Long Memory in Import and Export Price Inflation and Persistence of Shocks to the Terms of Trade

Long memory models have been successfully used to investigate the dynamic time-series behavior of inflation rates based on the CPI and WPI. However, almost no attention has been paid to import and export price inflation, nor to the terms of trade which they make up. This article investigates the dynamics of the terms of trade by focusing first on the time-series characteristics of these price series. It tests for long memory in export and import price inflation series and estimates the fractional differencing parameter using a number of approaches. To give a better idea of the degree of persistence of each series, estimates of the impulse responses are computed which take into account possible fractional integration. The dynamic behavior in changes in the terms of trade is then related to the long memory behavior of the import and export price inflation series. In a sample of eleven economies for which data is available, evidence of long memory in import and export price inflation occurs in about half the cases. Granger (1980) points out that the natural occurrence of long memory may be attributed to aggregation in macroeconomic series. Our analysis provides evidence of an alternative explanation, namely that long-memory may result from the differencing of a linear relationship between non-cointegrating variables. Specifically, the results from our analysis of eleven economies reveal that shocks to the terms of trade will persist if the constituent price inflation series are not cointegratedlong memory, terms of trade, imported inflation

Finite-Sample Optimality of Tests in a Structural Equation

No abstract.

Regulation of LRRK2 Expression Points to a Functional Role in Human Monocyte Maturation

Genetic variants of Leucine-Rich Repeat Kinase 2 (LRRK2) are associated with a significantly enhanced risk for Parkinson disease, the second most common human neurodegenerative disorder. Despite major efforts, our understanding of LRRK2 biological function and regulation remains rudimentary. In the present study we analyze LRRK2 mRNA and protein expression in sub-populations of human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). LRRK2 mRNA and protein was found in circulating CD19+ B cells and in CD14+ monocytes, whereas CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were devoid of LRRK2 mRNA. Within CD14+ cells the CD14+CD16+ sub-population of monocytes exhibited high levels of LRRK2 protein, in contrast to CD14+CD16- cells. However both populations expressed LRRK2 mRNA. As CD14+CD16+ cells represent a more mature subset of monocytes, we monitored LRRK2 expression after in vitro treatment with various stress factors known to induce monocyte activation. We found that IFN-γ in particular robustly increased LRRK2 mRNA and protein levels in monocytes concomitant with a shift of CD14+CD16− cells towards CD14+CD16+cells. Interestingly, the recently described LRRK2 inhibitor IN-1 attenuated this shift towards CD14+CD16+ after IFN-γ stimulation. Based on these findings we speculate that LRRK2 might have a role in monocyte maturation. Our results provide further evidence for the emerging role of LRRK2 in immune cells and regulation at the transcriptional and translational level. Our data might also reflect an involvement of peripheral and brain immune cells in the disease course of PD, in line with increasing awareness of the role of the immune system in PD

Safety of aromatase inhibitors in the adjuvant setting

The third-generation aromatase inhibitors (AIs) letrozole, anastrozole, and exemestane are replacing tamoxifen as adjuvant therapy in most postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. Although AIs have demonstrated superior efficacy and better overall safety compared with tamoxifen in randomized controlled trials, they may not provide the cardioprotective effects of tamoxifen, and bone loss may be a concern with their long-term adjuvant use. Patients require regular bone mineral density monitoring, and prophylactic bisphosphonates are being evaluated to determine whether they may protect long-term bone health. AIs decrease the risks of thromboembolic and cerebrovascular events compared with tamoxifen, and the overall rate of cardiovascular events in patients treated with AIs is within the range seen in age-matched, non-breast-cancer populations. AIs are also associated with a lower incidence of endometrial cancer and fewer vaginal bleeding/discharge events than tamoxifen. Compared with tamoxifen, the incidence of hot flashes is lower with anastrozole and letrozole but may be higher with exemestane. Generally, adverse events with AIs are predictable and manageable, whereas tamoxifen may be associated with life-threatening events in a minority of patients. Overall, the benefits of AIs over tamoxifen are achieved without compromising overall quality of life

Why Functional Pre-Erythrocytic and Bloodstage Malaria Vaccines Fail: A Meta-Analysis of Fully Protective Immunizations and Novel Immunological Model

Background: Clinically protective malaria vaccines consistently fail to protect adults and children in endemic settings, and at best only partially protect infants. Methodology/Principal Findings: We identify and evaluate 1916 immunization studies between 1965-February 2010, and exclude partially or nonprotective results to find 177 completely protective immunization experiments. Detailed reexamination reveals an unexpectedly mundane basis for selective vaccine failure: live malaria parasites in the skin inhibit vaccine function. We next show published molecular and cellular data support a testable, novel model where parasite-host interactions in the skin induce malaria-specific regulatory T cells, and subvert early antigen-specific immunity to parasite-specific immunotolerance. This ensures infection and tolerance to reinfection. Exposure to Plasmodium-infected mosquito bites therefore systematically triggers immunosuppression of endemic vaccine-elicited responses. The extensive vaccine trial data solidly substantiate this model experimentally. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude skinstage-initiated immunosuppression, unassociated with bloodstage parasites, systematically blocks vaccine function in the field. Our model exposes novel molecular and procedural strategies to significantly and quickly increase protective efficacy in both pipeline and currently ineffective malaria vaccines, and forces fundamental reassessment of central precepts determining vaccine development. This has major implications fo

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead