Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.Cointegration, Oil market, Futures prices, Price Discovery.

Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.Cointegration, oil market, futures prices, price discovery

Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach

This paper focuses on macroeconomic interdependencies between the Euro area and three transition economies (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), with the aim of establishing whether the latter are ready to adopt the Euro. The theoretical framework is based on the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis, which is empirically tested within a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using both monthly and quarterly data over the period 1993-2005, it is found that GPPP holds for the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the Euro of each Baltic country, reflecting a degree of real convergence consistent with Optimum Currency Area criteria. Further, the adopted joint modelling approach for the real exchange rates of the Baltic region outperforms a number of alternative models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts.transition economies, Euro area, (Generalised) Purchasing Power Parity, Vector Error Corrector models

Fiscal Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Some Evidence for Latin America

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal shocks using a two-country macroeconomic model for output, labour input, government spending and relative prices which provides the orthogonality restrictions for obtaining the structural shocks. Dynamic simulation techniques are then applied, in particular to shed light on the possible effects of fiscal imbalances on the real exchange rate in the case of six Latin American countries. Using quarterly data over the period 1980-2006, we find that in a majority of cases fiscal shocks are the main driving force of real exchange rate fluctuations.fiscal shocks, real exchange rate, Latin American countries

Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.cointegration, oil market, futures prices, price discovery

Constraining Sterile Neutrinos Using Reactor Neutrino Experiments

Models of neutrino mixing involving one or more sterile neutrinos have resurrected their importance in the light of recent cosmological data. In this case, reactor antineutrino experiments offer an ideal place to look for signatures of sterile neutrinos due to their impact on neutrino flavor transitions. In this work, we show that the high-precision data of the Daya Bay experi\-ment constrain the 3+1 neutrino scenario imposing upper bounds on the relevant active-sterile mixing angle $\sin^2 2 \theta_{14} \lesssim 0.06$ at 3$\sigma$ confidence level for the mass-squared difference $\Delta m^2_{41}$ in the range $(10^{-3},10^{-1}) \, {\rm eV^2}$. The latter bound can be improved by six years of running of the JUNO experiment, $\sin^22\theta_{14} \lesssim 0.016$, although in the smaller mass range $\Delta m^2_{41} \in (10^{-4} ,10^{-3}) \, {\rm eV}^2$. We have also investigated the impact of sterile neutrinos on precision measurements of the standard neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{13}$ and $\Delta m^2_{31}$ (at Daya Bay and JUNO), $\theta_{12}$ and $\Delta m^2_{21}$ (at JUNO), and most importantly, the neutrino mass hierarchy (at JUNO). We find that, except for the obvious situation where $\Delta m^2_{41}\sim \Delta m^2_{31}$, sterile states do not affect these measurements substantially.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, more discussions added, matches the published versio

Recognizing Developers' Emotions while Programming

Developers experience a wide range of emotions during programming tasks, which may have an impact on job performance. In this paper, we present an empirical study aimed at (i) investigating the link between emotion and progress, (ii) understanding the triggers for developers' emotions and the strategies to deal with negative ones, (iii) identifying the minimal set of non-invasive biometric sensors for emotion recognition during programming task. Results confirm previous findings about the relation between emotions and perceived productivity. Furthermore, we show that developers' emotions can be reliably recognized using only a wristband capturing the electrodermal activity and heart-related metrics.Comment: Accepted for publication at ICSE2020 Technical Trac

Combined NMDA Inhibitor Use in a Patient With Multisubstance-induced Psychotic Disorder

This document is an Accepted Manuscript reprinted from Journal of Addiction Medicine, Vol. 12 (3): 247-251, May 2018, with permission of Kluwer Law International. Under embargo until 1 May 2019. The Version of Record is available online at DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/ADM.0000000000000390: Novel psychoactive substance use is a major social concern. Their use may elicit or uncover unpredictably as yet undescribed clinical pictures. We aimed to illustrate a multisubstance use case indistinguishable from paranoid schizophrenia, so to alert clinicians on possibly misdiagnosing substance-induced psychotic disorders. CASE REPORT: We describe a case of a 32-year-old man who started at 18 years with cannabinoids and ketamine, and is currently using N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) antagonists. At age 23, he developed social withdrawal after being assaulted by a stranger, but did not consult psychiatrists until age 26; during this period, he was using internet-purchased methoxetamine and ketamine, and was persecutory, irritable, suspicious, and insomniac and discontinued all received medical prescriptions. He added dextromethorphan to his list of used substances. At age 31, while using phencyclidine, and, for the first time, methoxphenidine, he developed a religious delusion, involving God calling him to reach Him, and the near-death experiences ensured by NMDA antagonists backed his purpose. He received Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition diagnosis of multisubstance-induced psychotic disorder and was hospitalized 8 times, 6 of which after visiting the emergency room due to the development of extreme anguish, verbal and physical aggression, and paranoia. He reportedly used methoxphenidine, methoxyphencyclidine, ethylnorketamine, norketamine, and deschlorketamine, to achieve near-death experiences, and eventually to reach God in heavens. CONCLUSIONS: This case points to the need for better control of drugs sold on the internet. It also illustrates that people using NMDA antagonists may present clinical pictures indistinguishable from those of major psychoses and are likely to be misdiagnosed.Peer reviewe