A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling

For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks

Minería de datos para el descubrimiento de patrones en enfermedades respiratorias en Bogotá, Colombia

Trabajo de InvestigaciónEl presente proyecto se basa en la aplicación de minería de datos mediante el algoritmo de clustering K- means que permita la generación de un modelo descriptivo con el análisis de los datos y con el objetivo de identificar posibles comportamientos en enfermedades respiratorias en la ciudad de Bogotá. El conjunto de clústeres generados por la herramienta RapidMiner es la recopilación de datos de un periodo de cinco años de 2012 a 2016, en donde se contemplan el número de casos asociados a 184 diagnósticos de enfermedades respiratorias y la edad de los pacientes corresponde de 0 a 5 años.Trabajo de Investigación1. GENERALIDADES 2. OBJETIVOS 3. JUSTIFICACIÓN 4. DELIMITACIÓN 5. MARCO REFERENCIAL 6. METODOLOGÍA 7. FUENTES DE EXTRACCIÓN Y SUS VARIABLES 8. DISEÑO 9. SELECCIÓN DE ALGORITMOS DE CLUSTERING 10. RECONOCER PATRONES A PARTIR DE LA INFORMACIÓN RECOPILADA 11. CONCLUSIONES 12. TRABAJOS FUTUROS 13. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS 14. ANEXOSPregradoIngeniero de Sistema

Gait in Pregnancy-related Pelvic girdle Pain: amplitudes, timing, and coordination of horizontal trunk rotations

Walking is impaired in Pregnancy-related Pelvic girdle Pain (PPP). Walking velocity is reduced, and in postpartum PPP relative phase between horizontal pelvis and thorax rotations was found to be lower at higher velocities, and rotational amplitudes tended to be larger. While attempting to confirm these findings for PPP during pregnancy, we wanted to identify underlying mechanisms. We compared gait kinematics of 12 healthy pregnant women and 12 pregnant women with PPP, focusing on the amplitudes of transverse segmental rotations, the timing and relative phase of these rotations, and the amplitude of spinal rotations. In PPP during pregnancy walking velocity was lower than in controls, and negatively correlated with fear of movement. While patients’ rotational amplitudes were larger, with large inter-individual differences, spinal rotations did not differ between groups. In the patients, peak thorax rotation occurred earlier in the stride cycle at higher velocities, and relative phase was lower. The earlier results on postpartum PPP were confirmed for PPP during pregnancy. Spinal rotations remained unaffected, while at higher velocities the peak of thorax rotations occurred earlier in the stride cycle. The latter change may serve to avoid excessive spine rotations caused by the larger segmental rotations

Neimark-Sacker bifurcation for periodic delay differential equations, Nonlinear Anal. Theor

Abstract. The time-periodic scalar delay differential equation ˙x(t) = γf(t, x(t − 1)) is considered, which leads to a resonant bifurcation of the equilibrium at critical values of the parameter. Using Floquet theory, spectral projection and center manifold reduction, we give conditions for the stability properties of the bifurcating invariant curves and fourperiodic orbits. The coefficients of the third order normal form are derived explicitly. We show that the 1:4 resonance has no effect on equations of the form ˙z(t) = −γr(t)g(x(t−1))

Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment