The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001-2009 to levels inconsistent with long-term EMU participation; and (b) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non-credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms the sustainability of the EMU is in question.currency crises, bonds market, expectations, fiscal guarantees, contagion

The option of last resort: A two-currency EMU

This article, originally published at www.roubini.com on 7 February 2010, spells out our two-currency EMU proposal as a plan of last resort for resolving the present EMU sovereign-debt crisis. The key ingredients of our proposal involve a temporary split of the euro into two currencies, both run by the European Central Bank. The hard euro will be maintained by the core-EMU members whereas periphery EMU countries will adopt for a suitable period of time the weak euro. All existing debts will continue to be denominated in strong-euro terms. The plan involves a one-off devaluation of the weak euro versus the strong one, simultaneously with the introduction of far-reaching reforms and rapid fiscal consolidation in the periphery EMU countries. We argue that due to enhanced market credibility, our two-tier euro plan has a realistic chance of success in resolving the EMU crisis, if all other approaches fail

Solution Properties for Pertubed Linear and Nonlinear Integrals Equations

In this study we consider perturbative series solution with respect to a parameter {\epsilon} > 0. In this methodology the solution is considered as an infinite sum of a series of functional terms which usually converges fast to the exact desired solution. Then we investigate perturbative solutions for kernel perturbed integral equations and prove the convergence in an appropriate ranges of the perturbation series. Next we investigate perturbation series solutions for nonlinear perturbations of integral equations of Hammerstein type and formulate conditions for their convergence. Finally we prove the existence of a maximal perturbation range for non linear integral equations

The relationship between Higher Education and labour market in Greece : the weakest link?

The high level of graduate unemployment, even though it is acknowledged as one of the most distinctive characteristics of the Greek labour market, it has not attracted enough attention in the academic literature. This paper utilizes micro-data from the Labour Force Survey in order to investigate how the employment situation of young (aged 35 and below) graduates varies across fields of study. The findings suggest that graduates of disciplines that have high levels of private sector employment, such as Polytechnics and Computer Science, are in general better off in the Greek labour market. On the other hand, graduates of disciplines that are traditionally related to the needs of the public sector, such as Sociology and Humanities, face poor employment prospects. The findings of this study highlight the need for drastic reforms of the Higher Education system

Persistent left superior vena cava mistaken for nodal metastasis: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Evaluation of the mediastinum is crucial for patients with lung cancer. Mediastinal lymph node metastases play a dramatic role in the process of staging. Physicians should be aware of the potential pitfalls regarding mediastinal evaluation. This case report provides an example.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 57-year-old Caucasian man who presented with a four-month history of non-productive cough. He was diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer. Initially, it was thought to be inoperable due to the presence of a para-aortic lymph node. A more careful examination of the mediastinum revealed that the "lymph node" was in fact a persistent left superior vena cava.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study highlights the difficulties in mediastinal staging, especially when intravenous contrast is not used. The recognition of this vascular malformation dramatically changed the therapeutic decisions, giving our patient the opportunity of surgical resection. To the best of our knowledge, such correlation has not been described in English literature.</p

Immunotherapy of Cancer: Developments and Reference Points, an Unorthodox Approach.

Oncology is currently a sector of medical science with accelerated progress due to rapid technological development, the advancement in molecular biology, and the invention of many innovative therapies. Immunotherapy partially accounts for this advance, since it is increasingly playing an important role in the treatment of cancer patients, bringing on a sense of hope and optimism through a series of clinical studies and cases with spectacular results. Immunotherapy, after the initial successes it experienced in the early 20th century, was forgotten after chemotherapy and radiotherapy prevailed and developed slowly in the background. Today, it is the new hope for cancer treatment, despite the unorthodox path it has followed. In this article, we study the course and key points of the discovery of immune-oncology from the oncologist's point of view. We also record the questions that have been posed about immunotherapy that sometimes lead to confusion or stalemate

Authentication with Weaker Trust Assumptions for Voting Systems

Some voting systems are reliant on external authentication services. Others use cryptography to implement their own. We combine digital signatures and non-interactive proofs to derive a generic construction for voting systems with their own authentication mechanisms, from systems that rely on external authentication services. We prove that our construction produces systems satisfying ballot secrecy and election verifiability, assuming the underlying voting system does. Moreover, we observe that works based on similar ideas provide neither ballot secrecy nor election verifiability. Finally, we demonstrate applicability of our results by applying our construction to the Helios voting system

Perturbations of Gauss-Bonnet Black Strings in Codimension-2 Braneworlds

We derive the Lichnerowicz equation in the presence of the Gauss-Bonnet term. Using the modified Lichnerowicz equation we study the metric perturbations of Gauss-Bonnet black strings in Codimension-2 Braneworlds.Comment: 26 pages, no figures, clarifying comments and one reference added, to be published in JHE

Early prediction of COVID-19 outcome using artificial intelligence techniques and only five laboratory indices

We aimed to develop a prediction model for intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients using artificial neural networks (ANN). We assessed 25 laboratory parameters at first from 248 consecutive adult COVID-19 patients for database creation, training, and development of ANN models. We developed a new alpha-index to assess association of each parameter with outcome. We used 166 records for training of computational simulations (training), 41 for documentation of computational simulations (validation), and 41 for reliability check of computational simulations (testing). The first five laboratory indices ranked by importance were Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, Lactate Dehydrogenase, Fibrinogen, Albumin, and D-Dimers. The best ANN based on these indices achieved accuracy 95.97%, precision 90.63%, sensitivity 93.55%. and F1-score 92.06%, verified in the validation cohort. Our preliminary findings reveal for the first time an ANN to predict ICU hospitalization accurately and early, using only 5 easily accessible laboratory indices