North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models

Statistically-based seasonal hurricane outlooks for the North Atlantic were initiated by Colorado State University (CSU) in 1984, and have been issued every year since that time by CSU. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have the next longest records (1998-present) of continuous outlooks. This chapter describes how these three forecasts have evolved with time, and documents the approaches, the environmental fields, and the lead times which underpin the models’ operation. Some of the environmental parameters used in early seasonal outlooks are no longer employed, but new predictive fields have been found which appear to be more important for seasonal hurricane prediction. An assessment is made of the deterministic skill of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in real-time by CSU, NOAA, and TSR between 2003 and 2014. All methods show moderate-to-good skill for early August outlooks (prior to the most active portion of the hurricane season), low-to-moderate skill for outlooks issued in early June, and lesser skill for outlooks issued in early April. Overall, the TSR model has the most skillful predictions of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), while NOAA has the best named storm predictions issued in early August

Underweight as a risk factor for respiratory death in the Whitehall cohort study: exploring reverse causality using a 45-year follow-up

Underweight adults have higher rates of respiratory death than the normal weight but it is unclear whether this association is causal or reflects illness-induced weight loss (reverse causality). Evidence from a 45-year follow-up of underweight participants for respiratory mortality in the Whitehall study (N=18 823; 2139 respiratory deaths) suggests that excess risk among the underweight is attributable to reverse causality. The age-adjusted and smoking-adjusted risk was 1.55-fold (95% CI 1.32 to 1.83) higher among underweight compared with normal weight participants, but attenuated in a stepwise manner to 1.14 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.71) after serial exclusions of deaths during the first 5-35 years of follow-up (Ptrend<0.001)

The Sphaleron Rate in SU(N) Gauge Theory

The sphaleron rate is defined as the diffusion constant for topological number NCS = int g^2 F Fdual/32 pi^2. It establishes the rate of equilibration of axial light quark number in QCD and is of interest both in electroweak baryogenesis and possibly in heavy ion collisions. We calculate the weak-coupling behavior of the SU(3) sphaleron rate, as well as making the most sensible extrapolation towards intermediate coupling which we can. We also study the behavior of the sphaleron rate at weak coupling at large Nc.Comment: 18 pages with 3 figure

Audition in vampire bats, Desmodus rotundus

1. Within the tonotopic organization of the inferior colliculus two frequency ranges are well represented: a frequency range within that of the echolocation signals from 50 to 100 kHz, and a frequency band below that of the echolocation sounds, from 10 to 35 kHz. The frequency range between these two bands, from about 40 to 50 kHz is distinctly underrepresented (Fig. 3B). 2. Units with BFs in the lower frequency range (10–25 kHz) were most sensitive with thresholds of -5 to -11 dB SPL, and units with BFs within the frequency range of the echolocation signals had minimal thresholds around 0 dB SPL (Fig. 1). 3. In the medial part of the rostral inferior colliculus units were encountered which preferentially or exclusively responded to noise stimuli. — Seven neurons were found which were only excited by human breathing noises and not by pure tones, frequency modulated signals or various noise bands. These neurons were considered as a subspeciality of the larger sample of noise-sensitive neurons. — The maximal auditory sensitivity in the frequency range below that of echolocation, and the conspicuous existence of noise and breathing-noise sensitive units in the inferior colliculus are discussed in context with the foraging behavior of vampire bats

Patient-maintained sedation for oral surgery using a target-controlled infusion of propofol - a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and efficacy of a new patient-maintained propofol system for conscious sedation in dentistry. DESIGN: Prospective clinical trial SETTING: Department of Sedation, Glasgow Dental Hospital and School, 2001 SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Patients scheduled for oral surgery with conscious sedation. Exclusions included ASA IV -V, inability to use the handset, opioid use and severe respiratory disease. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were given intravenous propofol to a level of 1.0 microg/ml (reducing from 1.5 microg/ml) using a target controlled infusion system, they then controlled their sedation level by double-clicking a handset which on each activation increased the propofol concentration by 0.2 microg/ml. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Oxygen saturation, patient satisfaction, and surgeon satisfaction. RESULTS: Twenty patients were recruited, 16 female and four male. Nineteen patients completed sedation and treatment successfully. Mean lowest oxygen saturation was 94%. No patients were over-sedated. All patients successfully used the system to maintain a level of sedation adequate for their comfort. Patient and surgeon satisfaction were consistently high. CONCLUSIONS: Initial experience with this novel system has confirmed safety, patient satisfaction and surgeon satisfaction

Cryo-EM structure of a helicase loading intermediate containing ORC-Cdc6-Cdt1-MCM2-7 bound to DNA

In eukaryotes, the Cdt1-bound replicative helicase core MCM2-7 is loaded onto DNA by the ORC-Cdc6 ATPase to form a prereplicative complex (pre-RC) with an MCM2-7 double hexamer encircling DNA. Using purified components in the presence of ATP-γS, we have captured in vitro an intermediate in pre-RC assembly that contains a complex between the ORC-Cdc6 and Cdt1-MCM2-7 heteroheptamers called the OCCM. Cryo-EM studies of this 14-subunit complex reveal that the two separate heptameric complexes are engaged extensively, with the ORC-Cdc6 N-terminal AAA+ domains latching onto the C-terminal AAA+ motor domains of the MCM2-7 hexamer. The conformation of ORC-Cdc6 undergoes a concerted change into a right-handed spiral with helical symmetry that is identical to that of the DNA double helix. The resulting ORC-Cdc6 helicase loader shows a notable structural similarity to the replication factor C clamp loader, suggesting a conserved mechanism of action

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Non-thermal emission processes in massive binaries

In this paper, I present a general discussion of several astrophysical processes likely to play a role in the production of non-thermal emission in massive stars, with emphasis on massive binaries. Even though the discussion will start in the radio domain where the non-thermal emission was first detected, the census of physical processes involved in the non-thermal emission from massive stars shows that many spectral domains are concerned, from the radio to the very high energies. First, the theoretical aspects of the non-thermal emission from early-type stars will be addressed. The main topics that will be discussed are respectively the physics of individual stellar winds and their interaction in binary systems, the acceleration of relativistic electrons, the magnetic field of massive stars, and finally the non-thermal emission processes relevant to the case of massive stars. Second, this general qualitative discussion will be followed by a more quantitative one, devoted to the most probable scenario where non-thermal radio emitters are massive binaries. I will show how several stellar, wind and orbital parameters can be combined in order to make some semi-quantitative predictions on the high-energy counterpart to the non-thermal emission detected in the radio domain. These theoretical considerations will be followed by a census of results obtained so far, and related to this topic... (see paper for full abstract)Comment: 47 pages, 5 postscript figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, in pres

A new perspective of the climatological features of upper-level cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere

This study presents a detailed view of the seasonal variability of upper-level cut-off lows (COLs) in the Southern Hemisphere. The COLs are identified and tracked using data from a 36-year period of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The objective identification of the COLs uses a new approach, which is based on 300 hPa relative vorticity minima, and three restrictive criteria of the presence of a cold-core, stratospheric potential vorticity intrusion, and cut-off cyclonic circulation. The highest COL activity is in agreement with previous studies, located near three main continental areas (Australia, South America, and Africa), with maximum frequencies usually observed in the austral autumn. The COL mean intensity values show a marked seasonal and spatial variation, with maximum (minimum) values during the austral winter (summer), a unique feature that has not been observed previously in studies based on the geopotential. The link between intensity and lysis is examined, and finds that weaker systems are more susceptible to lysis in the vicinity of the Andes Cordillera, associated with the topographic Rossby wave. Lysis and genesis regions are close to each other, confirming that COLs are quasi-stationary systems. Also, COLs tend to move eastward and are faster over the higher latitudes. The mean growth/decay rates coincide with the major genesis and lysis density regions, such as the significant decay values across the Andes all year. As a consequence of using vorticity for the tracking method a longer lifetime of COLs is detected than in other studies, but this does not affect the total frequency of occurrence. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the differences in seasonality are due to uncertainties in the reanalyses and the methods used to identify COLs

Explicit Model Checking of Very Large MDP using Partitioning and Secondary Storage

The applicability of model checking is hindered by the state space explosion problem in combination with limited amounts of main memory. To extend its reach, the large available capacities of secondary storage such as hard disks can be exploited. Due to the specific performance characteristics of secondary storage technologies, specialised algorithms are required. In this paper, we present a technique to use secondary storage for probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes. It combines state space exploration based on partitioning with a block-iterative variant of value iteration over the same partitions for the analysis of probabilistic reachability and expected-reward properties. A sparse matrix-like representation is used to store partitions on secondary storage in a compact format. All file accesses are sequential, and compression can be used without affecting runtime. The technique has been implemented within the Modest Toolset. We evaluate its performance on several benchmark models of up to 3.5 billion states. In the analysis of time-bounded properties on real-time models, our method neutralises the state space explosion induced by the time bound in its entirety.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24953-7_1