Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

Introduction A number of breast cancer risk prediction models have been developed to provide insight into a woman\u27s individual breast cancer risk. Although circulating levels of estradiol in postmenopausal women predict subsequent breast cancer risk, whether the addition of estradiol levels adds significantly to a model\u27s predictive power has not previously been evaluated. Methods Using linear regression, the authors developed an imputed estradiol score using measured estradiol levels (the outcome) and both case status and risk factor data (for example, body mass index) from a nested case-control study conducted within a large prospective cohort study and used multiple imputation methods to develop an overall risk model including both risk factor data from the main cohort and estradiol levels from the nested case-control study. Results The authors evaluated the addition of imputed estradiol level to the previously published Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model for breast cancer risk prediction within the larger Nurses\u27 Health Study cohort. The follow-up was from 1980 to 2000; during this time, 1,559 invasive estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cases were confirmed. The addition of imputed estradiol levels significantly improved risk prediction; the age-specific concordance statistic increased from 0.635 ± 0.007 to 0.645 ± 0.007 (P \u3c 0.001) after the addition of imputed estradiol. Conclusion Circulating estradiol levels in postmenopausal women appear to add to other lifestyle factors in predicting a woman\u27s individual risk of breast cancer

Risk factors for ductal and lobular breast cancer: results from the nurses' health study

Introduction Ductal and lobular carcinomas are the two most common types of invasive breast cancer. Whether well-established risk factors are differentially associated with risk on the basis of histologic subtype is not clear. We prospectively investigated the association between a number of hormonal and nonhormonal exposures and risk defined by histologic subtype among 4,655 ductal and 659 lobular cases of postmenopausal breast cancer from the Nurses\u27 Health Study. Methods Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by histologic subtype and time period was used to examine the association between risk factors and the incidence of ductal and lobular subtypes. For each exposure, we calculated the P value for heterogeneity using a likelihood ratio test comparing models with separate estimates for the two subtypes versus a single estimate across subtypes. Results The associations with age at menarche (P-heterogeneity (het) = 0.03), age at first birth (P-het \u3c 0.001) and postmenopausal hormone use (P-het \u3c 0.001) were more strongly associated with lobular cancers. The associations with age, nulliparity, parity, age at menopause, type of menopause, alcohol intake, adult body mass index (BMI), BMI at age 18, family history of breast cancer and personal history of benign breast disease did not vary by subtype (P-het ≥ 0.08). Results were similar when we restricted the analyses to estrogen receptor-positive and progesterone receptor-positive tumors. Conclusions These data indicate that breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and the differential association with a number of risk factors is suggestive of etiologically distinct tumors. Epidemiological analyses should continue to take into account a modifying role of histology

Pregnancy and helminth infections.

It has been proposed that helminth infection may be particularly detrimental during pregnancy, through adverse effects on maternal anaemia and on birth outcomes, and that anthelminthic treatment during pregnancy will therefore be particularly beneficial. However, the few treatment trials that have been conducted have given, but little support to this notion and further trials in settings of nutritional stress are needed. It has also been proposed that prenatal exposure to helminth infection has an important effect on the development of the foetal immune response. There is evidence that this may impact, long-term, upon responses to helminth and nonhelminth antigens, and to allergens. Exposure to helminths in utero may also have nonspecific effects that may modify the offspring's susceptibility to diseases mediated by inflammation, including metabolic disorders. The mechanisms of such effects are not known, but they deserve to be explored as current epidemiological findings suggest the possibility of primary prevention for inflammatory conditions such as allergy, through intervention during pregnancy

Is the biology of breast cancer changing? A study of hormone receptor status 1984-1986 and 1996-1997

Using archived tumours, those from 1984-1986 and 1996-1997 underwent immunohistochemistry for hormone receptors and grade analysis. A significant shift towards more ER-positive and low-grade disease was found; this appears to reflect screening practices, but could still influence survival

Adolescent diet and risk of breast cancer

BACKGROUND: Early life exposures, including diet, have been implicated in the etiology of breast cancer. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted among participants in the Nurses' Health Study who completed a 24-item questionnaire about diet during high school. There were 843 eligible cases diagnosed between onset of study (1976) and before the return of the high school diet questionnaire (1986), who were matched 10:1 with controls on the basis of age. RESULTS: Women who had, during adolescence, a higher consumption of eggs, vegetable fat and fiber had a lower risk of breast cancer, whereas risk of breast cancer was increased among women who consumed more butter. CONCLUSIONS: A possible association of elements of adolescent diet with risk of breast cancer is reported, but the findings require confirmation in prospective study

Isolation of Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria in Children Investigated for Pulmonary Tuberculosis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the frequency and clinical significance of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) isolates among children investigated for pulmonary tuberculosis in a rural South African community. METHODS: Children were investigated for pulmonary tuberculosis as part of a tuberculosis vaccine surveillance program (2001–2005). The clinical features of children in whom NTM were isolated, from induced sputum or gastric lavage, were compared to those with culture-proven M. tuberculosis. RESULTS: Mycobacterial culture demonstrated 114 NTM isolates from 109 of the 1,732 children investigated, a crude yield of 6% (95% CI 5–7). The comparative yield of positive NTM cultures from gastric lavage was 40% (95% CI 31–50), compared to 67% (95% CI 58–76) from induced sputum. 95% of children with NTM isolates were symptomatic. Two children were HIV-infected. By contrast, M. tuberculosis was isolated in 187 children, a crude yield of 11% (95% CI 9–12). Compared to those with culture-proven M. tuberculosis, children with NTM isolates were less likely to demonstrate acid-fast bacilli on direct smear microscopy (OR 0.19; 95% 0.0–0.76). Children with NTM were older (p<0.0001), and more likely to demonstrate constitutional symptoms (p = 0.001), including fever (p = 0.003) and loss of weight or failure to gain weight (p = 0.04), but less likely to demonstrate a strongly positive tuberculin skin test (p<0.0001) or radiological features consistent with pulmonary tuberculosis (p = 0.04). DISCUSSION: NTM were isolated in 6% of all children investigated for pulmonary tuberculosis and in more than one third of those with a positive mycobacterial culture. NTM may complicate the diagnosis of PTB in regions that lack capacity for mycobacterial species identification. The association of NTM isolates with constitutional symptoms suggestive of host recognition requires further investigation

Impact of metabolic comorbidity on the association between body mass index and heatlh-related quality of life: a Scotland-wide cross-sectional study of 5,608 participants

&lt;p/&gt;Background: The prevalence of obesity is rising in Scotland and globally. Overall, obesity is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and reduced health-related quality of life. Studies suggest that "healthy obesity" (obesity without metabolic comorbidity) may not be associated with morbidity or mortality. Its impact on health-related quality of life is unknown. &lt;p/&gt;Methods: We extracted data from the Scottish Health Survey on self-reported health-related quality of life, body mass index (BMI), demographic information and comorbidity. SF-12 responses were converted into an overall health utility score. Linear regression analyses were used to explore the association between BMI and health utility, stratified by the presence or absence of metabolic comorbidity (diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia or cardiovascular disease), and adjusted for potential confounders (age, sex and deprivation quintile). &lt;p/&gt;Results: Of the 5,608 individuals, 3,744 (66.8%) were either overweight or obese and 921 (16.4%) had metabolic comorbidity. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship whereby health utility was highest among overweight individuals and fell with increasing BMI. There was a significant interaction with metabolic comorbidity (p = 0.007). Individuals with metabolic comorbidty had lower utility scores and a steeper decline in utility with increasing BMI (morbidly obese, adjusted coefficient: -0.064, 95% CI -0.115, -0.012, p = 0.015 for metabolic comorbidity versus -0.042, 95% CI -0.067, -0.018, p = 0.001 for no metabolic comorbidity). &lt;p/&gt;Conclusions: The adverse impact of obesity on health-related quality of life is greater among individuals with metabolic comorbidity. However, increased BMI is associated with reduced health-related quality of life even in the absence of metabolic comorbidity, casting doubt on the notion of "healthy obesity"

Boosting BCG with recombinant modified vaccinia ankara expressing antigen 85A: Different boosting intervals and implications for efficacy trials

Objectives. To investigate the safety and immunogenicity of boosting BCG with modified vaccinia Ankara expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), shortly after BCG vaccination, and to compare this first with the immunogenicity of BCG vaccination alone and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A was administered more than 10 years after BCG vaccination. Design. There are two clinical trials reported here: a Phase I observational trial with MVA85A; and a Phase IV observational trial with BCG. These clinical trials were all conducted in the UK in healthy, HIV negative, BCG naı¨ve adults. Subjects were vaccinated with BCG alone; or BCG and then subsequently boosted with MVA85A four weeks later (short interval). The outcome measures, safety and immunogenicity, were monitored for six months. The immunogenicity results from this short interval BCG prime–MVA85A boost trial were compared first with the BCG alone trial and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A vaccination was administered many years after vaccination with BCG. Results. MVA85A was safe and highly immunogenic when administered to subjects who had recently received BCG vaccination. When the short interval trial data presented here were compared with the previous long interval trial data, there were no significant differences in the magnitude of immune responses generated when MVA85A was administered shortly after, or many years after BCG vaccination. Conclusions. The clinical trial data presented here provides further evidence of the ability of MVA85A to boost BCG primed immune responses. This boosting potential is not influenced by the time interval between prior BCG vaccination and boosting with MVA85A. These findings have important implications for the design of efficacy trials with MVA85A. Boosting BCG induced anti-mycobacterial immunity in either infancy or adolescence are both potential applications for this vaccine, given the immunological data presented here. Trial Registration. ClinicalTrials.Oxford University was the sponsor for all the clinical trials reported here

Decline in breast cancer incidence due to removal of promoter: combination estrogen plus progestin

Combination estrogen plus progestin causes breast cancer. In light of this causal relation, the rapid decline in breast cancer incidence noted in 2003, following an earlier and slower reduction in incidence from 1999, raises important issues regarding the proportion of this decline that may be due to a reduction in the use of combination therapy by postmenopausal women. The context of these national trends is reviewed and the strong link to the use of hormone therapy is discussed, after noting that screening cannot explain any substantial component of these trends. The rapid decrease in incidence, most evident among women aged 50 to 69 years and in estrogen receptor positive tumors, that parallels the decline in combination hormone use is consistent with a promoter effect for estrogen plus progestins

Natural variation in immune responses to neonatal mycobacterium bovis bacillus calmette-guerin (BCG) vaccination in a cohort of Gambian infants

Background There is a need for new vaccines for tuberculosis (TB) that protect against adult pulmonary disease in regions where BCG is not effective. However, BCG could remain integral to TB control programmes because neonatal BCG protects against disseminated forms of childhood TB and many new vaccines rely on BCG to prime immunity or are recombinant strains of BCG. Interferon-gamma (IFN-) is required for immunity to mycobacteria and used as a marker of immunity when new vaccines are tested. Although BCG is widely given to neonates IFN- responses to BCG in this age group are poorly described. Characterisation of IFN- responses to BCG is required for interpretation of vaccine immunogenicity study data where BCG is part of the vaccination strategy. Methodology/Principal Findings 236 healthy Gambian babies were vaccinated with M. bovis BCG at birth. IFN-, interleukin (IL)-5 and IL-13 responses to purified protein derivative (PPD), killed Mycobacterium tuberculosis (KMTB), M. tuberculosis short term culture filtrate (STCF) and M. bovis BCG antigen 85 complex (Ag85) were measured in a whole blood assay two months after vaccination. Cytokine responses varied up to 10 log-fold within this population. The majority of infants (89-98% depending on the antigen) made IFN- responses and there was significant correlation between IFN- responses to the different mycobacterial antigens (Spearman’s coefficient ranged from 0.340 to 0.675, p=10-6-10-22). IL-13 and IL-5 responses were generally low and there were more non-responders (33-75%) for these cytokines. Nonetheless, significant correlations were observed for IL-13 and IL-5 responses to different mycobacterial antigens Conclusions/Significance Cytokine responses to mycobacterial antigens in BCG-vaccinated infants are heterogeneous and there is significant inter-individual variation. Further studies in large populations of infants are required to identify the factors that determine variation in IFN- responses