Determining relative importance of variables in developing and validating predictive models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple regression models are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines and automated model selection procedures are frequently used to identify independent predictors. However, determination of relative importance of potential predictors and validating the fitted models for their stability, predictive accuracy and generalizability are often overlooked or not done thoroughly.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a case study aimed at predicting children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who are at low risk of Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS), we propose and compare two strategies, bootstrapping and random split of data, for ordering potential predictors according to their relative importance with respect to model stability and generalizability. We also propose an approach based on relative increase in percentage of explained variation and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for developing models where variables from our ordered list enter the model according to their importance. An additional data set aimed at identifying predictors of prostate cancer penetration is also used for illustrative purposes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age is chosen to be the most important predictor of TLS. It is selected 100% of the time using the bootstrapping approach. Using the random split method, it is selected 99% of the time in the training data and is significant (at 5% level) 98% of the time in the validation data set. This indicates that age is a stable predictor of TLS with good generalizability. The second most important variable is white blood cell count (WBC). Our methods also identified an important predictor of TLS that was otherwise omitted if relying on any of the automated model selection procedures alone. A group at low risk of TLS consists of children younger than 10 years of age, without T-cell immunophenotype, whose baseline WBC is < 20 × 10⁹/L and palpable spleen is < 2 cm. For the prostate cancer data set, the Gleason score and digital rectal exam are identified to be the most important indicators of whether tumor has penetrated the prostate capsule.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model selection procedures based on bootstrap re-sampling and repeated random split techniques can be used to assess the strength of evidence that a variable is truly an independent and reproducible predictor. Our methods, therefore, can be used for developing stable and reproducible models with good performances. Moreover, our methods can serve as a good tool for validating a predictive model. Previous biological and clinical studies support the findings based on our selection and validation strategies. However, extensive simulations may be required to assess the performance of our methods under different scenarios as well as check their sensitivity to a random fluctuation in the data.</p

Dynamic Effects of Food Consistency on Chewing Motions

The purpose of the study was to find evidence of how different types of food consistency affect chewing motions, especially the forward, downward and sidewise extents of motion of the lower jaw. Nineteen individuals with intact tooth sequence, aged from 20 to 37 years, were asked to chew three types of food of different consistency (banana, bread, carrot). The motions of the lower jaw were recorded by ELITE system, i.e. the measurement instrument that by stereo-photo-grametric procedures calculates space co-ordinates of markers on faces of the study subjects. The system enables continuous recording of lower jaw motions in three dimensions, without any possibility of the study subjects’ influencing the operation of the instrument, which significantly decreases the possibility of error. Study results have shown that in all 19 subjects a greater food consistency increases the extent of chewing motion. In each individual study subject different average values were found for equal shifts of lower jaw when chewing the same type of food. Although varying from subject to subject, the chewing cycle depends to a great extent on food consistency. By increasing the consistency of a bite, the extent of lower jaw motion has increased in every single study subject

Enhanced absorption Hanle effect on the Fg=F->Fe=F+1 closed transitions

We analyse the Hanle effect on a closed $F_g\to F_e=F_g+1$ transition. Two configurations are examined, for linear- and circular-polarized laser radiation, with the applied magnetic field collinear to the laser light wavevector. We describe the peculiarities of the Hanle signal for linearly-polarized laser excitation, characterized by narrow bright resonances at low laser intensities. The mechanism behind this effect is identified, and numerical solutions for the optical Bloch equations are presented for different transitions.Comment: to be published in J. Opt. B, special issue on Quantum Coherence and Entanglement (February 2001

Kinetics-based design of a flow platform for highly reproducible on demand synthesis of gold nanoparticles with controlled size between 50 and 150 nm and their application in SERS and PIERS sensing

Seeded-growth synthetic protocols enable precise control of particle size and shape, crucial for many sensing applications. However, scaling-up these syntheses in a reproducible way is challenging, as minimal variation in process parameters such as seed size, concentration or reaction temperature can significantly alter the final product. Flow reactors enable tight control in the process parameters and high reproducibility of the synthesis, representing a potential technology to perform seeded-growth syntheses in large scale. This work reports the design of a flow platform for the controlled synthesis of spherical gold nanoparticles with size up to 150nm through a seeded-growth approach, and their use in Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS) and Photoinduced Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (PIERS). The particle growth kinetics were studied via in situ time-resolved UV–Vis spectroscopy. The spectroscopic data were fitted with a kinetic model, which was subsequently used for the design of the reactor. The kinetics-based design approach enabled fast translation of the growth synthesis in flow, eventually allowing the on demand flow synthesis of particles with controllable size, ranging from 50 to 150nm, with high reproducibility and full precursor conversion. The particles were tested for SERS and PIERS for different substrates, including warfare agents and biomolecules, with enhancement factors between 103 and 108 depending on the analyte, demonstrating their potential for detection of various analytes

Effects of serum proteins on corrosion behavior of ISO 5832–9 alloy modified by titania coatings

Stainless steel ISO 5832–9 type is often used to perform implants which operate in protein-containing physiological environments. The interaction between proteins and surface of the implant may affect its corrosive properties. The aim of this work was to study the effect of selected serum proteins (albumin and γ-globulins) on the corrosion of ISO 5832–9 alloy (trade name M30NW) which surface was modified by titania coatings. These coatings were obtained by sol– gel method and heated at temperatures of 400 and 800 °C. To evaluate the effect of the proteins, the corrosion tests were performed with and without the addition of proteins with concentration of 1 g L−1 to the physiological saline solution (0.9 % NaCl, pH 7.4) at 37 °C. The tests were carried out within 7 days. The following electrochemical methods were used: open circuit potential, linear polarization resistance, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. In addition, surface analysis by optical microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) method was done at the end of weekly corrosion tests. The results of corrosion tests showed that M30NW alloy both uncoated and modified with titania coatings exhibits a very good corrosion resistance during weekly exposition to corrosion medium. The best corrosion resistance in 0.9 % NaCl solution is shown by alloy samples modified by titania coating annealed at 400 °C. The serumproteins have no significant effect onto corrosion of investigated biomedical steel. The XPS results confirmed the presence of proteins on the alloy surface after 7 days of immersion in proteincontaining solutions.The investigations were supported by the National Science Centre project No. N N507 501339. The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. Janusz Sobczak and Dr. hab. Wojciech Lisowski from Institute of Physical Chemistry of PAS for XPS surface analyses

The effects of grain shape and frustration in a granular column near jamming

We investigate the full phase diagram of a column of grains near jamming, as a function of varying levels of frustration. Frustration is modelled by the effect of two opposing fields on a grain, due respectively to grains above and below it. The resulting four dynamical regimes (ballistic, logarithmic, activated and glassy) are characterised by means of the jamming time of zero-temperature dynamics, and of the statistics of attractors reached by the latter. Shape effects are most pronounced in the cases of strong and weak frustration, and essentially disappear around a mean-field point.Comment: 17 pages, 19 figure

Regionalism and changing regional order in the Pacific Islands

Institutional developments in Pacific Islands regionalism have been dramatic in recent years. These include the changing role of the Parties to the Nauru Agreement, a grouping of eight ‘tuna-rich’ Pacific Island states that is transforming the dynamics of regional fisheries; the emergence of a more activist Melanesian Spearhead Group, which comprises the four largest economies of the Pacific Islands and is leading the process of regional economic integration; and the establishment of the Pacific Islands Development Forum, which promises a more inclusive ‘regionalism through partnerships’ approach in addressing climate change and sustainable development issues. This new dynamism is driven by the discontent of a growing number of island states with the established regional order,defined by prevailing institutions, power and ideas, and by a desire to assert greater control over their own futures. Against the backdrop of an increasingly dynamic geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, Pacific Island states are using alternative regional frameworks to develop new approaches to the challenges facing them