EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA, A COMPARATIVE STUDY

A recurrent issue in the empirical literature that relates real exchange rate levels and growth is the relatively undervalued level of the Asian currencies when compared to Latin American and African ones for the period 1970 to 1999. In most works, higher per capita growth rates and lower currency levels emerge for Asian countries, which appears to be a regional pattern. For the Latin American and African cases, the pattern seems to be the opposite. Appreciation cycles are constantly showing up together with stop and go growth episodes. Accordingly, a central issue to understand the East and Southeast Asian success, as compared to the Latin American and African failures, could be found in the way they managed their exchange rate policies and on the evolution of their real exchange rate levels. The objective of this paper is to compare the evolution of exchange rate policies and levels in Asia and Latin America from 1970 to 1999. The work reviews some aspects of exchange rate management for some of the countries in these regions based on a survey of case studies. It also presents an evolution of real exchange rate levels against the US dollar for a set of 20 countries based on World Bank data and on an exchange rate distortion index.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence

Several studies have tried to identify the relationship between growth and misaligned or overvalued currencies. Many works (Easterly (2001) and Fajnzylber et alii (2002)), find negative correlations between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a long list of developing countries since the seventies; the more overvalued the currency, the smaller the per capita growth rates. Even after controlling the regressions for several types of variables, the studies cannot reject the statistical significance of overvalued exchange rates in explaining growth. This paper presents new econometric evidence for the exchange rate levels and growth relation based on a panel data study for 58 developing countries from 1960 until 1999 using PPP deviation measures. Our main contribution here is to estimate growth regressions with a real exchange rate index that deals with changes in real GDP per capita levels. We use a new overvaluation index that takes into account variations in real per capita incomes, adjusting, thus, our exchange rate estimates for the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect. By correcting traditional real exchange rate annual estimates for GDP per capita increases, we intend to control our whole series for appreciations due to productivity increases as many authors do for some specific years.Exchange Rate Levels, Overvaluations, Growth

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development : theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements toanalyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our mainhypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitivecurrencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the manufacturing sector in theeconomy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existenceof increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating technologicalchange and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paperis empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chileand Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currencyovervaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is beinginflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demandand prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrialsector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrializationif there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

Efeitos da apreciação cambial na poupança interna: analise teórica e evidências para o Brasil

Esta nota tem por objetivo apresentar perspectivas teóricas que exploram possíveis canais macro dos efeitos da apreciação cambial e algumas evidências empíricas para o caso brasileiro. O trabalho discute os efeitos da apreciação (depreciação) cambial nos níveis de renda, consumo e poupança interna e analisa o caso brasileiro recente

Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence.

According to the development approach to exchange rates, competitive currencies have been a key factor in most East and Southeast Asian successful growth strategies. There is also today an important empirical literature that relates overvaluations to low per capita growth rates. While the econometric literature on this issue is relatively rich, theoretical analysis of channels through which real exchange rate levels could affect economic development are very scarce. This paper intends to contribute to the debate by bringing more theoretical elements and providing new econometric evidence to the connections between real exchange rate levels and development

Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence.

According to the development approach to exchange rates, competitive currencies have been a key factor in most East and Southeast Asian successful growth strategies. There is also today an important empirical literature that relates overvaluations to low per capita growth rates. While the econometric literature on this issue is relatively rich, theoretical analysis of channels through which real exchange rate levels could affect economic development are very scarce. This paper intends to contribute to the debate by bringing more theoretical elements and providing new econometric evidence to the connections between real exchange rate levels and development