analyze and forecast U.S. household spending. They find that the estimated models are rather rich from a theoretical and dynamic view-point. For example, the authors find that household spending is a function of forward-looking expectations, short- and long-term interest rates, human and non-human wealth, liquidity constraints, and uncertainty with respect to future business cycles. Moreover, out-of-sample forecasts and stability tests show that this theoretical structure is not added at the expense of the model’s empirical features.Economic models; Econometric and statistical methods; Business fluctuations and cycles

Supplemental Carbon Dioxide and Light Improved Tomato and Pepper Seedling Growth and Yield

The experiment was conducted to determine the effects of CO, enrichment (900 μl·liter-1, 8 hours/day) in combination with supplementary lighting of 100 μmol·s-1·m-2 (16- h photoperiod) on tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) and sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) seedling growth in the greenhouse and subsequent yield in the field. Enrichment with CO2 and supplementary lighting for » 3 weeks before transplanting increased accumulation of dry matter in shoots by » 50% compared with the control, while root dry weight increased 49% for tomato and 6270 for pepper. Early yields increased by =1570 and 11% for tomato and pepper, respectively

Directed transport in a classical lattice with a high-frequency driving

We analyze the dynamics of a classical particle in a spatially periodic potential under the influence of a periodic in time uniform force. It was shown in [S.Flach, O.Yevtushenko, Y. Zolotaryuk, Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 2358 (2000)] that despite zero average force, directed transport is possible in the system. Asymptotic description of this phenomenon for the case of slow driving was developed in [X. Leoncini, A. Neishtadt, A. Vasiliev, Phys. Rev. E 79, 026213 (2009)]. Here we consider the case of fast driving using canonical perturbation theory. An asymptotic formula is derived for the average drift velocity as a function of the system parameters and the driving law. We show that directed transport arises in an effective Hamiltonian that does not possess chaotic dynamics, thereby clarifying the relation between chaos and transport in the system. Sufficient conditions for transport are derived.Comment: 5 page