First experience of seismodeformation monitoring of Baikal rift zone (by the example of South-Baikal earthquake of 27 August 2008)

A novel method of data processing – a structural functions curvature analysis method – was applied to the time series of seismodeformation monitoring of Baikal rift zone from April to November 2008, revealing the unique features of monitoring variable behaviour that can be considered as a revelation of precursors to the intensive South-Biakal earthquake (<I>M</I>=6.3, at 09:31 on 27 August 2008). The idea of a new approach leans upon basic ideas of modern physics of self-organized criticality and open non-equilibrium systems in general

Flicker-noise spectroscopy in earthquake prediction research

International audienceThe problem of earthquake prediction and the methods of identification of geophysical precursory signals are discussed. To get information on the dynamics of earthquake preparation processes, fluctuations in geophysical time series are analyzed with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. Integral indices ? power spectra and various moments ("structural functions") ? are used as information relations. We demonstrate that the method allows us to reveal earthquake precursors

NEW APPROACH TO STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN THE SOUTH BAIKAL REGION ON THE BASIS OF ROCK DEFORMATION MONITORING DATA: METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS

The Southern Baikal is located within the actively developing Baikal rift zone (BRZ) that is characterized by a significant seismic potential, and M>7 earthquakes occur periodically with intensive shaking in the epicenters (up to 10 units). The problem of prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes has always been critical for this region, considering its increasing urbanization, industrial clusters and transport systems. The article describes the methodology based on rock deformation monitoring data, which aims at developing a technology capable of efficient prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes. In the Institute of Earth’s Crust SB RAS a set of studies is carried out in order to solve this problem, including those associated with the instrumental study of current movements of the lithosphere through GPS geodesy and deformations of rocks by strain gauges. The existing GPS sites and deformation measurements are combined into the Large-Scale Research Facilities "South Baikal instrumental complex for monitoring hazardous geodynamic processes" in frame of the Shared Research Facilities "Geodynamics and Geochronology" at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science.In this article, the deformation monitoring methodology is described in application to the monitoring sites installed in the study area. The description includes the details of its conceptual basis, technical support and data processing methods. The discussion focuses on the instrumental measurements of rock deformation related to three strong events in the study area – Kultuk (August 27, 2008), Bystrinskoe (September 21, 2020), and Kudara (December 10, 2020) earthquakes. The features of the deformation process before these seismic events are given special attention with account of the structural-geodynamic settings and positions of local monitoring sites relative to the earthquake epicenters

НОВЫЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗУ СИЛЬНЫХ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ В ЮЖНО-БАЙКАЛЬСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ НА ОСНОВЕ ДАННЫХ МОНИТОРИНГА ДЕФОРМАЦИИ ГОРНЫХ ПОРОД: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ И РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ

The Southern Baikal is located within the actively developing Baikal rift zone (BRZ) that is characterized by a significant seismic potential, and M>7 earthquakes occur periodically with intensive shaking in the epicenters (up to 10 units). The problem of prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes has always been critical for this region, considering its increasing urbanization, industrial clusters and transport systems. The article describes the methodology based on rock deformation monitoring data, which aims at developing a technology capable of efficient prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes. In the Institute of Earth’s Crust SB RAS a set of studies is carried out in order to solve this problem, including those associated with the instrumental study of current movements of the lithosphere through GPS geodesy and deformations of rocks by strain gauges. The existing GPS sites and deformation measurements are combined into the Large-Scale Research Facilities "South Baikal instrumental complex for monitoring hazardous geodynamic processes" in frame of the Shared Research Facilities "Geodynamics and Geochronology" at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science.In this article, the deformation monitoring methodology is described in application to the monitoring sites installed in the study area. The description includes the details of its conceptual basis, technical support and data processing methods. The discussion focuses on the instrumental measurements of rock deformation related to three strong events in the study area – Kultuk (August 27, 2008), Bystrinskoe (September 21, 2020), and Kudara (December 10, 2020) earthquakes. The features of the deformation process before these seismic events are given special attention with account of the structural-geodynamic settings and positions of local monitoring sites relative to the earthquake epicenters.Южное Прибайкалье (ЮП) находится в пределах активно развивающейся Байкальской рифтовой зоны (БРЗ), обладающей значительным сейсмическим потенциалом. Здесь периодически происходят землетрясения с магнитудой более 7 и с интенсивностью сотрясений в эпицентрах до 10 баллов. В условиях высокой степени урбанизации ЮП и активного развития в его пределах промышленных кластеров и транспортных систем существенно повышается актуальность проблемы прогноза сильных землетрясений. В ИЗК СО РАН для решения этой проблемы проводится комплекс исследований по разным направлениям. Одно из них связано с инструментальным изучением современных движений литосферы на больших базах посредством GPS-геодезии и деформаций горных пород на малых базах штанговыми тензометрическими датчиками. Существующе пункты GPS и деформационных измерений объединены в уникальную научную установку «Южно-Байкальский инструментальный комплекс для мониторинга опасных геодинамических процессов» (УНУ «ЮБИК»), входящую в состав ЦКП «Геодинамика и геохронология».В статье рассмотрены методические вопросы деформационного мониторинга на малых базах. Описаны его концептуальная основа, техническая база и методы обработки получаемого фактического материла. На примере произошедших в последнее время в ЮП трех сильных землетрясений – Култукского (27.08.2008 г.), Быстринского (21.09.2020 г.) и Кударинского (10.12.2020 г.) – показаны предшествующие им особенности развития деформаций горных пород, а также влияние на них структурно-геодинамических условий в местах расположения пунктов мониторинга и пространственного положения этих пунктов относительно готовящегося очага землетрясения