Bayesian networks for assessment of disruption to school systems under combined hazards

Exposure of school buildings to floods and earthquakes poses significant risk to the vulnerable population of students and their education process. In regions of high exposure, these hazards may often act concurrently, whereby yearly flood events weaken masonry school buildings, rendering them more vulnerable to frequent earthquake shaking. This recurring damage, combined with other functional losses, ultimately result in disruption to education delivery. The socio-economic condition of the users-community also plays a role in the extent of such disruption. A complex problem of this nature demands consideration of a large number of dimensions, to estimate the impact to the school system infrastructure in a locality. To handle the qualitative and quantitative nature of these variables, a Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed representing multiple schools in a locality as a system. Three dimensions are considered to contribute to the system disruption, namely, schools’ physical functionality loss, accessibility and use loss, and social vulnerability. The impact is quantified through the probability of the system being in various states of disruption. The BN also explores mitigating measures, such as the mobility of students between schools in the system. The general methodology is illustrated by a case-study of school buildings in Guwahati, India, whereby the majority of buildings is constructed in confined masonry with varying level of seismic performance. The physical effects of combined flood and seismic action on confined masonry buildings is assessed by nonlinear numerical modelling, and their probabilistic occurrence is expressed in terms of fragility functions corresponding to varying flood depth and peak ground acceleration

Bayesian networks for the multi-risk assessment of road infrastructure

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodological framework for the multi-risk assessment of road infrastructure systems. Since the network performance is directly linked to the functional states of its physical elements, most efforts are devoted to the derivation of fragility functions for bridges exposed to potential earthquake, flood and ground failure events. Thus, a harmonization effort is required in order to reconcile fragility models and damage scales from different hazard types. The proposed framework starts with the inventory of the various hazard-specific damaging mechanisms or failure modes that may affect each bridge component (e.g. piers, deck, bearings). Component fragility curves are then derived for each of these component failure modes, while corresponding functional consequences are proposed in a component-level damage-functionality matrix, thanks to an expert-based survey. Functionality-consistent failure modes at the bridge level are then assembled for specific configurations of component damage states. Finally, the development of a Bayesian Network approach enables the robust and efficient derivation of system fragility functions that (i) directly provide probabilities of reaching functionality losses and (ii) account for multiple types of hazard loadings and multi-risk interactions. At the network scale, a fully probabilistic approach is adopted in order to integrate multi-risk interactions at both hazard and fragility levels. A temporal dimension is integrated to account for joint independent hazard events, while the hazard-harmonized fragility models are able to capture cascading failures. The quantification of extreme events cannot be achieved by conventional sampling methods, and therefore the inference ability of Bayesian Networks is investigated as an alternative. Elaborate Bayesian Network formulations based on the identification of link sets are benchmarked, thus demonstrating the current computational difficulties to treat large and complex systems

Agent-based model on resilience-oriented rapid responses of road networks under seismic hazard

This paper explores a new pathway towards seismic resilience of Road Networks (RNs) under earthquake hazards, by leveraging post-shock rapid responses as the key to minimize the functionality losses of RNs, especially in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes. Accordingly, an agent-based modelling (ABM) framework is developed to enable the nuanced examination on resilience of earthquake-damaged RNs, when different system repair approaches are considered. In this framework, those different approaches are predicated on the damage level of individual bridges and on the system recovery timeline, i.e. the response to rehabilitation need is considered as a function of the time elapsed from the event. Each approach is represented by a different agent, whose behaviour is shaped by a set of pre-defined behavioural attributes, while the interplay among those agents is also accounted for, during the entirety of post-shock recovery campaigns. To demonstrate its applicability, the ABM framework is applied to a real-world RN across Luchon, France. As shown by the case-study, post-shock rapid responses are found to be a viable strategy to increase the recovery rate of RNs’ functionality in the immediate-, and mid-term aftermath of damaging earthquakes, and ultimately, to improve the seismic resilience thereof

Rapid earthquake loss updating of spatially distributed systems via sampling-based bayesian inference

Within moments following an earthquake event, observations collected from the affected area can be used to define a picture of expected losses and to provide emergency services with accurate information. A Bayesian Network framework could be used to update the prior loss estimates based on ground-motion prediction equations and fragility curves, considering various field observations (i.e., evidence). While very appealing in theory, Bayesian Networks pose many challenges when applied to real-world infrastructure systems, especially in terms of scalability. The present study explores the applicability of approximate Bayesian inference, based on Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain sampling algorithms, to a real-world network of roads and built areas where expected loss metrics pertain to the accessibility between damaged areas and hospitals in the region. Observations are gathered either from free-field stations (for updating the ground-motion field) or from structure-mounted stations (for the updating of the damage states of infrastructure components). It is found that the proposed Bayesian approach is able to process a system comprising hundreds of components with reasonable accuracy, time and computation cost. Emergency managers may readily use the updated loss distributions to make informed decisions

ESOPE-Equivalent Pulsing Protocols for Calcium Electroporation: An In Vitro Optimization Study on 2 Cancer Cell Models

Reversible electroporation is used to increase the uptake of chemotherapeutic drugs in local tumor treatment (electrochemotherapy) by applying the pulsing protocol (8 rectangular pulses, 1000 V/cm, 100 µs) standardized in the framework of the European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy multicenter trial. Currently, new electrochemotherapy strategies are under development to extend its applicability to tumors with different histology. Electrical parameters and drug type are critical factors. A possible approach is to test pulse parameters different from European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy but with comparable electroporation yield (European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy-equivalent protocols). Moreover, the use of non-toxic drugs combined with electroporation represents the new frontier for electrochemotherapy applications; calcium electroporation has been recently proposed as a simple tool for anticancer therapy. In vitro investigations facilitate the optimization of electrical parameters and drugs for in vivo and clinical testing. In this optimization study, new pulsing protocols have been tested by increasing the pulse number and reducing the electric field with respect to the standard. European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy-equivalent protocols have been identified in HL-60 and A431 cancer cell models, and a higher sensitivity in terms of electroporation yield has been recorded in HL-60 cells. Moreover, cell killing efficacy of European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy-equivalent protocols has been demonstrated in the presence of increasing calcium concentrations on both cell lines. Equivalent European Standard Operating Procedure on Electrochemotherapy protocols can be used to optimize the therapeutic effects in the clinic, where different regions of the same cancer tissue, with different electrical properties, might result in a differential electroporation yield of the standard protocol over the same tissue, or, eventually, in an override of the operational limits of the instrument. Moreover, using calcium can help overcome the drawbacks of standard drugs (side effects, high costs, difficult handling, preparation, and storage procedures). These results support the possibility of new treatment options in both standard electrochemotherapy and calcium electroporation, with clear advantages in the clinic

Dose-Dependent ATP Depletion and Cancer Cell Death following Calcium Electroporation, Relative Effect of Calcium Concentration and Electric Field Strength

Background: Electroporation, a method for increasing the permeability of membranes to ions and small molecules, is used in the clinic with chemotherapeutic drugs for cancer treatment (electrochemotherapy). Electroporation with calcium causes ATP (adenosine triphosphate) depletion and cancer cell death and could be a novel cancer treatment. This study aims at understanding the relationship between applied electric field, calcium concentration, ATP depletion and efficacy. Methods: In three human cell lines — H69 (small-cell lung cancer), SW780 (bladder cancer), and U937 (leukaemia), viability was determined after treatment with 1, 3, or 5 mM calcium and eight 99 μs pulses with 0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 or 1.6 kV/cm. Fitting analysis was applied to quantify the cell-killing efficacy in presence of calcium. Post-treatment intracellular ATP was measured in H69 and SW780 cells. Post-treatment intracellular ATP was observed with fluorescence confocal microscopy of quinacrine-labelled U937 cells. Results: Both H69 and SW780 cells showed dose-dependent (calcium concentration and electric field) decrease in intracellular ATP (

Management of cutaneous metastases using electrochemotherapy

Background. Cutaneous metastases may cause considerable discomfort as a consequence of ulceration, oozing, bleeding and pain. Electrochemotherapy has proven to be highly effective in the treatment of cutaneous metastases. Electrochemotherapy utilises pulses of electricity to increase the permeability of the cell membrane and thereby augment the effect of chemotherapy. For the drug bleomycin, the effect is enhanced several hundred-fold, enabling once-only treatment. The primary endpoint of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of electrochemotherapy as a palliative treatment. Methods. This phase II study is a collaboration between two centres, one in Denmark and the other in the UK. Patients with cutaneous metastases of any histology were included. Bleomycin was administered intratumourally or intravenously followed by application of electric pulses to the tumour site. Results. Fifty-two patients were included. Complete and partial response rate was 68% and 18%, respectively, for cutaneous metastases <3 cm and 8% and 23%, respectively, for cutaneous metastases >3 cm. Treatment was well-tolerated by patients, including the elderly, and no serious adverse events were observed. Conclusions. ECT is an efficient and safe treatment and clinicians should not hesitate to use it even in the elderly

Integrated optical addressing of a trapped ytterbium ion

We report on the characterization of heating rates and photo-induced electric charging on a microfabricated surface ion trap with integrated waveguides. Microfabricated surface ion traps have received considerable attention as a quantum information platform due to their scalability and manufacturability. Here we characterize the delivery of 435 nm light through waveguides and diffractive couplers to a single ytterbium ion in a compact trap. We measure an axial heating rate at room temperature of $0.78\pm0.05$ q/ms and see no increase due to the presence of the waveguide. Furthermore, the electric field due to charging of the exposed dielectric outcoupler settles under normal operation after an initial shift. The frequency instability after settling is measured to be 0.9 kHz.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure