A petro-chemical study of ancient mortars from the archaeological site of Kyme (Turkey)

Fourteen samples of ancient mortars (joint mortars and plasters) from the archaeological site of Kyme (Turkey) were studied by optical microscopy (OM), X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM-EDS) and micro- Raman spectroscopy to obtain information about their composition.The study allowed us to identify a new type of plaster inside the archaeological site of Kyme, not detected by previous studies of this site, in which vegetable fibers were intentionally added to the mixture. The combination of a petrographic analysis on thin sections by polarized light microscopy with a chemical analysis, has allowed us to highlight similarities and differences between the mortars and to get information about the evolution of constructive techniques in the archaeological area

Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data has been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010 and data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption durations between the years 1600 and 1670 is found to be statistically different from that following 1670 and represents the culminating phase of a century-scale cycle. The forecasting model is run on two datasets ofMt. Etna flank eruption durations; 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect of the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ to probabilities of 66 % and 33 %, respectively the forecasting model is used on the 1600-2010 dataset to indicate that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 68 days (± 29 days). This model can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well-documented volcanoes or for different duration data such as the duration of explosive episodes or the duration of repose periods between eruptions

Clinopyroxene from Lipari: Comparison with analogues from other Aeolian Islands, Italy

Clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the volcanic rocks of Lipari, one of the Aeolian Islands (Italy), were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron-microprobe analysis. They form three groups, related to different volcanic cycles. Although there is no evidence of tholeiitic rocks in the archipelago, the structural framework of these clinopyroxenes is close to those of clinopyroxene from subalkaline basalts of tholeiitic affinity. This feature may be ascribed to contamination of the magma by older gabbros in the lower crust, or to crystallization from an early magma of tholeiitic composition. Comparisons with analogues from other Aeolian Islands (Vulcano, Salina, Filicudi and Stromboli) highlight the fact that the Lipari clinopyroxene are low-pressure phenocrysts

Mapping the vulnerability for evacuation of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case of a volcanic unrest

Over the past few decades the Campi Flegrei territorial system was interested by intense urban expansion overlooking the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on the hazard related information, but the territorial and social features must be as well taken into account. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation would become necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events occurred in the last 10 ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the residents distribution and the outflows of routes, railway stations and harbours, necessary to leave the dangerous area, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map for evacuation, depicting the zones with different capability to support the evacuation of residents in case of renewal of volcanic activity. Basing on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0,70 people/ m2, we identified the collection points for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five microzones displaying different capability to cope with an emergency phase

Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity(1), informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities(2,3). Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential soluion(4-7); however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar ( historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62843/1/nature02205.pd