3. Deutsche Klimatagung Tagungsband der Vortraege und Poster

Es sind die Kurzfassungen der auf der 3. Deutschen Klimatagung 1994 gehaltenen Vortraege enthalten. Die Themen sind u.a. Sturmkatastrophen, Diagnostik von globalem und regionalem Klima, Klima und Vegetation, statistische Klimaanalyse, Trends verschiedener Klimaparameter sowie regionale und globale Klimamodelle. (KW)This conference report comprises the lectures presented at the 3rd German Climate Conference in 1994. Subjects are, among others, storms, the diagnosis of global and regional climate, climate and vegetation, statistical climate analysis, trends of various climate parameters, and regional and global climate models. (KW)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(1) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

A method to estimate the statistical security for cluster separation

Cluster analysis contains several multivariate methods for the separation of patterns (clusters). Definition of the optimum, or globally best, cluster analysis is an unresolved issue. Three methods are of special importance: 1. The statistical security of cluster separation. 2. The definition of the optimal number of clusters. 3. The description of the internal cluster structure. Two new methods addressing these problems are presented. On the basis of non-hierarchical minimum-distance cluster analysis a new method is described that allows a separation of clusters in a statistically well-founded way. With this method the outstanding problems one and two can be solved. using a newly developed special rank-sum analysis, a solution of the third problem is possible. An example shows the practicability of the proposed procedures. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(23) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

The complete non-hierarchical cluster analysis

Cluster analysis contains several multivariate methods for the separation of patterns (clusters). Definition of the optimum, or globally best, cluster analysis is an unresolved issue. Two methods are of special importance: 1. The statistical security of cluster separation. 2. The definition of the optimal number of clusters. On the basis of nonhierarchical minimum-distance cluster analysis a new method is described that allows a separation of clusters in a statistically well-founded way. Applying this extended nonhierarchical cluster analysis algorithm, the following additional problems need to be solved: The generation of a suitable initial partition, the estimation of the initial number of clusters, and the error reduction by delimitation of the level of significance for cluster separation. The following solutions are proposed. Random ranking of the initial partition, derivation of the cluster number using target function and Pettitt-test, and estimation of outliers including a new classification with the clusters. The complete method is tested and discussed using a theoretical and a practical example. For the practical example, a climate classification of Europe is established which shows that the proposed improvements can be of great practical relevance. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(50) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

A note on domains of discourse. Logical know-how for integrated environmental modelling

Building computer models means implementing a mathematical structure on a piece of hardware in such a way that insights about some other phenomenon can be gained, remembered and communicated. For meaningful computer modelling, the phenomenon to be modelled must be described in a logically coherent way. This can be quite difficult, especially when a combination of highly heterogeneous scientific disciplines is needed, as is often the case in environmental research. The paper shows how the notion of a domain of discourse as developed by logicians can be used to map out the cognitive landscape of integrated modelling. This landscape is not a fixed universe, but a multiverse resonating with an evolving pluralism of domains of discourse. Integrated modelling involves a never-ending activity of translation between such domains, an activity that often goes hand in hand with major efforts to overcome conceptual confusions within given domains. For these purposes, a careful use of mathematics, including tools of formal logic presented in the paper, can be helpful. The concept of vulnerability as currently used in global change research is discussed as an example of the challenges to be met in integrated environmental modelling. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(86) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

KLIMOeKOMO - Untersuchungen zur Verwendung von Ergebnissen verschiedener Klimamodelltypen als Antrieb in Oekosystemmodellen Abschlussbericht

Available from TIB Hannover: DtF QN1(82,29) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEBundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Bonn (Germany)DEGerman

Lebensstile und globaler Energieverbrauch Analyse und Strategieansaetze zu einer nachhaltigen Energiestruktur

Lifestyle and consumption have emerged as research issues in energy and climate change related research in recent years for obvious reasons: with the emergence and the global spread of the modern 'consumer society' lifestyle induced consumption decisions by private households more and more influence total energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions. The paper discusses the use of the lifestyle concept derived from sociology and market research for household energy consumption and the potential for more sustainable changes. A main section is dedicated to a new way of decomposing country statistics on energy consumption, economic growth, CO_2 emissions, and energy mix. We detect five distinct patterns of national energy systems via a cluster analysis of country data and their change over time. These clusters represent distinct trajectories of the recent energy economic history of the country groups and define some path dependencies for energy policy options in the nearer future which are discussed briefly. The environmental kuznets curve (EKC) debate is discussed critically in the light of the more flexible and regionally adapted way of conceiving the worlds' energy system. The paper offers a quantitative the estimation of private households' contribution to total energy related CO_2 emissions, thus contributing to the assessment of lifestyle-related emissions. The final section discusses practical consequences for energy policy and lifestyle related environmental communication. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(90) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Ergebnisse und Konsequenzen : GLOWA-ELBE III Verbundvorhaben ; Schlussbericht

[no abstract available

Implementation of a parallel version of a regional climate model

A regional climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meterology and the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg based on the 'Europa' and 'Deutschland' models of the German Weather Service has been parallelized and implemented on the IBM RS/6000 SP computer system of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research including parallel input/output processing, the explicit Eulerian time-step, the semi-implicit corrections, the normal-mode initialization and the physical parameterizations of the German Weather Service. The implementation utilizes Fortran 90 and the Message Passing Interface. The parallelization strategy used is a 2D domain decomposition. This report describes the parallelization strategy, the parallel I/O organization, the influence of different domain decomposition approaches for static and dynamic load imbalances and first numerical results. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(29) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas nach Paul Hess und Helmuth Brezowski 1881-1992

Nach kurzer Behandlung der grundsaetzlichen Fragen der Zirkulationsformen, der Einteilung der Grosswetterlagen und ihrer Zusammenfassung zu Grosswettertypen werden die einzelnen Lagen naeher beschrieben. Danach wird eine umfassende Uebersicht der statistischen Auswertungen zur zeitlichen und raeumlichen Struktur der Grosswetterlagen gegeben. Die klimatologischen Charakteristika werden fuer jede Grosswetterlage an verschiedenen Stationen Europas unter Verwendung der meteorologischen Groessen Lufttemperatur und Niederschlag beschrieben. Der Anhang enthaelt die Grosswetterlagen fuer alle Tage des Zeitraumes 1881 bis 1992. (orig.)After introductory remarks on the fundamental problems of circulation patterns and the classification of the 'Grosswetterlagen' as well as their compilation to a few mean types of circulation the individual patterns of the 'Grosswetterlagen' are described in detail. A complete overview concerning the statistical investigations of the temporal and spacial structure of the 'Grosswetterlagen' are presented. The climatological attributes of each 'Grosswetterlage' are elaborated for a restricted number of European meteorological observing stations using the parameters air temperature and precipitation. A table containing the daily 'Grosswetterlage' for the period 1881 to 1992 is given in the annex. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische Informationsbibliothek4. totally new rev. ed.DEGerman