The Great American Crime Decline : Possible Explanations

This chapter examines the most important features of the crime decline in the United States during the 1990s-2010s but also takes a broader look at the violence declines of the last three centuries. The author argues that violent and property crime trends might have diverged in the 1990s, with property crimes increasingly happening in the online sphere and thus traditional property crime statistics not being reflective of the full picture. An important distinction is made between ‘contact crimes’ and crimes that do not require a victim and offender to be present in the same physical space. Contrary to the uncertainties engendered by property crime, the declines in violent (‘contact’) crime are rather general, and have been happening not only across all demographic and geographic categories within the United States but also throughout the developed world. An analysis of research literature on crime trends has identified twenty-four different explanations for the crime drop. Each one of them is briefly outlined and examined in terms of conceptual clarity and empirical support. Nine crime decline explanations are highlighted as the most promising ones. The majority of these promising explanations, being relative newcomers in the crime trends literature, have not been subjected to sufficient empirical scrutiny yet, and thus require further research. One potentially fruitful avenue for future studies is to examine the association of the most promising crime decline explanations with improvements in self-control

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980-2010

Objectives: Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010. Methods: Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980-2010 period. Results: Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels. Conclusions: There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980-2010

Objectives: Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010. Methods: Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980-2010 period. Results: Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels. Conclusions: There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

New directions in research on immigration, crime, law, and justice

From the early twentieth century onward, research has found little to no support for a positive association between immigration and crime (Hayford 1911). In fact, much available research finds the opposite; more immigration leads to less crime.  While the scholarly community has largely debunked as myth the idea that more immigrants lead to more crime, there remain many questions about the nature of the relationship between immigration and crime. Three articles in this special issue take up these more nuanced questions. The research presented in this special issue contributes new findings and perspectives on immigration, crime, law, and justice. The analyses range from studies of the relationship between undocumented immigration and crime among youthful offenders to studies of newspaper coverage of immigration and crime in Europe. Moreover, the questions addressed are informed by a productive mixture of quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence from the present and the past.  As we look to the future, we encourage scholars to build from the work presented herein and to seek diverse data to build a better understanding of the complex ways that immigration, crime, law, and justice are interconnected.&nbsp

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980–2010

Objectives: Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010. Methods: Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980-2010 period. Results: Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels. Conclusions: There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

When Does a Drug Market Become a Drug Market? Finding the Boundaries of Illicit Event Concentrations

The difficulties of forming valid measurements of social phenomena have been well documented in social science research (Blalock 1971; Denton and O’Malley 1999; Murphy and Arroyo 2000). As the concept under study becomes more abstract, so too does its measurement. The spatial world is no exception to this problem as we frequently rely on convenient spatial boundaries such as census areas to compartmentalize a phenomenon in a meaningful way. In this chapter we illustrate this problem through the conceptualization and operationalization of drug markets. After we have explained some of the nuances of drug market construction and ‘creation’ in detail, we argue that many of the current measurements used to spatially define them are subject to validity issues. We therefore propose a hierarchical clustering methodology that provides a more refined indicator of market activity. We conclude with a summary of implications for crime analysts, police resource allocation, and theory testing