Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO₂, NO_x, O₃, SO₂, CO, PM₁₀mass, PM_2.5mass, and PM_2.5components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling instrument imprecision and spatial variability as different error types, we estimate direction and magnitude of the effects of error over a range of error types.</p

Residual susceptibility to measles among young adults in Victoria, Australia following a national targeted measles-mumps-rubella vaccination campaign

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Past measles immunisation policies in Australia have resulted in a cohort of young adults who have been inadequately vaccinated, but who also have low levels of naturally acquired immunity because immunisation programs have decreased the circulation of wild virus. A measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) immunisation campaign aimed at addressing this susceptibility to measles among young adults was conducted in Australia in 2001–2. By estimating age-specific immunity, we aimed to evaluate the success of this campaign in the state of Victoria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted serosurveys after the young adult MMR program at state and national levels to estimate immunity among young adults born between 1968–82. We compared results of the Victorian (state) surveys with the Victorian component of the national surveys and compared both surveys with surveys conducted before the campaign. We also reviewed all laboratory confirmed measles cases in Victoria between 2000–4.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Victorian state serosurveys indicated no significant change in immunity of the cohort following the young adult MMR campaign (83.9% immune pre and 85.5% immune post campaign) while the Victorian component of the national serosurvey indicated a significant decline in immunity (91.0% to 84.2%; p = 0.006). Both surveys indicated about 15% susceptibility to measles among young Victorian adults after the campaign. Measles outbreaks in Victoria between 2000–4 confirmed the susceptibility of young adults. Outbreaks involved a median of 2.5 cases with a median age of 24.5 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Victoria, the young adult MMR program appears to have had no effect on residual susceptibility to measles among the 1968–82 birth cohort. Young adults in Victoria, as in other countries where past immunisation policies have left a residual susceptible cohort, represent a potential problem for the maintenance of measles elimination.</p

Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Low-Cost Methods

n/

Neurological manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalised children and adolescents in the UK: a prospective national cohort study

BACKGROUND: The spectrum of neurological and psychiatric complications associated with paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. We aimed to analyse the range and prevalence of these complications in hospitalised children and adolescents. METHODS: We did a prospective national cohort study in the UK using an online network of secure rapid-response notification portals established by the CoroNerve study group. Paediatric neurologists were invited to notify any children and adolescents (age <18 years) admitted to hospital with neurological or psychiatric disorders in whom they considered SARS-CoV-2 infection to be relevant to the presentation. Patients were excluded if they did not have a neurological consultation or neurological investigations or both, or did not meet the definition for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (a positive PCR of respiratory or spinal fluid samples, serology for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, or both), or the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health criteria for paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS). Individuals were classified as having either a primary neurological disorder associated with COVID-19 (COVID-19 neurology group) or PIMS-TS with neurological features (PIMS-TS neurology group). The denominator of all hospitalised children and adolescents with COVID-19 was collated from National Health Service England data. FINDINGS: Between April 2, 2020, and Feb 1, 2021, 52 cases were identified; in England, there were 51 cases among 1334 children and adolescents hospitalised with COVID-19, giving an estimated prevalence of 3·8 (95% CI 2·9-5·0) cases per 100 paediatric patients. 22 (42%) patients were female and 30 (58%) were male; the median age was 9 years (range 1-17). 36 (69%) patients were Black or Asian, 16 (31%) were White. 27 (52%) of 52 patients were classified into the COVID-19 neurology group and 25 (48%) were classified into the PIMS-TS neurology group. In the COVID-19 neurology group, diagnoses included status epilepticus (n=7), encephalitis (n=5), Guillain-Barré syndrome (n=5), acute demyelinating syndrome (n=3), chorea (n=2), psychosis (n=2), isolated encephalopathy (n=2), and transient ischaemic attack (n=1). The PIMS-TS neurology group more often had multiple features, which included encephalopathy (n=22 [88%]), peripheral nervous system involvement (n=10 [40%]), behavioural change (n=9 [36%]), and hallucinations at presentation (n=6 [24%]). Recognised neuroimmune disorders were more common in the COVID-19 neurology group than in the PIMS-TS neurology group (13 [48%] of 27 patients vs 1 [<1%] of 25 patients, p=0·0003). Compared with the COVID-19 neurology group, more patients in the PIMS-TS neurology group were admitted to intensive care (20 [80%] of 25 patients vs six [22%] of 27 patients, p=0·0001) and received immunomodulatory treatment (22 [88%] patients vs 12 [44%] patients, p=0·045). 17 (33%) patients (10 [37%] in the COVID-19 neurology group and 7 [28%] in the PIMS-TS neurology group) were discharged with disability; one (2%) died (who had stroke, in the PIMS-TS neurology group). INTERPRETATION: This study identified key differences between those with a primary neurological disorder versus those with PIMS-TS. Compared with patients with a primary neurological disorder, more patients with PIMS-TS needed intensive care, but outcomes were similar overall. Further studies should investigate underlying mechanisms for neurological involvement in COVID-19 and the longer-term outcomes. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research