Quantifying the factors influencing people’s car type choices in Europe: Results of a stated preference survey

This study aims at tracking the evolution of the attitude of car drivers towards electro-mobility. The results of a new survey conducted in six European countries are shown. The purchase price continues to represent the major hurdle to widespread adoption of zero tailpipe emission cars.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

1st TRIMIS Horizon Scanning Session

The Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) is an open-access transport policy-support tool developed and managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to support the implementation of the Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA). One of the main objectives of TRIMIS is to provide a forward-oriented support to transport research and innovation (R&I) governance by using foresight in its technological and socioeconomic assessment process related to transport R&I. Within the TRIMIS framework, horizon scanning is applied through a structured and systematic collaborative exercise that contributes to the identification of new and emerging transport-related technologies and trends, with a potential future impact on the transport sector. Furthermore, it supports the assessment of current and future research needs and provides transport related insights to the broader European Commission foresight system contributing to a higher-level strategic framework also covering the transport domain. As part of this process, on 26 September 2019 the TRIMIS team, with support from the Unit for Knowledge Management and the EU Policy Lab of the JRC organised a sense making session entitled the 1st TRIMIS Horizon Scanning Session. It aimed at gathering insights from various transport experts with different backgrounds and make sense of previously collected, transport-related horizon scanning items through a process that could provide indications on relevant trends, new drivers of change, weak signals, discontinuities or shocks/’wild cards’/sudden unexpected events/’black swans’. This report collects and analyses the experiences that were shared and discussed during the session along with the supplementary material and initial results. Furthermore, it acts as a first input to the next step of the TRIMIS Horizon Scanning process that will involve policymakers with a focus on transport R&I.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

The future of road transport

A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming not only our vehicles, but everything about how we get around, and how we live our lives. The JRC report “The future of road transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility” looks at some main enablers of the transformation of road transport, such as data governance, infrastructures, communication technologies and cybersecurity, and legislation. It discusses the potential impacts on the economy, employment and skills, energy use and emissions, the sustainability of raw materials, democracy, privacy and social fairness, as well as on the urban context. It shows how the massive changes on the horizon represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible to larger parts of society than the current one centred on car ownership. However, new transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies to the 21st century. The improvement of governance and the development of innovative mobility solutions will be crucial to ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

EV Market Development Pathways – An Application of System Dynamics for Policy Simulation

The transport sector, in particular road transport, is a major consumer of energy and a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to climate change. There is increasing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars (e.g. in the EU, the Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 sets the limit of CO2 emissions of new passenger cars to 95 g of CO2 from 2020 [1]). Today, the global vehicle stock has more than 1 billion units and relies almost entirely on oil-based energy. According to various projections, the global vehicle fleet could double or even triple by 2050. The energy and environmental implications of such increase would not be negligible. In this context, it is argued that the electrification of the global vehicle fleet emerges as a desirable goal. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to help meet key energy and environmental goals, leading to a decrease in oil imports, an increase in energy independency and to a decrease in CO2 emissions. This paper focuses on the EV market penetration in key OECD countries as well as in China and India, considering various vehicle technologies for passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs). In particular, the paper investigates the impacts of EVs on oil demand and CO2 emissions in the countries of interest under various scenarios until 2050. For this purpose, a System Dynamics (SD) model is developed and the results of various simulations assessed. The output of the model includes possible future market shares of EVs as well as their specific energy and environmental impacts. Our results show to what extent EVs can potentially contribute to reduce oil dependency and CO2 emissions in the countries analysed beyond 2030

The effect of reducing electric car purchase incentives in the European Union

The importance of electric car purchase incentives is starting to be questioned. The objective of this paper is to explore the potential effect of reducing or removing electric car purchase public subsidies in the European Union. To this end, the system dynamics Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model is used. The size and timing of purchase incentives for this technology in European countries are investigated under eight scenarios and sensitivity analysis performed. The simulations suggest that, in the short-run, the electric car market share is higher when the subsidies remain in place. In the medium-run, a purchase subsidy scheme granting €3000 for plug-in hybrid electric cars and €4000 for battery electric cars over the period 2020–2024 yields the fastest electric car market uptake of all the scenarios considered. We conclude that, though the current evolution of the battery price is favorable, electric car purchase subsidies remain an effective policy measure to support electro-mobility in the next years.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knockout analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Soft-linking of a behavioural model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) currently have the challenge of high CAPEX mainly associated to the fuel cell. This study investigates strategies to promote FCEV deployment and overcome this initial high cost by combining a detailed simulation model of the passenger transport sector with an energy system model. The focus is on an energy system with 95% CO2 reduction by 2050. Soft-linking by taking the powertrain shares by country from the simulation model is preferred because it considers aspects such as car performance, reliability and safety while keeping the cost optimization to evaluate the impact on the rest of the system. This caused a 14% increase in total cost of car ownership compared to the cost before soft-linking. Gas reforming combined with CO2 storage can provide a low-cost hydrogen source for FCEV in the first years of deployment. Once a lower CAPEX for FCEV is achieved, a higher hydrogen cost from electrolysis can be afforded. The policy with the largest impact on FCEV was a purchase subsidy of 5 k€ per vehicle in the 2030–2034 period resulting in 24.3 million FCEV (on top of 67 million without policy) sold up to 2050 with total subsidies of 84 bln€. 5 bln€ of R&D incentives in the 2020–2024 period increased the cumulative sales up to 2050 by 10.5 million FCEV. Combining these two policies with infrastructure and fuel subsidies for 2030–2034 can result in 76 million FCEV on the road by 2050 representing more than 25% of the total car stock. Country specific incentives, split of demand by distance or shift across modes of transport were not included in this study.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Electric car purchase price as a factor determining consumers’ choice and their views on incentives in Europe

The deployment of zero-emission vehicles has the potential to drastically reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from road transport. The purpose of this study is to provide evidence on, and quantify the factors that influence, the European market for electric and fuel cell car technologies. The paper reports the results of a stated preference survey among 1,248 car owners in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. The variables that influence powertrain choice are quantified in a nested multinomial logit model. We find that the electric car purchase price continues to be a major deterrent to sales in the surveyed countries. The majority of the respondents considered government incentives as fundamental or important for considering an electric car purchase. Because of the differences in the socio-economic characteristics of consumers in each country, the effectiveness of government incentives may vary across Europe.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Modelling the impacts of EU countries’ electric car deployment plans on atmospheric emissions and concentrations

The purpose of this work is to quantify key environmental impacts of electric vehicles deployment in the European Union. This is achieved by soft-linking three models (PRIMES-TREMOVE, DIONE and SHERPA) to explore a base and an alternative scenario. The alternative scenario draws on the assessment of the national policy frameworks for alternative fuels infrastructure requested by the Directive (2014/94/EU). Five environmental indicators are examined: tailpipe CO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions as well as NO2 and PM2.5 urban background concentrations. By 2030, car travel activity is simulated to generate ca. 425 MtCO2/year in the EU28 under the alternative scenario. Compared to the base scenario, electric vehicles contribute to a 3% reduction in tailpipe CO2 emissions. Only two countries attain CO2 emission reductions greater than 10% in the model. The need for a higher level of policy ambition towards the deployment of less polluting vehicles in Europe is highlighted as a conclusion.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Assessing the impacts of electric vehicle recharging infrastructure deployment efforts in the European Union

Electric vehicles (EVs) can play an important role in improving the European Union’s (EU)’s energy supply security, reducing the environmental impact of transport, and increasing EU competitiveness. The EU aims at fostering the synchronised deployment of EVs and necessary recharging infrastructure. There is currently a lack of studies in the literature for analysing the societal impacts of EV and infrastructure deployment at continental scale. In our paper, we analyse the likely impact of related plans of the EU member states (MSs). With the help of qualitative and quantitative analyses, we study the impact of plans on recharging infrastructure deployment, contributions to the EU climate and energy goals, air quality objectives, and reinforcement of the EU’s competitiveness and job creation. We soft-link a fleet impact model with a simplified source receptor relationship model, and propose a new model to calculate job impacts. The results overall show modest impacts by 2020, as most member states’ plans are not very ambitious. According to our analysis of the plans, a reduction of CO2 emissions by 0.4%, NOx emissions by 0.37%, and PM2.5 emissions by 0.44%, as well as a gross job creation of more than 8000 jobs will be achieved by 2020. The member state plans are very divergent. For countries with more ambitious targets up to 2020, such as Austria, France, Germany, and Luxemburg, the climate, energy, and air quality impacts are significant and show what would be achievable if the EU would increase its pace of EV and infrastructure deployment. We conclude that more ambitious efforts by the member states’ to deploy electric vehicles could accelerate the reduction of CO2 emissions and lead to less dependence on fossil oil-based fuels, along with air quality improvements, while at the same time creating new job opportunities in Europe. In regards to the ratio of publicly accessible recharging points (RPs) per EV, we conclude that member states have to come up with more ambitious targets for recharging point deployment, as the current plans will lead to only one recharging point per every 20 EVs by 2020 across the EU. This paper can serve as useful input to the further the planning of EV and recharging infrastructure deployment in the EU and elsewhere. Our study highlights that the different strategies that are followed in the EU member states can be a fertile ground to identify best practices. It remains a challenge to quantify how different support policies impact EV deployment. In terms of further research needs, we identify that more detailed studies are required to determine an appropriate level of infrastructure deployment, including fast chargers.JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewable