External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire. METHODS: External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373 112 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5-year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries. RESULTS: There were 1719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was lower in women: the QCancer10, Wells, Tao, Guesmi and Ma models were the best performing with AUCs between 0.63 and 0.66. Assessment of calibration was possible for six models in men and women. All would require country-specific recalibration if estimates of absolute risks were to be given to individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk models based on easily obtainable data have relatively good discrimination in a UK population. Modelling studies are now required to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing stratified risk-based CRC screening

Sodium Reduction, Metabolomic Profiling, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Untreated Black Hypertensives.

Dietary sodium restriction has multiple beneficial effects on cardiovascular health. The underlying mechanisms are not fully understood, and the roles of metabolomics have been rarely studied. We aimed to test the hypothesis that the reduction in dietary sodium intake would induce changes in metabolomic profiling among black hypertensives, and the changes would be associated with reduced blood pressure (BP) and improved skin capillary density. A total of 64 untreated black hypertensives were included from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over trial of sodium reduction. The participants were given either 9 slow sodium tablets (10 mmol sodium per tablet) or placebo tablets daily for 6 weeks, they then crossed over to receive the other tablets for another 6 weeks, while on reduced sodium diet aiming at achieving daily sodium intake around 2.0 g. Untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed in paired serum samples, which were collected at the end of each period, so were BP and capillary density. Mixed-effects models were used. There were 34 metabolites identified with raw P's<0.05. Among those, 2 metabolites including β-hydroxyisovalerate and methionine sulfone were significantly increased with sodium reduction (false discovery rate =0.006 and 0.099, respectively). Increased β-hydroxyisovalerate was associated with reduced office systolic BP and ambulatory daytime systolic BP, whereas increased methionine sulfone was associated with reduced 24-hour diastolic BP, ambulatory nighttime diastolic BP, and increased skin capillary density. Our results suggest that dietary sodium reduction increases the circulating levels of β-hydroxyisovalerate and methionine sulfone. Further studies are warranted. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00152074

Modest Sodium Reduction Increases Circulating Short-Chain Fatty Acids in Untreated Hypertensives: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

High-sodium diet may modulate the gut microbiome. Given the circulating short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) are microbial in origin, we tested the hypothesis that the modest sodium reduction would alter circulating SCFA concentrations among untreated hypertensives, and the changes would be associated with reduced blood pressure (BP) and improved cardiovascular phenotypes. A total of 145 participants (42% blacks, 19% Asian, 34% females) were included from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover trial of sodium reduction with slow sodium or placebo tablets, each for 6 weeks. Targeted circulating SCFA profiling was performed in paired serum samples, which were collected at the end of each period, so as all outcome measures. Sodium reduction increased all 8 SCFAs, among which the increases in 2-methylbutyrate, butyrate, hexanoate, isobutyrate, and valerate were statistically significant (ps0.05). In females, changes in isobutyrate, isovalerate, and 2-methylbutyrate were inversely associated with reduced BPs (ps<0.05). Increased valerate was associated with decreased carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cf-PWV) (p=0.040). Our results show that dietary sodium reduction increases circulating SCFAs, supporting that dietary sodium may influence the gut microbiome in humans. There is a sex difference in SCFA response to sodium reduction. Moreover, increased SCFAs are associated with decreased BPs and improved arterial compliance