The Challenges of the "New Economy" for Monetary Policy

The advent and spread of information and communication technologies (ICTs) increase potential output growth . It is uncertain to what extent and for how long they do so. We use the term "new economy" (NE) to describe the acceleration in potential output growth and the attendant and partly temporary slowdown in inflation. Assessing the NE is however a complicated and delicate task. The impact of the NE on the conduct of monetary policy may differ depending on the time scale. In a long-run perspective, the central bank could capitalise on the NE to set lower inflation targets. In the short to medium term, central banks should be cautious when identifying changing patterns in potential output growth, as temporary errors in appreciation may have an asymmetrical impact on economic stability: the production instability that could result from central banks mistakenly perceiving the advent of a NE would be greater than that generated by the failure to recognise a genuine rise in potential output growth.Monetary policy ; Productivity ; New economy ; Uncertainty ; Measurement issues.

Trends in "structural" productivity levels in the major industrialized countries.

Estimating returns to hours worked and the employment rate provides us with an original interpretation of changes in US productivity and other industrialized countries' catch-up with US productivity levels over recent decades.Productivity ; Employment rate ; Working time ; Technical frontier.

ICT Demand Behaviour: an International Comparison

This study aims to provide some empirical explanations for the gaps in ICT diffusion between industrialized countries, especially European countries vis-à-vis the United States. The panel data cover eleven OECD countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. These annual macroeconomic data span the 1981-2005 period.The analysis provides some original results: (i) the impact on ICT diffusion of the level of education and market rigidities has changed over time. The correlation of ICT diffusion, positive with the level of education and negative with market rigidities, increased over time (in absolute terms) until the middle of the 1990s; (ii) In each country, the estimates show a decrease over time of the price-elasticity of demand for ICT (in absolute terms). More precisely, the elasticity of substitution of ICT vis-à-vis all production factors are close to or greater than 2 at the beginning of the 1980s and close to 1 in the middle of the 2000s; (iii) The estimates confirm the positive impact of the share of the population with a higher education and the negative impact of market rigidities on ICT diffusion. These effects are heightened when ICT diffusion is already substantialICT, investment, factor demand, productivity.

The Rocky Ride of Break-even-inflation rates.

The correlation matrix between break-even inflation rate movements and real interest rate movements across several countries shows puzzling features. Correlation is significantly positive for nearly all cross-border pairs whereas it is nil, positive or negative unsystematically within countries. By means of a correlation matrix decomposition, we provide an explanation for this puzzle.Inflation-linked bonds ; Break-even inflation rates

Capital Utilisation and Retirement

This empirical analysis aims at assessing the effect of the economic climate and the intensity of capital utilisation on companies’ capital retirement behaviour. It is conducted using individual company data, as well as original data on the degree of utilisation of production factors. The sample includes 6,998 observations over the period 1996-2008. This database is, to our knowledge, unique for the empirical analysis of the intensity of capital utilisation on firms’ capital retirement behaviour. We adjust for endogeneity biases by means of instrumental variables. The main results obtained from the estimation of capital retirement models may be summarised as follows: i) The retirement rate decreases with the variations in cyclical pressures measured by the changes in output and the workweek of capital; this relation corresponds to a countercyclical decelerator effect on capital retirement; ii) The capital retirement rate increases with the structural intensity of capital utilisation; this effect, which corresponds to a wear and tear one, is nevertheless small compared to the decelerator one; iii) The profit rate does not have a significant impact on the retirement rate. Compared with the existing literature, here mainly Mairesse and Dormont (1985), the contribution of these results is to show, through the use of unique survey data, that the effect of the intensity of capital utilisation on capital retirement is structurally positive, via a wear and tear effect, and cyclically negative, via a decelerator effect which completes that already taken into account via the effect of changes in value added.Capital, Capital measure, Capital retirement, Capital utilisation.

Productivity Growth and Levels in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Twentieth Century.

This study compares labor and total factor productivity (TFP) in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the very long (since 1890) and medium (since 1980) runs. During the past century, the United States has overtaken the United Kingdom and become the leading world economy. During the past 25 years, the four countries have also experienced contrasting advances in productivity, in particular as a result of unequal investment in information and communication technology (ICT). The past 120 years have been characterized by: (i) rapid economic growth and large productivity gains in all four countries; (ii) a long decline in productivity in the United Kingdom relative to the United States, and to a lesser extent also relative to France and Japan, a relative decline that was interrupted by the second world war (WW2); (iii) the remarkable catching-up to the United States by France and Japan after WW2, interrupted in the case of Japan during the 1990s. Capital deepening (at least to the extent this can be measured) accounts for a large share of the variations in performance; increasingly during the past 25 years, this has meant ICT capital deepening. However, the capital contribution to growth varies considerably over time and across the four countries, and it is always less important, except in Japan, than the contribution of the various other factors underlying TFP growth, such as, among others, labor skills, technical and organizational changes and knowledge spillovers. Most recently (in 2006), before the current financial world crisis, hourly labor productivity levels were slightly higher in France than in the United States, and noticeably lower in the United Kingdom (by roughly 10%) and even lower in Japan (30%), while TFP levels are very close in France, the United Kingdom and the United States, but much lower (40%) in Japan.Productivity, growth accounting, macro-economic history.

Opportunity Costs of Having a Child, Financial Constraints and Fertility.

Economic theory often assumes that the opportunity costs of having a child and financial constraints have a simultaneous but opposite influence on fertility. This empirical paper aims to test the concomitance of these effects using the answers to an original survey carried out in 2003 amongst nearly 1,000 French employees, giving information about the impact of their working schedule on the number of children they intend to have. The statistical analysis, based on a "ceteris paribus" approach using Log it estimates, strongly confirms the simultaneous presence of these two explanatory dimensions.Family Size ; Fertility ; Work-Life Balance

The decreasing returns on working time: An empirical analysis on panel country data

An empirical analysis is conducted on two panels of 18 OECD countries to test whether the elasticity of hourly productivity to working time is negative and decreasing with working time itself. If so, the decreasing returns on working time could be indicative of a fatigue effect that increases with working time. We find that the elasticity of productivity per hour to working time is negative and decreasing with working time, but its coefficient is not strongly significant. This study offers empirical support for the hypothesis of a fatigue effect that increases with working time, but with some reservations.Productivity, Working time, decreasing returns.

Investment in Information and Communication Technologies: an Empirical Analysis

Recent economic literature has identified sizeable differences across industrialised countries in the diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) throughout the production structure. This paper addresses the question of whether differences in the price elasticity of demand for ICTs could explain why Europe lags behind the United States in terms of ICT diffusion. We use annual macroeconomic data covering the period 1975-2001 and consider five countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States. Europe's lag in ICT diffusion does not appear to be linked to cross-country differences in the price elasticity of demand for ICT products. Our results suggest that at least part of the gap in ICT diffusion should be ascribed to more structural cross-country differences. The estimated value of the price-elasticity of computer hardware and software is generally lower than -1 which, given the decline in the relative price of these products, explains the increase in their share of investment expenditure and GDP. This situation is characteristic of a diffusion stage and is necessarily temporary.ICT ; Investment ; Factor demand

Do product market regulations in upstream sectors curb productivity growth? Panel data evidence for OECD countries

The paper focuses on the influence of upstream competition for productivity outcomes in downstream sectors. This relation is illustrated with a neo-Schumpeterian theoretical model of innovation (Aghion et al., 1997) with market imperfections in the production of intermediate goods. In this context, upstream market imperfections create barriers to competition in downstream markets and upstream producers use their market power to share innovation rents sought by downstream firms. Thus, lack of competition in upstream markets curbs incentives to improve productivity downstream, negatively affecting productivity outcomes. We test this prediction by estimating an error correction model that differentiates the potential downstream effects of lack of upstream competition in situations close and far from the global technological frontier. We measure competition upstream with regulatory burden indicators derived from OECD data on sectoral product market regulation and the industry-level efficiency improvement and the distance to frontier variables by means of a multifactor productivity (MFP) index. Panel regressions are run for 15 OECD countries and 20 sectors over the 1985-2007 period with country, sector and year fixed effects. We find clear evidence that anticompetitive regulations in upstream sectors have curbed MFP growth downstream over the past 15 years. These effects tend to be strongest for observations (i.e. country/sector/period triads) that are close to the global technological frontier. Our results suggest that, measured at the average distance to frontier and average level of anticompetitive regulations, the marginal effect of increasing competition by easing such regulations is to increase MFP growth by between 1 and 1.5 per cent per year in the OECD countries covered by our sample. Our results are robust to changes in the way MFP and the regulatory burden indicators are constructed, as well as to variations in the sample of countries and/or sectors.Productivity, Growth, Regulations, Competition, Catch-up.